South Australia's grain harvest is predicted to exceed expectations despite the state experiencing its driest winter since 2019.
Fifth-generation farmer Grant Anderson said while there was very low rainfall in July, August had been "magnificent," and the new season is already lifting spirits.
"Now we've just had another 20 millimetres overnight at the start of September, so that's a perfect start for the spring for us," Mr Anderson said from his property at Halbury in the state's mid-north.
The Australian Bureau for Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has predicted this year's national grain harvest to yield more than 55 million tonnes — the fourth largest on record.
"Timely and sufficient rainfall in late winter greatly benefited crop development in many regions and lifted average yield potentials across all states," the bureau stated in its latest report.
"Cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria have benefited more consistently from these winter developments than those in New South Wales and Queensland."
According to ABARES, growing conditions have improved on the Yorke Peninsula and in the south-eastern regions of South Australia following a dry start and conditions remain "favourable" on the Eyre Peninsula.
However, the state's upper and mid-north regions continue to experience drier conditions than the rest of the state.
Third La Niña predictions could rain on farmers parade
While the heavy rainfall is good for now, experts are warning growers to be cautious with another La Niña weather system forecast to hit the country from spring into the new year.
Climate Applications Scientist at the South Australian Research and Development Institute Peter Hayman said farmers are not in the clear just yet.
"There's obviously a concern that in the coming month or so, the worry about a severe frost can do enormous damage," he said.
Frost damages plants when moisture gets into the plant's cells, eventually breaking cell walls when it freezes.
Plants die when they can no longer carry any nutrients.
Frost is common in parts of Australia where warm and sunny days are often followed by cold and icy nights.
The price of a good harvest
The demand of grain has increased globally as the war in Ukraine has left many countries looking to Australian soil for their supply.
In fact, 80 per cent of South Australian grain is exported to overseas markets, and the current high demand means international prices are looking strong.
But Dr Hayman said the weather could dampen down profits.
"It's safe to say it's still a worrying time given the expense of the crops and the potential value of the crops with these very high prices," he said.
"Our input costs have been phenomenal this year… everything's at least doubled in price input-cost wise," Mr Anderson said.
As well as price hikes and frost, Dr Hayman said farmers also have other weather extremes to consider, such as the likelihood of heatwaves as the warmer seasons approach.
"The worry of some of these risks that happen is that [farmers are] caught with the high input costs and they're not able to realise the good grain prices," he said.
With ABARES also predicting the value of Australia's food and fibre exports to exceed $70 billion, Mr. Anderson is hoping his harvest produces a good return.
He said despite the obstacles the industry is up against, things are going according to plan.
"We might hopefully produce a lot of tonnes this year if it keeps raining and does the right thing for us so… we are on track for hopefully a pretty good year," Mr Anderson said.
