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Tom Moultrie, Professor of Demography, University of Cape Town

South Africa’s 2022 census may not be accurate enough for official use: demographers explain what went wrong

The 2022 South African census set an undesirable record: it is the census with the highest undercount among those where the undercount is measured and reported by the United Nations Population Division. The reported undercount of 31% is some 10 percentage points higher than the previous highest notified undercount (in Comoros in 2017).

While the results from the 2022 South African census, released in October 2023, were adjusted for the undercount, it means the results are more estimates than counts, producing a number of anomalies in the census data. These call their usefulness into question.

A census is, primarily, as accurate a count as possible of the number of people in a country at a point in time. It attempts to describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population. It also provides key benchmark estimates of fertility and mortality of the population.

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