We’re wrapping up our live coverage for the night. With 100% of the vote counted, Spain’s snap election has yielded a fragmented result that will yield weeks – if not months – of dealmaking attempts.
While the PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, won the most seats in the election, the party’s 136 seats will not be enough to topple the Socialists’ Pedro Sánchez. Even with Vox’s 33 seats, the two parties will fall short of the 176 seats needed for a majority in Spain’s parliament. The results stand in sharp contrast to the outcome predicted by pollsters for this snap general election.
Instead this snap election saw Sánchez again prove to be one of Europe’s most resilient politicians. Between the Socialists’ 122 seats – a slight increase over the 120 seats won last election – and Sumar’s 31 seats, the left bloc could manage to cobble together enough support in the coming months to take power. If not, Spain will again have to head to the polls.
You can read our full story of tonight’s election here:
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The Associated Press has crunched the numbers, reporting that the bloc that could likely support Sánchez’s return to power in Spain totals 172 seats. In contrast, the right bloc, led by the PP, sits at 170 seats.
As I mentioned earlier, the fragmented result means that the hardline Catalan separatist party Junts per Catalunya is now in the position of kingmaker.
“We won’t make Pedro Sánchez PM in exchange for nothing,” the party’s leader, Míriam Nogueras, said earlier tonight after it became clear that her party could play a decisive role in ushering in Spain’s new government.
While the PP won the most seats in the election, political analyst Verónica Fumanal described the win as a “Pyrrhic victory” as the party will likely not be able to form government. “I see a deadlock scenario in the parliament,” she told the Associated Press.
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Some interesting analysis from one of Spain’s best-known television personalities on the left, Jordi Evolé, on Twitter.
He points out that Spain has bucked the tide sweeping most of Europe in this election:
The extreme right, which is in its best moment across much of Europe, is losing votes and seats in Spain. Almost 20 … Today, more than ever, VIVA ESPAÑA.
The far-right party Vox has taken some of the biggest losses of the night, with its seat count dropping from 52 in the country’s parliament to 33.
In another tweet, Evolé also points out that despite obtaining their worst electoral result in years, Catalan separatists now hold the key to forming Spain’s next government.
A estas alturas de la noche, lo que podemos decir es que la EXTREMA DERECHA, en su mejor momento en casi toda Europa, en España pierde votos y escaños. Casi 20.
— Jordi Évole (@jordievole) July 23, 2023
Igual era eso la excepción ibérica.
Hoy, más que nunca, VIVA ESPAÑA.
The leader of the conservative People’s party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is addressing his supporters outside the PP headquarters in Madrid.
“Friends, we have obtained a result that just over a year and a half ago seemed impossible,” he says to loud cheers.
“As the candidate of the party that received the most votes, I believe it is my duty to lead the talks from the first minute and try to govern our country in accordance with the election results and the electoral victory”, he adds.
With 99.8% of the votes counted, the PP won tonight’s election with 136 seats. But the result is far from the outright majority needed to topple the incumbent Socialists, even with the far-right’s 33 seats.
Instead it hints at weeks – if not months – of negotiations as parties try to gather enough support to lead the country’s 350-seat parliament.
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Outside the Socialists headquarters, the mood appears to be jubilant. “There are far more of us, those who want to see Spain continue to advance,” said Pedro Sánchez to resounding cheers.
The backward-looking bloc who wanted to abolish the advances of the last four years has failed”, he added.
The Socialists did better tonight than polls had predicted, winning 122 seats. The result is a slight gain over the 120 seats it won in the November 2019 election.
🗳 #EleccionesGenerales | Suena la canción de 'Verano Azul' en la sede del PSOE en la calle Ferraz de Madridhttps://t.co/bkzdw4nEof pic.twitter.com/gwiApWCTRj
— Cadena SER (@La_SER) July 23, 2023
Spanish media are highlighting that the potential kingmaker of the election is not the far-right Vox – but rather the Catalan separatist party Junts per Catalunya.
With 99% of the votes counted, Junts has 7 seats. If the Socialists are able to strike a deal with the party, perhaps convincing them to abstain, Pedro Sánchez could potentially pave a return to power.
