It’s the offseason, meaning bold predictions are running amok. Some are lukewarm at best. Others feel like they’re so far out of context that it’s laughable at best.
Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr recently shared his 100 bold predictions for the 2024 NFL season, with each team mentioned at least once. They ranged from Caleb Williams finishing with more touchdown passes as a rookie than Peyton Manning to a coach being traded to a franchise this offseason.
As for the Houston Texans? Orr thinks the defending AFC South champions will remain competitive under DeMeco Ryans in Year 2, but they won’t improve their 10-7 win total from last season.
This is my first truly hot take of this piece. I am very excited to argue with a still-nascent fan base that just logged onto football for the first time in four years in 2024 to fight about how I don’t understand the game (true, I’ll admit it), or that I’m irrelevant and my predictions don’t matter (also true!) or that I’m the same clown who loudly projected the Patriots would win the AFC East last year (how am I still working?). I love the Texans, but their schedule rips this year and it’s going to be hard to replicate previous success even through the clear and obvious upgrades they made this offseason. This is not an anti–C.J. Stroud or DeMeco Ryans take. It is a pro-parity take, though, and when a team upshifts into a schedule that, after Week 7, becomes a bit of a minefield, there’s no telling what might happen.
It’s not that Orr thinks Houston will regress. He still thinks double-digit wins are on the table as Stroud builds on his historic Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.
But an improved record doesn’t necessarily mean a better franchise. The Texans played a fourth-place schedule and faced off against the NFC South as their NFC counterpart en route to the first division title in four years.
The four franchises combined to go 27-41 overall, while Houston also dropped games to Cleveland and Baltimore during the regular season. And sure, while the Texans managed to two of the league’s top passers, they also collapsed in MetLife Stadium against the Zach Wilson-led Jets and Carolina amid a 2-15 season.
Houston is trading out matchups with the NFC South for the NFC North this year. Chicago and Minnesota look improved following free agency and the draft. Green Bay seems to have its franchise quarterback in Jordan Love after his breakout season. And remember that Detriot was a handful of plays away from making the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
The Texans also take on the AFC East instead of the North. That division features a three-headed monster atop it with Miami, New York and Buffalo. And given that Houston fell apart on the road against a rookie passer on a lackluster squad, dropping a game against New England isn’t far-fetched.
Yes, the Texans are still a playoff team despite upgrading their level of competition, but Orr isn’t wrong to think talks of a 13-win season feel extreme for the time being. The good news is someone will be incorrect at the end of the year.
Will it be Orr? The Texans start their quest to 11-plus wins once training camp begins on July 18.
