What a wild, wacky format this is, giving some teams much easier knockout routes than others.
I just set up Bracketology with the most plausible scenarios and found this:
USA: Bosnia, then Egypt or Senegal. They could certainly lose one of those games, but compare that with …
France: Sweden, then almost certainly Germany.
Argentina: Uruguay, then likely Belgium.
The full round of 16 if all the favorites win:
Germany-France
Canada-Netherlands
Ghana-Spain
USA-Egypt
Brazil-Côte d’Ivoire
Switzerland-Colombia
Argentina-Belgium
And a massive game …
England-Mexico
Yikes.
So with permutations running through my head, I’ll sign off until the USA kick off in 20-something hours. Thanks as always for following along with us here.
South African manager Hugo Broos: “It’s very difficult to explain how I feel. It’s a fantastic experience. Technically I think we were very good. It was difficult for South Korea to find space. It was 90 minutes of heart beating and hoping that the game would be as soon as possible finished.”
Next up for South Africa: Canada, in Los Angeles.
Both teams are in the knockout rounds for the first time. That also means one team will reach the Round of 16 for the first time.
Peter Oh again: That was Seoul-crushing.
South Korea’s anxious wait …
This perennially solid team wound up with 3 points and a goal difference of -1.
They’ll need for those numbers to be better than four third-place teams. They’ve already got one – Scotland was third in Group C with 3 points and a -3 GD.
Other results that could help South Korea:
D: Australia over Paraguay or a Paraguay win by 2 or more goals
E: Ecuador and Curacao fail to beat Germany and Côte d’Ivoire.
F: Japan over Sweden by 2 or more goals
G: Egypt over Iran
H: Spain over Uruguay
I: Senegal fail to beat Iraq by at least 2 goals
J: Austria over Algeria or an Algeria win by 2 or more goals
K: DR Congo fail to beat Uzbekistan
L: Ghana over Croatia and Panama don’t rout England
Final Group A standings
9 pts. Mexico
4 pts. South Africa
3 pts. South Korea
1 pt. Czechia
Final: South Africa 1-0 South Korea
What a stunner. On paper, you wouldn’t say this is anything close to the best team South Africa have sent to the World Cup, but it’s the first team to get through to knockout play. Yeah, sure, it’s 32 instead of 16, but they still finished second in their group, ahead of fancied South Korea and Czechia sides.
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90 min +6 Last chance time. South Korea blast it forward but almost get beat on the counterattack.
Now this will be the last chance …
90 min +5 Good cross for Cho, but again a South African defender gets there in the nick of time.
90 min +4 Long clearance for South Korea, but South Africa reclaim – only to play a rash pass forward. But South Korea give it back.
90 min +2 South Africa want a foul on Cho as he contests a header, but no, there’s nothing there. Corner kick, and it looks like South Korea might get it on frame until a late effort.
Then a CHANCE! The ubiquitous Castrop chips a ball in from an angle, and Williams has to hang on while an onrushing forward leaps past him.
90 min As usual, six minutes of stoppage time.
89 min South Korea are finally getting creative. A nifty dummy helps them get the ball down the left for a cross that forces a tough defensive header.
88 min Son has the ball and can shoot! It’s just not a good idea because there are a bunch of defenders in front of him!
Reminder: South Africa have never made a World Cup knockout stage. They’re a few minutes away from doing it.
87 min Ball over the top for Cho, but he’s stuck between two defenders. Still, they get a throw-in deep in the South African half.
86 min The peripatetic Castrop works on the left and earns a corner. Taken quickly, played over the 6-yard box and headed back to the center, but then cleared. They’ve looked somewhat dangerous on set pieces.
85 min Williams powerfully leaps off his line and punches clear. Two players drop to the grass, but they get back up.
84 min South Korea work down the right, and this cross isn’t that bad. It’s headed out for a corner.
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83 min South Korea go over the top to Castrop, who crosses … behind both South Korean forwards in the box. This team aren’t playing like a team we’ll miss in the round of 32.
Mary Waltz writes: “South Korea seems to have no imagination, they seem so unlikely to score. South Africa seems more likely to score another on the counter.”
I’d love to see a stat on the accuracy of their crosses. It has to be 20% at most.
80 min Mofokeng barely beats the count to get off the field as he’s substituted out. Jaylen Adams is the new man in. That’s three South African subs, but did they use all their windows?