The negotiations, however, would likely take weeks or months. And as Juanlu Sánchez of Eldiario.es points out in this tweet, if Junts decides to vote against both the left and the right bloc, Spain will be heading towards new elections.
Si Junts se abstiene, Pedro Sánchez puede ser presidente del Gobierno.
— Juanlu Sánchez (@juanlusanchez) July 23, 2023
Pero si Junts vota que no a la izquierda y luego también vota que no a la derecha, nadie tendrá más síes que noes. Y a elecciones otra vez.
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My colleague Sam Jones has put together this look at the Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, and his risky gamble in calling tonight’s snap general election.
Polarisation, discord and fury have been the defining features of Spain’s volatile and rapidly changing politics over the past few years,” Sam writes.
He adds: Now that Spain has gone to the polls for the fifth time in eight years, results suggest an electorate finely divided, and Sánchez will soon learn whether his latest bet was the right one.”
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Summary
With 100% of the votes counted, the PP has won the election with 136 seats. But the result is far from an outright majority and hints at weeks – if not months – of political gridlock and negotiations as parties try to hammer out whether Spain’s next government will tack to the right or left.
The Socialists did better than polls had predicted, winning 122 seats. The result is a slight gain over the 120 seats it won in the November 2019 election.
The new leftwing movement, Sumar, won 31 seats.
The far-right party Vox has taken some of the biggest losses of the night, with its seat count dropping from 52 in the country’s parliament to 33.
While polls had suggested that Vox’s seat count would drop, they also suggested that this drop would be compensated by the party’s role as a kingmaker following the election.
A PP-Vox coalition would have 169 seats – meaning it would need to secure a handful of votes from other parties to secure the 176 seats needed for a majority in the 350-seat parliament. It is a tall order, given that most regional parties have expressed hesitation over striking deals that could ease Vox’s path to power.
The Socialists and Sumar would have 153 seats together, meaning they could potentially try to strike deals with smaller regional parties to govern. But doing so would require fraught negotiations, meaning Spain risks heading into new elections.
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Sam Jones, The Guardian’s Madrid correspondent, has filed his take on the election results:
The early results suggested the political hue of the next government is far from a foregone conclusion, with the left and right blocs running almost neck and neck in their race to get as close to 176 seats as possible. Weeks of negotiations and horse-trading are likely to follow Sunday’s vote.”
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People's party widens lead with 90% of votes counted
With 90% of the vote counted, the PP has now firmly pulled into the lead with 136 seats.
The Socialists have 122 seats, while the leftwing movement, Sumar, is at 31 seats.
The far-right party Vox has 33 seats.
The results so far suggest that the PP and Vox together would have 169 seats – meaning they would need to secure a handful of votes from other parties to secure a majority in the 350-seat parliament. It is a tall order, given that most regional parties have expressed hesitation over deals that would ease Vox’s path to power.
The Socialists and Sumar would have 153 seats together, meaning they could potentially try to strike deals with smaller regional parties in order to govern. But doing so would require weeks – if not months – of fraught negotiations, meaning Spain risks heading into new elections.
With 10% or so of votes left to count, the results could still see an increase or decrease by a handful of seats.
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Writer Michael Reid, author of a recently published book on Spain, points out that so far the results hint at how the country’s two traditional parties, the Socialists and the PP, are bouncing back after an era of deep fragmentation in Spanish politics:
Whoever wins the election in Spain, the resilience of the two traditional parties (PSOE and PP) is striking. Between them they will win around 64% of the vote, down from 84% in 2008 but up from just 49% in November 2019.
— Michael Reid (@michaelreid52) July 23, 2023
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Key event
People’s party pulls ahead of the Socialists with three-quarters of the vote counted
Just over 75% of the votes have been counted and live results published by the Spanish government continue to show a narrow gap between the Socialists and the PP.
The PP – which polls had suggested would win the election by a substantial margin – has 132 seats. The Socialists trail slightly behind at 126.
The far-right Vox party has 33 seats while the leftwing movement Sumar has 30.
The preliminary count suggests that PP and Vox together would have 165 seats – just shy of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
With a quarter of the vote left to count, the results could still increase or decrease by a handful of seats.
