The ANC’s loss of its majority in the recent election, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s formation of a government of national unity, have been interpreted by some commentators as indicating the end of the ANC as a “dominant party”. That is, one which recurrently wins elections and hence dominates a political system.
Their argument, and it is not unconvincing, is that the ANC vote share has consistently fallen since its high point in the 2009 election, when it won 66%, to its new low of 40%. This is taken to indicate an inexorable decline which the ANC appears unlikely or unable to reverse.
However, there is a counterargument, by Oxford Analytica, the global geopolitical risk analysts, which needs exploring. This suggests that the unity government may allow the ANC to continue its dominance of the country’s political system within the framework of a multi-party coalition. This narrative cites the ANC’s continued ultimate control of the key levers of power by its retention of the presidency, with its extensive powers of appointment and agenda setting, and key ministries.
