Speculation is mounting that Anthony Albanese will meet either the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, or the president, Xi Jinping, during the hectic November summit season, which kicks off in Cambodia this weekend.
Australia’s prime minister leaves on Friday for the East Asia and Australia-Asean summits in Phnom Penh before travelling to the G20 in Bali and completing his trip at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Bangkok towards the end of next week.
Officials have confirmed Albanese will have his first face-to-face meeting with the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, over the coming week, as well as the leaders of Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand.
The prime minister is also expected to catch up with the US president, Joe Biden, after the recent midterm elections.
But any significant escalation in Labor’s cautious rapprochement with Beijing will be a focal point of the trip. The diplomatic signals this week point to the likelihood of the first meeting between an Australian prime minister and the Chinese leadership since 2019, either in Phnom Penh or Bali.
While abundant irritants remain in the bilateral relationship, Albanese signalled this week he was open to meeting the premier or president. On Tuesday the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, had a conversation with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi – conventionally a precursor to dialogue at leader level.
The summits are taking place against a backdrop of escalating geostrategic competition and significant headwinds in the global economy. The recent Chinese Communist party conference, which consolidated and strengthened Xi Jinping’s power as leader, and rising tensions over Taiwan, hang over all the meetings.
As well as the persistent challenge of China’s regional assertiveness, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine will be front and centre at the G20.
An Indonesian government official said on Thursday Vladimir Putin would not attend the summit. Russia’s president will be represented by the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Albanese told parliament on Thursday Australia would use its participation at the G2o to highlight the “heroic struggle of the people of Ukraine”.
Albanese will arrive in Bali on Tuesday for the G20. Following the May election, Albanese quickly confirmed Australia would go to the summit, at a time when other leaders were threatening to avoid the event if Putin attended.
That gesture is said by officials to have cemented the prime minister’s personal rapport with the Indonesian president and G20 host, Joko Widodo. Widodo has invited Albanese to make a keynote speech at the B20 – the business program at the Bali summit – alongside the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi.
Officials say Albanese will use his contribution to highlight the risks in the economic outlook, and press the case for free and open trade, pushing back against the rise of protectionism and economic nationalism. That message will persist at Apec, which focuses on economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Albanese told parliament on Thursday the summits came at a “critical time” given rising inflation around the world, the global energy shock, rising strategic competition and the lived reality of the climate crisis.
He said world leaders needed to work together to combat economic and security challenges, including pursuing coordinated actions to address the supply-side shock, rising interest rates and energy prices. The prime minister said his message to his global counterparts was: “Australia is back as a partner and a leader. What happens in the rest of the world matters here at home as well,” Albanese said.