79 min South Africa get the free kick and again try to run everything parallel to South Korea’s high defensive line. South Africa clearly expected South Korea to defend this way, but nothing they’ve tried has succeeded.
78 min Lee Kang-in plays one-man keepaway from the South African defense, finally passes, gets it back, then tries to thread a pass to a couple of forwards. But South Korea just aren’t finding those spaces.
Yellow card to Cho for a very high boot.
76 min Mudau with the clothesline tackle on Son, curiously not worthy of the referee’s cards. Didn’t he have a reputation for flashing plastic?
74 min Final sub for South Korea. Cho Gue-sung replaces Oh Hyeon-gyu.
For South Africa, Rayners replaces the goal-scorer Maseko. who claps toward the crowd even though there’s no notable ovation. Did anyone realize that he scored?
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72 min South African fans are dancing. It’s very festive. But the majority of the crowd was leaning toward … well, Mexico first, but South Korea second. They seem less interested.
Yellow card to Modiba for plowing into Castrop, who has been lively here in his first game of his World Cup debut.
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69 min: Drink!
Mark Maniak writes: “Enjoying your MBM, as well as that of Alex Abnos. They come across as more entertaining than the respective games. …
Sorry to hear that.
“I don’t know if you know the answer to this question, but looking at the mind boggling third place possibilities, I’m wondering what sort of mechanism did FIFA come up with to determine who plays whom in the 32 team Squamish that passes for the first knockout stage. Mexico, for example has at least 4 or 5 possible opponents from various third place finishers. Then there is the question of how the 2nd place finishers line up with the various 1st place finishers. My head is already spinning.
“I may just sleep through that stage. Wake me when we get to 16.”
I don’t know, but the people who created our Bracketology page do!
65 min South Korea can’t find a way through, and Castrop fouls in frustration.
A fourth South Korean sub – Park Jin-seop replaces … Kim Min-jae? Seriously? The Bayern Munich man who has had South Korea’s best scoring chance and several great defensive plays?
Oddly enough, that interrupted the crowd’s celebration of the Mexico goal. It’s as if they didn’t quite know what to do when someone scored in the game for which they bought tickets.
Goal! South Africa 1-0 South Korea (Maseko 63)
This time, the South Korean defense leaves a seam for the AEL Limassol forward to fire a laser along the ground inside the near post.
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63 min Moremi replaces Appollis as the crowd goes wild – because they’ve seen the Mexico score.
Make it 2-0 Mexico. Second place is there for the taking.
60 min SHOT ON GOAL! It’s a good cross for South Korea, headed to the far post, but Williams scrambles to make the save.
60 min As you were. South Korea possess. South Africa steal and try a fast break. South Korea disrupt. Repeat.
Peter Oh responds: “Oh no you didn’t Justin Kavanagh! I could not have imagined that on this Twelfth Night (or thereabouts) of the World Cup I’d suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune, witnessing Korea perform The Comedy of Errors. Hong Myung-bo had better turn up the heat on the hair dryer at halftime because I’m not ready to give up on my Midsummer Night’s Dream!”
58 min Maseko has become the lone threat for South Africa, which means South Korea can easily gain possession when he loses it.
South Korea go the other way quickly but maybe too quickly, losing possession quickly.
Makgopa falls to try to draw a foul, but no one’s buying it.
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57 min Son makes a run through the middle. He passes left to Castrop, he crosses for … nobody.
So the live standings would be
9 pts. Mexico
4 pts. South Korea
2 pts. South Africa
1 pt. Czechia
We have a goal in the other game. Both teams will be happy to learn that it’s for Mexico.
54 min Maseko looks lively again, but Lee Han-beom smartly slides to cut out a dangerous pass.
52 min More South Korean possession, and they’re exploring each flank. Looks like the right side is the winner, but a cross over the box eludes Castrop.
51 min Maseko in space! He turns back to his left foot, but two South Korea defenders are there for the block. In fact, replay confirms that the ball hit both of them. Teamwork.
49 min Corner for South Korea, who are starting the second half as they started the first.
Never mind – VAR hath decreed that this shall be a goal kick.
48 min This is better from South Korea, but Kim Jin-gyu overruns a nice pass.
South Africa turn it back over, and Son ponders a shot from 22 yards but taps it wide instead. Wrong choice – it rolls out of play.
47 min They kicked off while I worked to list all those subs. South Korea in possession, as they were for much of the first half without much success after the first few minutes.
Son Heung-min is coming in. So is Kim Jin-gyu.
