South Africa v Wales exact scoreline predicted
'A three-point game' - Matthew Southcombe prediction
Wales are clear underdogs heading into the first Test in Pretoria but there is a genuine concern among locals that South Africa could be caught cold. They have not played together as a unit for some time and the selection of Elton Jantjies at fly-half adds to the sense of unknown.
There are also suggestions that the Springboks could try some new styles in preparation for the Rugby Championship and beyond. With all that in the mix, all it takes the bounce of the ball to go Wales' way and suddenly it's interesting.
On paper, though, it's an ominous task. I like Wayne Pivac's thinking with the props, pairing the best scrummaging loose-head with the weaker scrummaging tight-head to start and vice-versa on the bench.
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The absence of Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis' position among the replacements is not necessarily ideal but it is probably the best way for Wales to combat both of South Africa's world class front rows.
Out wide, on paper there is relative parity but so much will depend on how the front five hold up. Wales have to be accurate to limit the number of scrums and keep the ball on the field to restrict the lineouts. If Wales' penalty count balloons, they'll give South Africa easy access and be defending driving mauls all day.
I want to be positive and I do think it'll be closer than many expect but it is difficult to predict a Welsh win.
South Africa 27 - 24 Wales
'Too much Bok power' - Simon Thomas prediction
Wales’ last encounter with South Africa offers some hope, but also raises real concerns. Back in November, Wayne Pivac’s team pushed the Springboks all the way at the Principality Stadium, leading 12-9 a half-time before eventually going down 23-18. They fronted up and got in the faces of the world champions.
But it was the reason they ultimately lost which sounds the alarm bells looking ahead to Saturday’s first Test in Pretoria. They were pummelled in the scrum in Cardiff and it cost them in the end. That, once again, will be a pivotal area, with the ‘Boks boasting arguably the two best front rows in the world, while Wales are without Lions loosehead Wyn Jones, with long-standing tighthead Tomas Francis on the bench after back trouble.
So it could be a long day at the coal face and a dominant set-piece platform will allow the hosts to get on the front foot and really impose themselves physically with their mighty carrying. With the series opener being played at altitude, Wales may well look to adopt a somewhat conservative approach, with a controlled, territorial kicking game, backed up by resolute defence and contesting at the breakdown. But you just fear the Boks will have too much power all round.
South Africa 32 - 12 Wales
'Springboks to get stronger' - Ben James prediction
In a parallel universe, it would be Warren Gatland's Lions heading to South Africa this summer, backed by swathes of travelling fans. Of course, the decision made was for the tour to go ahead in the face of the South Africa's third Covid wave - resulting in a series played behind closed doors.
So it's Wayne Pivac's Wales who enter the lions' den with baying fans back in tow. There are some markers from last year's tour which hint at how things will go. First things first is Wales' game plan.
The selection of Dan Lydiate at six suggests Wales will look to do what the Lions did early on in the series, who went for the similarly physical Courtney Lawes as their blindside. The mandate is clear.
Stand up to their explosive carrying, don't lose the game at the scrum and lineout and see if you can get on top in the kicking game. Only then might the Springboks lose control.
Just like the Lions series last year, it seems likely that the first Test is the best chance of victory. While not as short of preparation as last year, Pretoria represents the best chance to catch the world champions at a temperature that could even be described loosely as cold.
The Springboks will only grow stronger as this tour goes on, although Wales, despite being expected to wilt amid the physical onslaught, have tended to improve week by week during recent trips to South Africa.
Regardless of whether this weekend will provide Wales' best performance or not, it's hard to say with any conviction that a first Welsh victory in South Africa is in the works.
South Africa 29-9 Wales
'Lewis needs game of his life' - Mark Orders prediction
An optimist might reason that with the likes of Josh Navidi, Alun Wyn Jones, Tomas Francis, Gareth Anscombe and Dewi Lake among the replacements, Wales might just be able to make a fight of it in the first Test against South Africa in Pretoria.
But then he or she might look at South Africa’s reserves this weekend and see the coaches have opted to name Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Elrigh Louw, Kwagga Smith and Willie le Roux among them.
There is no guarantee at all that Wales will win the bench battle at Loftus Versfeld, notwithstanding the quality of those they will be bringing on.
The challenge for Pivac’s starters is to at least keep the Springboks in check, but it’s easier said than done. At 6ft 9in, Lood de Jager is one of the best lineout forwards in the world, safe on his own ball and a threat on opposition possession, while the 6ft 8in and 19st 3lb Etzebeth provides a muscular and battle-hardened presence alongside him. Then there’s the 6ft 5in Franco Mostert in the back row to add to the hosts’ lineout armoury.
Might there be respite in the scrum for the tourists?
Don’t bank on it.
Dillon Lewis is going to need to have a game of his life to cope with the power of Ox Nche, while Gareth Thomas, who is more renowned for his set-piece work than Lewis, will have to play well to handle the 20st 6lb Frans Malherbe.
Somehow Wales need to overcome the odds and set in place a set-piece platform because without one it’s hard to see them being in the game. They do have some potent backs, but it would be a surprise if they overdid the running. More likely is that they do what it takes to mess the Springboks about and try to make it hard for them in the hope that the hosts will become frustrated and errors creep into their game.
Even then, it’s difficult to see anything other than a home win.
South Africa 35-15 Wales
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