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Spanish radio station Cadena SER has published video from the PP headquarters in Madrid.
It shows people milling outside as results roll in. After weeks of polls suggesting the PP would win the election by a significant margin, the mood of supporters appears to be more cautious than jubilant:
🗳 #EleccionesGenerales2023 | Ambiente frío dentro y fuera de la sede de Génova, pero el PP asegura que aún falta mucho escrutinio y pone énfasis en que faltan las grandes ciudades
— Cadena SER (@La_SER) July 23, 2023
Informa @marielarubiohttps://t.co/bkzdw4nEof pic.twitter.com/FlS7RHzhQp
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Narrow gap between Socialists and PP with just over half the votes counted
We now have slightly more than 55% of the votes counted and live results published by the Spanish government show a very narrow gap between the Socialists and the PP.
The PP – widely tipped to win the most seats in this snap election – have 130. The Socialists are closely behind them with 129.
The far-right Vox party has 33 seats while leftwing movement Sumar has 30.
This suggests that the PP-Vox together would have 163 seats – a result that falls short of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
These are still early results, however, so they could change as more votes are counted.
In past elections the variation over the course of the count has not tended to be very large, but it could increase or decrease by a handful of seats, leading to changes in the balance of power.
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Socialists strengthen with third of votes counted
With slightly more than 33% of votes counted, live results published by the Spanish government suggests that Socialists and the PP are tied at 131 seats.
The far-right Vox party has 32 seats while leftwing movement Sumar has 28.
This suggests that the PP-Vox together would have 163 seats, while the Socialists and Sumar would have 159. At least 176 seats are needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament.
These are preliminary results, however, so they could change significantly in the coming hours.
In past elections the variation over the course of the count has not tended to be very large, but it could increase or decrease by a handful of seats and alter the balance of power.
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As we wait for the results of Spain’s snap election, a reminder of the potential outcomes:
Polls suggest the most likely outcome is that the PP and Vox could together earn the 176 seats needed to govern the country’s 350-seat parliament.
If so, the result would pave the way for a rightward shift in Spain following the Socialists’ push to advance transgender rights, access to abortion and menstrual leave.
If PP and Vox fall short of this threshold, the Socialists could seek to forge an alliance with Sumar, a grouping of 15 leftist parties, and rely on the votes of a handful of smaller regional parties to govern.
If the vote yields a fragmented result that makes it impossible for the parties to strike deals, it could mean fresh elections for Spain in 2024.
No matter the outcome, the lack of an outright majority for any one party would mean that Spanish politicians are facing weeks – if not months – of complex negotiations.
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Summary
Polls have just closed in the country’s snap general election.
Snapshots of voting intention taken during the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
Given that the results of the election are likely to come down to a dozen or so seats, it probably won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
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Polls are now closed in Spain. As the results of the hard-fought snap general election begin trickling in, it’s worth highlighting what is at stake, as argued by the former UK prime minister, Gordon Brown, in this piece:
If the bloc of rightist parties ends up ahead of Sánchez, the near-50-year political taboo against neofascist parties in power will be broken. Vox will have moved from a gang of backstreet demagogues to the Spanish cabinet room, creating a political earthquake that will be felt right across the continent in the year of Spain’s presidency of the European Union,” he writes.
With voter surveys suggesting that there is no clear majority for any one party in Spain’s snap election, tonight’s poll has been waged on potential pacts as much as policy.
Speaking to the Associated Press, voter Alejandro Bleda, 45, alluded to the PP’s willingness to work with the far-right Vox party to explain how he voted.
“Given the polarisation in this country, it’s to vote either for 50 years of backwardness or for progress,” he said.
In contrast Carmen Acero, 62, said she was voting for the PP and accused Sánchez of being an “assassin” due to his willingness to rely on the small Basque regional party Bildu, which includes some former members of the now-defunct armed separatist group, ETA.
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In recent days, the extent of what the far-right could do as a junior partner in a coalition with the PP has become a talking point.
Earlier this month I travelled to Castile and León, where the far-right has controlled a handful of ministries for the past 15 months as part of a PP-led government, to ask that very question.