And a THIRD substitution. Jens Castrop of Borussia Mönchengladbach checks in.
Son sprints across the field to the team huddle.
Players departing: Paik Seung-ho, Lee Tae-seok and … Hwang Hee-chan? Really?
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USA-Türkiye tomorrow. Not much at stake. Let’s see who drew the assignment for that one … me? Dang.
Hey, it seemed like it’d be a pretty big deal until the second games in the group. It’ll be fun to see the USA’s bench players in action.
Alex Abnos evidently found the first half of Czechia-Mexico a little dull. Go check in with him and tell him this game’s better.
Huh – just saw another replay of the double save on a South African flurry, and maybe Makgopa was not offside. He’ll rue missing that one.
Trey Brock writes: “I think the only way this match could’ve been any more more Southern is if they held it in South Carolina or South Dakota.”
Well out of South Alabama comes a country boy, says he’s lookin’ for a man named Jim.
Joshua Reynolds checks in: “So far it looks like South Korea have been the biggest disappointment at this World Cup. I thought they would be through the group stage absolutely no problem.”
They’re 45 minutes away from taking second in the group, but they looked less than sharp for the last half hour.
Halftime: South Africa 0-0 South Korea
A half that was kind of dull except when it wasn’t. Each team has the ability to conjure chances out of thin air.
45 min +4 Mudau makes a sharp, clean slide tackle to derail a South Korean attack.
A South African corner will likely bring this half to a close.
45 min +3 Offside again on South Africa. South Korea take a very long free kick. South Africa respond with a very long clearance.
45 min +1 OK, fine – four minutes.
South Africa scale back the pressure, giving South Korea a chance to remember how to pass. It works for a bit, but a ball down the right has too much pace and goes out for a goal kick.
45 min Offside call on South Africa as we await what should be three minutes of stoppage time.
Justin Kavanagh throws down the humor gauntlet: “So if Peter Oh was to, say marry the daughter of tonight’s referee, Señor Tello, any offspring would be entitled to use the positively Shakespearean hyphenated name of Oh-Tello! But let’s face it, the card-happy Argentine official would show Oh the red card before he got through the chapel door for his bad pun-ditry alone.”
43 min Another South African shot, this one blocked. South Korea reclaim but give it back again. The passing is so sloppy now.
42 min South Africa run a set piece they’ve clearly run on the training ground a few times, with a cross chested down to the feet of Mofokeng, who shoots high.
40 min Is everyone exhausted from the frenetic pace? South Africa win a free kick, and I think I could’ve gone to the concession stand in a different city before they put it back in play.
They work it up the field and earn a more dangerous free kick 35 yards out, and everyone is in a neat line 25 yards out.
38 min A lightning-quick attack from South Africa, and Maseko pivots into the center channel before unleashing a shot from 22 that sails just over the bar.
South Korea seem to be starting to drop a midfielder deep to help the three-man backline.
37 min The xG count favors South Africa, but that surely includes the shot that surely would’ve been ruled out by the AR’s flag had it gone in.
35 min South Africa go on transition like Magic Johnson’s Lakers, but the Korean defense respond well.
34 min South Africa swarm the South Korean box again, but the Koreans recover, and Mbatha bowls over Yang Hyun-jun at midfield for a free-kick.
Hwang Hee-chan shoots from distance, but it goes wide.
33 min No one on the referees’ message board I frequent has commented on this game. Boooooo.
30 min DOUBLE SAVE! South Africa thread a pass through the defense, and Mbatha fires a rocket on goal. It rebounds to Makgopa standing on the 6, and he shoots – right at the keeper!
The second shooter was probably offside, though.
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30 min South Korea with a shout for a free kick 25 yards out, but Tello isn’t buying it.
South Africa with a shout for a free kick near midfield, but Tello isn’t buying it.
29 min I believe we’ve hit the “this game needs a goal” phase.
28 min South Korea make a lot of smart precise runs on their corner kicks. It’s a refreshing change from the Wrestlemania Big … what’s the name for wrestling events with about 20 people? … that we see in other games.
26 min South Korea go long on the free kick for the offside infraction that preceded hydration time. They work on the right this time, and Hwang In-beom bangs a ball off a defender for a corner.
23 min Fridge raid! I mean … hydration break.
22 min South Korea attempt the same thing, but the cross sails out of play.
