The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black on Sunday said investors are breaking the “number one rule in investing” by treating Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) as a great stock simply because it is a great business.
‘Don’t Conflate A Great Business With A Great Stock’
Black, in a post on X, said his criticism was not directed at SpaceX CEO Elon Musk or its long-term prospects, adding that the company may be a “great, uniquely positioned business” but that investors should distinguish between the quality of a business and the price they pay for its shares.
He said SpaceX’s roughly $1.7 trillion market capitalization “shouldn’t mathematically” command a forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of about 40 times, calling it a valuation with no historical precedent among trillion-dollar companies.
I asked Grok if there has ever been a company in the history of the stock market like $SPCX with more than $1 trillion market cap that traded for over 40x forward EV/Rev?
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 19, 2026
Grok’s response: No, there has never been a company with a sustained >$1 trillion market cap trading at…
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Black Compares SpaceX With Nvidia, Tesla And Other Mega-Caps
After asking Grok whether any company with a market capitalization above $1 trillion had ever sustained a forward EV-to-revenue multiple above 40 times, Black shared the chatbot’s response that none had, including the world’s second most valuable company, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA).
According to the response, NVIDIA’s trailing EV-to-revenue multiple briefly approached 45 times.
Still, its forward multiple generally remained between 10 and 25 times as revenue growth accelerated.
At the same time, companies including Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) have historically traded at significantly lower forward revenue multiples.
Bulls And Bears Remain Divided on SpaceX
Black has consistently maintained that SpaceX’s valuation leaves little room for upside, saying last week that the IPO should not have been priced at $135 and that he would not get excited about the stock until it trades below $100.
The bearish view contrasts sharply with Wall Street, where Raymond James Financial Inc. (NYSE:RJF) recently set an $800 price target and other major brokerages continue to rate the stock a buy despite its roughly 45% decline from its peak.
Investors are now looking ahead to SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, expected around August 17 or earlier, followed by the expiration of the IPO lockup period, both of which are expected to be the next major catalysts for the stock.
Shares have fallen about 45% from their post-IPO high of $225.64 reached just days after the company’s historic public debut last month.
Price Action: SPCX closed 5.43% lower on Friday at $123.99 and edged marginally higher at 0.12% in extended trading.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate SPCX has a negative price trend across the short, medium and long term.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Thrive Studios ID via Shutterstock