Rights groups said the steady drip of rollbacks, rhetoric and reversals from the region’s institutions had derailed the push for progress while also leaving some feeling more vulnerable.
For the first time in a very long time, we felt that Pride was not about demanding more rights,” said Virginia Hernández Gómez of LGBTQ+ rights group Fundación Triángulo. “Instead, it was about demanding that the rights we have not be taken away.”
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Spain’s snap election – framed by politicians as a battle between the left and right – has taken on a wider significance as a barometer of Europeans’ shifting attitude towards the far-right.
Polls suggest that the ultraconservative Vox party could emerge as kingmaker tonight, meaning its aggressive stance against feminists, LGBT+ rights and migrants could gain a foothold in Spain’s central government.
The vote comes weeks after Spain took over the rotating presidency of the European Union. A coalition that includes the far-right would be a fresh – and very symbolic – blow to the European left.
My colleague Jon Henley put together this look at how the far-right is increasingly shaping politics across Europe.
After every crisis, we have told ourselves that the populists and far-right are waning in Europe, and the fact is they have been rising more or less steadily, with a few interruptions, since the 1980s,” Catherine Fieschi, director of policy at Open Society Foundations Europe and an expert on populism, authoritarianism and the far-right told Jon. “They are really now a part of the landscape.”
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Summary
Polls have just closed across mainland Spain in the country’s snap general election. Polls on the Canary Islands will remain open for one more hour as the archipelago falls in a different time zone.
Snapshots of voting intention taking during the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
Given that the results of the election are likely to come down to a dozen or so seats, it probably won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
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Here is more from Reuters on the voter surveys:
Spain’s conservative opposition People’s Party (PP) was seen ahead in Sunday’s snap election, but short of an outright parliamentary majority, which it could however achieve in a potential tie-up with far-right Vox, two voter surveys showed.
A survey by GAD3 for media group Mediaset, published shortly after mainland voting ended at 8pm and based on 10,000 voter intentions collated over the course of the election campaign through Saturday, showed the PP would win 150 seats, and Vox 31.
The leftist coalition, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists, would get a combined 149 seats in the 350-seat lower chamber, GAD3 said.
Another survey, of 17,000 people by Sigma Dos pollster for the state broadcaster RTVE also showed no single party close to winning a parliamentary majority, and the combined right achieving it only at the top of the ranges provided.”
Updated
Polls closed
Polls in Spain’s snap general election have just closed in mainland Spain. Polls on the Canary Islands will remain open for one more hour due to the archipelago falling in a different time zone.
Snapshots of voting intention taking during the course of the campaign suggest that there is no clear majority for any one party, though the PP and Vox could have enough for a majority, according to Reuters.
Given that the results of the election will likely come down to a dozen or so seats, the these voter surveys should be viewed cautiously. It likely won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have a more concrete idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
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Can leftwing movement fend off far-right?
Standing firmly in the Socialists’ corner is the new Sumar movement – a platform of some 15 leftist and green parties – that is hoping to act as a bulwark against the far-right.
Led by Yolanda Díaz, the country’s 52-year-old minister of labour and the Spanish politician with the highest approval rating, Sumar has sought to appeal to the widest possible range of left-of-centre voters. Their promises include the eye-catching “universal inheritance,” which would give all young Spaniards €20,000 (£17,000) in a bid to boost social mobility.
My colleague Sam Jones has more on Sumar and Díaz here, including this fascinating quote:
When it comes to -isms, I hate putting labels on things,” Díaz said. “You’ll never find me in all that. What I am is a progressive woman who is the daughter of an anti-Franco activist who was a member of the Spanish Communist party.”
The piece notes:
Her task is not easy. Although Spain’s economy is in decent shape – the inflation rate fell to 1.9% in June – the cost of living crisis continues to bite and political disenchantment, especially on the left, is rife.”
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Across Spain people have been pouring into polling stations to vote, despite the soaring summer temperatures.
