As many Europeans clashed over protests related to the war in Gaza in recent days, Spaniards took the streets to contend with an entirely different issue. Hundreds of thousands came out in Madrid and other major cities to demonstrate against a deal struck between the Socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and Catalan separatists. That agreement will allow Sánchez finally to form a new coalition government this week, ending a political crisis that has afflicted the country since the general election on 23 July.
But it is a politically incendiary settlement that leaves Sánchez exposed. The far-right Vox party leader, Santiago Abascal, in over-the-top, unjustified rhetoric, accused him of “a coup”, and the conservative People’s party (PP)’s Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Madrid region, said the prime minister had “ushered in a dictatorship through the back door”.
Protests have been mostly peaceful, but some have turned violent: the most intense clashes, featuring fascist flags and Nazi salutes, took place outside the Socialist party headquarters in Madrid. In Cádiz, a local Socialist official was physically attacked and called a “traitor”.
While violent protests, rare enough in Spain, may fizzle out, it’s not clear that the wider political tension will subside as quickly as Sánchez suggests. After months of talks and a failed attempt by the centre-right PP and Vox to form a government, Sánchez has now secured enough votes to form a coalition government with the leftist Sumar.
But this pact comes at a high price, relying as it does on the support of smaller parties, mostly nationalists from Catalonia and the Basque Country. Junts, a diehard, rightwing, Catalan separatist party, despite performing abysmally in Catalonia in the general election, has been able to use its seven seats in parliament to become kingmaker.
In an extraordinary reversal of fortunes, Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who organised an illegal referendum in 2017 and subsequently fled to Brussels to avoid prosecution, has secured an amnesty for those involved in the independence movement who were either convicted in the past decade or are still facing trial. Additionally, his pact with Sanchez includes the launch of a formal dialogue on the status of Catalonia with an international mediator, and a highly contentious review of judicial decisions.
This last point, the details of which are still unclear, has sparked criticism from legal associations of all stripes. The concern is that it could pose a serious challenge to the rule of law and the separation of powers. The European Commission has already expressed reservations about the amnesty.
Sánchez is defending the agreement on pragmatic grounds, arguing that it will pacify Catalonia and normalise relations with separatist parties. But uncertainty lingers over what a Puigdemont return could mean for politics and social harmony in the region and beyond.
Despite outward calm, Catalonia remains divided on independence: 52% of citizens oppose it, and 42% support it, according to the latest data from the Catalan government statistics bureau. The national unity issue is also fuelling resentment in the rest of the country, as grievances mount over perceived regional inequality and discrimination against Spanish speakers within Catalonia.
Sánchez has alienated the approximately 40% of his own voters who oppose the amnesty, according to polls. As late as July, Sánchez himself ruled out an amnesty for pro-independence leaders before the election. Now he is defending it as a necessary step in defusing a separatist crisis that goes back at least a decade.
The appeasement strategy favoured by the Socialists has certainly proven more successful in the intervening years than the open confrontation chosen by Sánchez’s conservative rivals. Tension in the streets and even within families have subsided. Pro-independence flags and other symbols have mostly disappeared from Barcelona’s balconies. Polling confirms the slide in interest in the issue, with just 33% now supporting the idea of Catalonia becoming a fully independent state.
The more vocal, radical and often xenophobic minority (as Sánchez underlined in 2021) represented by Junts have lost influence. What is not yet clear is whether the agreement will force Junts into a more constructive role in the region, or whether it will again push Catalonia towards breaking point. The reality may well be something in between.
What is even more concerning in the short term is the damage that this deal and the resulting backlash does to public trust in institutions. That in turn could pave the way for the rise of populist, authoritarian leaders, as we have seen in other countries. After all, the far right in Spain gained its first breakthrough in the aftermath of the crisis in Catalonia in 2017.
Trust in institutions is already very low in Spain. According to Eurobarometer, a startling 90% in Spain distrust political parties, well above the EU average. There is widespread scepticism about parliament, the government and the media and less than half of the population trusts the courts.
According to the Reuters Institute’s Digital News Report, trust in news media stands at about 33%, one of the lowest scores among the 46 territories covered. In Spain, this slump in trust from 51% in 2017 is almost certainly linked to the Catalan crisis, which produced highly polarised media coverage.
If a lack of trust in public institutions poses a real threat to democracy, I fail to see how a cynical backroom deal perceived to be in the interests of the few – one of whom is Puigdemont, a very unpopular figure nationally – can helprestore it. Being seen to compromise the independence of the judiciary is also unhelpful at a time when there is no plan for broader institutional reform. At the same time, hyperbolic, self-serving rhetoric by rightwing politicians is only likely to further fuel public discontent.
Given the refusal of the two main parties to lend each other votes or put democracy ahead of partisan interests, neither Sánchez nor his leftwing allies had many options in seeking to form a government that excluded the far right. But once he is returned as prime minister by parliament, he should endeavour as a priority to address mounting public distrust and anger.
Sánchez’s premiership has been actually fairly good for Spain in many ways. The Spanish economy has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels and is doing better than expected. Inflation is among the lowest in Europe, with low energy prices. Sánchez has sustained a reliable foreign policy, aligned with the EU on big issues such as Ukraine, and has advanced the rights of women, trans people and workers. Along with Portugal’s prime minister, António Costa, who resigned last week, he has been the standard-bearer for progressive politics in Europe.
The new government could manage to achieve a shorter and better-paid working week, build more housing, accelerate transition to renewables to cut further emissions and energy prices and guarantee public care for children under three, as the coalition partners are promising. There is even a chance of a more peaceful, less grievance-ridden Catalonia, which could be beneficial for the country as a whole, if the stars align. That’s still a big if. Sánchez’s career has been built on a string of lucky bets. This time the stakes are higher than he thinks. For the sake of the country, it must be hopedhis luck does not run out.
María Ramírez is a journalist and deputy managing editor of elDiario.es, a news outlet in Spain