18 min Promising attack down the left for South Korea, then a cross all the way over the penalty area. Other players are in attendance, but they turn it over and …
South Africa has a 3-v-2 (3-v-3 if you include the keeper). Maseko has the ball and is in full sprint, but Lee Gi-hyuk recovers to make a vital block.
Off the corner kick, Kim Seung-gyu saves comfortably on a long-range shot.
17 min South Africa’s pressure doesn’t seem overwhelming, but South Korea have made some careless passes.
Speaking of which, South Africa booms a direct ball down the field, forgetting that there are no South African players in the vicinity. South Korea will reset.
16 min Free kick to South Africa, and everyone lines up across the top of the penalty area. Comes to nothing, but South Africa steal it back, and whirlwind of players in yellow descend upon the suddenly besieged South Korean defense.
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14 min Another South African cross from a distant part of the field, and Makgopa rises above an inattentive defense to get his head to the ball but sends it well wide.
13 min A lull after a scintillating start. South Korea ratchet up the pressure again, though, pinning South Africa in their own half.
11 min First chance in Mexico-Czechia went to the underdogs from Europe, which won’t be welcome news for these teams as they chase second place in the group.
10 min South Africa test Kim Seung-gyu’s aerial prowess with a high cross, but the Korean keeper is up for it. Literally.
7 min South Korea go over the top, the ball is crossed close to the goal, Oh Hyeon-gyu scuffs his shot, and Lee Jang-in dashes through the penalty area to rip a shot just wide.
No shortage of chances so far.
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5 min South Africa work the ball forward and earn a corner kick. The ball is recycled out to Mofokeng, who lashes a shot from 22 yards that might have been goalbound if not for a headed deflection from … it looks like Kim Min-jae again.
3 min South Africa reclaim possession and start dealing with the Korean press. I don’t envy them.
Got a replay of the corner – it was Bayern Munich defender Kim Min-jae who sent the glancing header just inside the near post, where Aubrey Modiba was there for the crucial block.
2 min Hwang Hee-chan (Wolves) gets free on the left and earns a corner kick. Snap header, and it’s CLEARED OFF THE LINE!
1 min South Korea play the ball back, and their three-man backline is at least 15 yards behind any of the midfielders. It almost as if they’re saying, “Yeah, that’s right. We’re playing with three. What are you gonna do?”
Kickoff
South Korea is in red. South Africa is in yellow. The referees are in black, and Tello blows the whistle.
I was worried for a bit that we’d start without a word from Peter Oh: “I’m looking forward to this clash of the Souths, and hoping that Oh Hyeon-gyu (no relation, unfortunately) has another ooh-aah moment. His winner against Czechia was oh so nice!”
And your last reminder for at least 15 minutes that Alex Abnos is tracking Czechia’s effort to do the impossible in Azteca …
In case I haven’t mentioned, this game is in Estadio Monterrey, in the Monterrey suburbs.
Reminder of what’s at stake
Here are the group standings:
6 pts. Mexico – group winner
3 pts. South Korea, 0 goal difference
1 pt. Czechia, -1 GD
1 pt. South Africa, -2 GD
So if South Korea win, they’re second in the group and will advance to face Canada in Temporarily Renamed Los Angeles Stadium.
If these teams draw, South Korea will be second in the group unless Czechia pull off the impossible and win in Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca against the home team. Even then, South Korea would almost certainly advance. I ran the odds today and found that the odds of any 4-point team being kept out of the round of 32 is less than 1%.
If South Africa win … repeat everything I just said about South Korea. If that happens, South Korea will have a long, nervous wait to see if they advance as a third-place team with a reasonable goal difference.
Referee with an interesting history
Facundo Tello (Argentina) is noteworthy for several reasons, including these:
1. He was the only South American referee selected to work at Euro 2024. Scotland were upset with him, to the extent that Steve Clarke questioned the practice of bringing a referee from another continent to the Euros. As we all know, European referees are infallible. Especially the usage of VAR in the Premier League. Polished and always correct. Is it clear yet that I’m not being serious?
Guardian podcasters reviewed the play in question and came up with a consensus “... maybe”?
2. He showed 10 (ten) red cards in the 2022 Argentine Champions Trophy final. Seven of them, though, were awarded when the player who scored Racing’s winning goal celebrated a bit too much for Boca Juniors, leading to a melee in which five Boca players and two Racing players were sent off. Until then, it was your run-of-the-mill 10v9 game.
His card-dealing has caused some trepidation in South Korea.