In the northern Spanish town of Saldaña, officials took a break from hosting the town’s traditional Roman market to cast their votes:
Spanish mayor votes dressed as a Roman emperor in the Northern town of Saldaña, which hosts a Roman market today pic.twitter.com/zZ5QmgqJNq
— Eduardo Suárez (@eduardosuarez) July 23, 2023
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With about 30 minutes left until the majority of polls close in Spain, it’s probably worth taking a look at how Spain – once widely considered to be relatively immune to far-right politics – could end up with Vox as part of its central government.
Analysts link the fortunes of the far-right Vox party, founded almost a decade ago by disenchanted PP members, to the failed push for Catalan independence some six years ago.
As Spain grappled with its worst political and territorial crisis in decades, it “awakened a long-dormant strain of nationalism,” my colleague Sam Jones writes in this piece exploring the rise of Vox.
Add to that the social, economic and demographic factors in play in Spain and many other European countries – ageing populations, fears about immigration, and digital and equality revolutions that have left many people feeling left behind – and the conditions for Vox were ripe.”
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'The Rock and the hard right'
Residents of Gibraltar will be among those watching tonight’s election result closely, as the outcome could have far-reaching impact on their lives.
The Brexit withdrawal agreement, announced on Christmas Eve 2020, did not cover Gibraltar. Instead the tiny territory’s post-Brexit fate has been the subject of more than a dozen rounds of talks between the EU and the UK.
The talks are ongoing. But if tonight’s government ends up being a coalition between the PP and Vox, as polls suggest, it could complicate efforts to end Gibraltar’s post-Brexit limbo.
In the lead-up to regional and municipal elections in May, the Vox leader, Santiago Abascal, argued that any deal with the UK that did not recognise Spanish sovereignty over the British territory would be “an act of betrayal against Spain”.
I delved into what is at risk for the Rock this weekend in a piece for the Observer:
I would be very concerned that an eventual rightwing government would seek to block the treaty over ideological interests that are weighed down by – let’s say it clearly – vestiges of Francoism,” Jesús Verdú Baeza, a law professor at the University of Cádiz told me.
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The far-right party Vox is not expected to come in first or second place in this election. Polls suggest it is even poised to lose some of the 52 seats it currently holds in Spain’s parliament.
Even so, the party – which has long railed against feminism, LGBT+ rights and Muslim immigration – has dominated the conversation during this election.
Led by 47-year-old Santiago Abascal, the party could emerge as kingmaker in tonight’s election, if polls are to be believed. If so, it will breathe new life into the party’s promises to eradicate Spanish laws on abortion and euthanasia, abolish regional autonomy and parliaments as well as set up a naval blockade to prevent irregular migrants from arriving at the country’s shores.
The third generation of politicians in his family, Abascal joined the PP at the age of 18. In 2013, disenchanted with the party’s handling of corruption and separatism, he founded Vox with several other former PP members.
The party has gone on to forge close ties with the far-right across Europe; Abascal has turned up at summits with France’s Marine Le Pen, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who earlier this month made a videolink appearance at a Vox rally in Valencia.
Pointing to governments in Italy, Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Czech Republic, Meloni told the rally that the time had come for “patriots” to take power.
For all of us it is crucial that on 23 July a conservative patriotic alternative is established, in which Vox plays a leading and decisive role in the formation of the new national government,” she added.
The man expected to win tonight
When people seek to describe Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the PP and the man tipped to win tonight’s election, the word boring often comes up.
“The boring guy who wins every election by a landslide,” is how an Associated Press headline recently described him, while a Reuters profile was swift to note his “reputation for dullness”.
It’s an image that Feijóo has sought to nurture since taking the reins of the PP some 16 months ago. “I know this speech might sound boring or old-fashioned but I’m sorry, I believe politics isn’t a fashion or reality show,” he told a rally last year in the lead up to regional elections in Andalusia.
Relatively unknown outside of Spain, Feijóo made the jump into politics at the age of 41 after a successful career as a high-ranking civil servant. He was elected to lead the northwestern region of Galicia in 2009, racking up four absolute majorities in the regional parliament.
His push to paint himself as a moderate, however, stands in contrast to his party’s willingness to forge municipal and regional governments with the far-right.
My colleague Sam Jones has this piece with more background on Feijóo:
Much has been made of his calm, understated demeanour – especially in contrast to the slick, telegenic and sometimes unpredictable charms of Sánchez,” writes Sam.
