Following a year of relative calm in Libya, fighting erupted again this week in the capital Tripoli. The UN-backed government remains powerless in more than a third of the country, whose people have not seen an election in almost a decade.
While rival militias have vied for power since the overthrow of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, the current escalation indicates Libya's armed groups have consolidated their power.
The fresh spike in violence shows the government in Tripoli is still not in charge says Rhiannon Smith, an expert from the Libya Analysis thinktank.
"For the past few months, Libya has known a sort of stable instability. The political situation is still very uncertain. There are a lot of divisions and the armed groups are getting more and more powerful, but there haven't been major clashes."
Merging groups
The rivalry has become bigger and more significant with the merger of several key groups that now have increasing power and influence, Smith adds.
These are the 444 brigade and RADA, also known as the Special Deterrence Force.
Competition between the 444 and RADA is on the rise as RADA loses some of its influence, says Libya expert Tahani Elmogrbi.
"The 444 is more structured, military speaking, more organised, and it includes former soldiers from the Kadhafi regime. Also their head, Colonel Mahmoud Hamza, is more influential."
Gaining control of Tripoli's airport, which remains closed but is due to reopen, has been a flashpoint for the fighting.
Hamza was detained this month as he sought to travel from Tripoli’s Mitiga airport, which the RADA Special Deterrence Force claims to control, causing more clashes. He was freed on Thursday.
"It shows the issues around who controls security are still there, especially as the political situation is still up in the air," says Smith, adding that similar escalations in fighting could become more frequent.
Armed factions are progressively taking over Libya, influencing senior political appointments and the distribution of state resources, says Wolfram Lacher, a Libya specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs who co-edited a book on the past year in Libya.
Thrilled to get a hard copy of our just published Libya book. Grateful to editors @CollombierV & @W_Lacher for bringing together a team of Libyan & foreign researchers to shed light on under-researched aspects of the past 12 years based on extensive field work inside the country pic.twitter.com/r7MR6Tj65w
— Mary Fitzgerald (@MaryFitzger) July 5, 2023
Delayed political process
Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has led Libya's unity government since February 2021.
His challenge is to get long-delayed elections back on track – but for this to happen a series of laws need to be passed and a transitional government put into place.
This is incredibly hard to do and only creates more divisions, says Smith.
"The government of national unity controls Tripoli and some of the western regions. In theory it is the legitimate government, but it hardly controls its own areas of influence," she told RFI.
"All of the current incumbent actors have proven that all they care about is holding on to power."
Many observers say the international community has given up on Libya's transition.
Regional repercussions
Insecurity in the country has had a huge impact on the region from the North African coast to the Sahel.
A lack of border controls has opened new paths for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Mediterranean, and for armed groups.
Apart from the recent deal between the European Union and Tunisia, the EU seems to have reduced its involvement in trying to solve the crisis.
Elmogrbi blames division among European leaders for inaction on Libya, especially between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Libya has also slipped down the UN's list of priorities with the war in Ukraine taking precedence, and there has been little international reaction to this week's spike in violence.
The exception was African Union Commission chair Moussa Faki Mahamat, who published a statement to say he was following the security situation in Tripoli with "great concern".