That said, he was also the referee when South Korea advanced to the knockout rounds in 2022 with a late winner against Portugal.
One other note: He was the referee for the DR Congo vs. Jamaica intercontinental World Cup qualifying playoff but had to leave injured in the 111th minute.
ARs are fellow Argentinians Juan Pablo Belatti and Gabriel Chade. More unusually, the head VAR is also from Argentina – Hernán Mastrangelo.
It’s a big evening for officials from Argentina: Yael Falcon Perez is the center ref in the other group match running at the same time, Czechia v Mexico.
Ian Williams takes up the task of finding matchups in any sport between South Africa and South Korea. He found three matches in hockey of the field variety, all draws. Back in men’s soccer, they met in the 1997 U-20 World Cup – also a draw. Finally, in 2019, South Korea took a 1-0 win over South Africa in the 2017 U-20 World Cup. That Korean team reached the final before falling to Ukraine.
Team XIs: Son benched
SOUTH AFRICA
Williams; Modiba, Mbokazi, Okon, Mudau; Sithole, Mbatha, Mofokeng; Appollis, Makgopa, Maseko
Relebohile Mofokeng and Evidence Makgopa replace Jayden Adams and Igraam Rayners, both of whom had started both games so far. The big change, though, is that Sphephelo Sithole returns after a one-match ban to replace Teboho Mokoena, who has South Africa’s only goal in this World Cup and was hailed as Bafana Bafana’s “glue player” in our team guide (see below). Mokoena is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Themba Zwane received a three-match ban after seeing red in the opener.
All but seven South African players are in their country’s domestic league. Sithole (Tondela, Portugal) is one exception. Young players Mbekezeli Mbokazi (Chicago) and Olwethu Makhanya (Philadelphia) play in Major League Soccer. Kyle Foster (Burnley) is the only player who spent last season in one of the glitzier European leagues.
SOUTH KOREA
Kim Seung-gyu; Lee Gi-hyuk, Kim Min-jae, Lee Han-boem; Seol Young-woo, Paik Seung-ho, Hwang In-beom, Kim Moon-hwan; Lee Jae-sung, Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in
Lee Kang-in is the only holdover from the frontline that started the first two games. Hwang Hee-chan and Oh Hyeon-gyu start in place of Lee Jae-sung and … Son Heung-min? The man who spent a dazzling decade at Tottenham Hotspur and now plays with Los Angeles FC is available on the bench.
Our team guide notes some consternation over Hong Myung-bo’s switching from the safety of a back four to a more daring 3-4-3. Hong was in charge of South Korea’s winless 2014 campaign and returned to the job when former U.S. coach Jürgen Klinsmann was dismissed. (He also played a bit, I hear.)
As a child of the 70s, I’m slightly baffled that the John Denver classic Take Me Home Country Roads has become the unofficial theme song of this World Cup. I’m guessing very few of the people singing along have been to “the place I belong, West Virginia.”
It’s beautiful, though.
One team in the 48-team field chose a site in West Virginia for their training base. Can you name that team?
Preamble
South Africa have never advanced past the group stage of the World Cup.
Ever.
They were banned for decades and qualified for the final tournament for the first time in 2018, taking two draws and a loss. They picked up their first win in 2002 but agonizingly missed advancing on the goals-scored tiebreaker.
The only other time Bafana Bafana have qualified for the big dance was when they hosted in 2010, where they took a sensational win over France in their final group-stage game but missed the knockout rounds on goal difference.
South Korea have also hosted the World Cup in this century, and they made the most of it. In four previous appearances, they had not managed a win. In 2002, they won three games and reached the semifinals. They’ve qualified for every final tournament since then and reached the knockout rounds twice.
This is the first matchup between these two countries in the men’s World Cup. I’m actually trying to see if they’ve ever played each other in anything.
To follow the concurrent game in the group, please join Alex Abnos at the link below:
Beau will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s what everyone needs in the group:
Mexico are through as group winners and will face a third-placed team from Group C, E, F, H or I. South Korea could match their points total but Mexico beat them so would be top on head-to-head.
South Korea would guarantee qualification with a win or draw against South Africa.
Czechia would progress in second if they beat Mexico, South Africa beat South Korea and they ultimately finish above South Africa. Should they win and finish third they may have a route.
South Africa progress in second if they beat South Korea and ultimately finish above Czechia. Should they win and finish third they may have a route.
You can read all the World Cup permutations here:
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