He adds: “Despite his low-key image, Feijóo has not always managed to avoid scandal.The publication 10 years ago of photographs showing him on holiday in the mid-1990s with a friend who was later convicted of drug trafficking led to calls for him to step down as Galicia’s president.
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Despite efforts by politicians to paint Spain’s snap election as a stark choice between the left and right blocs, it appears it wasn’t enough to convince some voters.
At 6pm local time, turnout for the snap general election stood at 53%, down from 56.85% recorded at the same time in the previous November 2019 election, according to data from the country’s interior ministry.
Some of this can be blamed on the extreme heat gripping parts of the country, others pointed to the fact that the election comes at a time when many in Spain are on vacation.
One man found a creative way to express his frustration at being called to vote during his vacation:
Un hombre va a votar así en protesta por la convocatoria de elecciones en plenas vacaciones. pic.twitter.com/NbQGsagrzt
— Wall Street Wolverine (@wallstwolverine) July 23, 2023
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Some nuts and bolts about tonight’s vote.
Polls will close at 8pm local time (7pm UK time) We expect exit polls shortly after that.
Given that the results of the election will likely come down to a dozen or so seats, the exit polls should be viewed cautiously. It likely won’t be until around midnight local time (11pm UK) when we have an idea of what lies ahead for Spain.
There are a few potential outcomes, all of which suggest that weeks or months of complex negotiations lay ahead for Spain. The most likely is that the PP and Vox could together earn the 176 seats needed to govern the country’s 350-seat parliament.
If so, the result would pave the way for a shift to the hard right following the Socialists’ push to advance transgender rights, access to abortion and menstrual leave.
If PP and Vox fall short of this threshold, the Socialists could forge an alliance with Sumar, a grouping of 15 leftist parties, as well as a handful of smaller regional parties in order to govern.
And if the vote yields a fragmented result that makes it impossible for the parties to strike deals, it could mean fresh elections for Spain in 2024.
Will Pedro Sánchez’s gamble pay off?
This election – called by Spain’s Socialist prime minister hours after his party suffered a drubbing in May’s regional and municipal elections – came as a surprise to most in the country.
It was a high stakes gamble, even for a politician known for embracing risk. Pedro Sánchez, 51, has proven himself to be among Europe’s most resilient politicians; riding a grassroots insurgency to return to power after he was ousted as leader of his party and going on to become the first politician in Spain to topple a sitting government using a no-confidence motion.
The election might be his riskiest bet to-date, with Sánchez hoping that the rash of deals forged in recent weeks between the PP and Vox in dozens of municipalities and a handful of regions would help mobilise leftwing voters.
It remains to be seen whether it will be enough. Sánchez’s reliance on support from separatists to govern and swing to the left as his party sought common ground with coalition partner Podemos have proven deeply unpopular with many in Spain, while his opponents have sought to portray him as a man willing to cling to power at any cost.
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It’s election day in Spain
Good evening and buenas tardes to those following the results of Spain’s snap general election. I’m Ashifa Kassam in Madrid and I – along with Guardian colleague Sam Jones – will be bringing you all the latest from Spain’s hard-fought general election.
The snap election, called two months ago by Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, is being closely watched across Europe and much of the world; polls suggest that it could yield the far-right’s first foray into central government since the death of dictator Francisco Franco.
The opposition conservative People’s party (PP) is expected to win the election, but polls suggest it will fall short of the 176 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 350-seat parliament. If so, the party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will likely need to strike a deal with the far-right Vox party in order to govern the eurozone’s fourth largest economy.
The final outcome of tonight’s election is anyone’s guess. The last week of campaigning saw the PP frontrunner, Núñez Feijóo, called out over untrue claims on pensions, criticised for remarks seen as sexist and stumble as he sought to explain his ties to a man convicted of drug trafficking.
As a result, the Socialists began pointing to a resurgence of the left. This morning Sánchez was among the first candidates to cast his ballot, telling reporters that the election was giving him “good vibes”.
Will the country’s 37 million or so eligible voters prove him right? Stay tuned.
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