Spectre of 2023 global recession looms

Vehicles queue to refuel at a Bangchak petrol station in Bangkok. The cabinet agreed on Tuesday to cut the excise tax on diesel by 5 baht per litre for two months until July 20 to tame inflation. (Photo: Sarot Meksophawannakul)

In economics, there is no such thing as a surprise. Major economic events like rising inflation, interest rate hikes, currency depreciation, even economic recession can be detected as far as a year ahead.

Take the recent spike in global inflation as an example. The rapid price rise of world commodities began a year before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24. The rise in a broad range of commodity prices reflected the recovery in demand after the outbreak of Covid-19 and deteriorating supply due to a lack of investment to expand and maintain supply chains during the Covid years.