South Africa needs investments worth R250 billion (US$15.64 billion) over the next 10 years to adapt to climate change. This amount would get the country to just a minimal level of adaptation. A team of researchers from the African Climate and Development Initiative and the Energy Systems Research Group at the University of Cape Town researched what the country’s priorities should be to secure water supplies, protect settlements from floods and heat, protect roads from damage, help farmers cope with the changing weather and protect lives and the economy. Climate adaptation researcher Anna Taylor was part of the team and explains.
What are the biggest climate risks South Africa faces?
Our team reviewed South Africa’s latest climate risk evidence and identified the main concerns for South Africa between now and 2050.
These are:
water scarcity
health threats
food insecurity
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damage to infrastructure
biodiversity losses
declining labour productivity.
These risks are linked to increased global warming and the likelihood of extreme weather happening more regularly (heatwaves, droughts, heavy rains, coastal storm surges, high winds and wildfires).
The whole country is affected. But we found evidence that the KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Limpopo and Eastern Cape provinces are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, and need priority support.
Most of South Africa’s sectors, provinces and municipalities have already experienced costly and damaging impacts from the current level of 1.3°C global warming above pre-industrial climate levels. However, there is no list of climate impacts and associated losses and damages. This record must be set up to track the full picture and evidence the case for adaptation spending.
So what should South Africa be doing first?
We came up with seven goals for South Africa to adapt to the biggest climate threats:
Water and sanitation systems need to be stronger so they can cope with droughts and floods. Water supports health, jobs and the economy.
Healthcare and sanitation need to be improved, especially in shack settlements, to protect vulnerable households from floods and extreme heat. Disaster responses, early warning systems and climate information services must be revamped.
To make sure that food is available and affordable, farmers and fishers must get support to adapt to hotter, windier and less predictable weather.
Nature and biodiversity must be protected.
Roads, rail and ports must be able to withstand heavier rain, heat, strong winds and storm surges.
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Towns and cities are the nodes of economic activity and services for most of the population, and must adapt to withstand climate change.
South Africa has a Climate Change Act which says that all levels of government must take steps to implement the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan. This plan manages climate risks. The climate change law must be enabled and enforced by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment. Helping people to implement the law is just as important as penalising those not complying with it.
What needs to be done to reach these goals?
Within these seven adaptation goals, we identified 36 actions that must happen soon. These are the minimum actions needed to protect valuable natural and built assets, human well-being and economic activity. Taking these actions could save an estimated 158,000 lives over the next 10 years.
Firstly, some things can be done that are cost-effective and immediately positive. For example, over 50,000 rented portable toilets in shack settlements could be replaced with 1,000 sanitation blocks. This would save money over the long term. Upgrading portable toilets near food vendors has health benefits too.
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More lives will be saved if the Southern African Development Community’s regional drought monitoring system is improved, and if communities get actionable early warnings about floods and extreme weather.
South Africa must aim to ensure a 98% reliable supply of water as the climate warms. To do this, at least 50 updated municipal water and safety plans must be published, and 200 water monitoring dashboards set up. These dashboards would be publicly available summaries that show how much water is being used and stored each week and what the water quality is.
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One million waterless sanitation systems should be installed, with a focus on schools, creches and sport halls that currently depend on pit latrines.
To save water, 1,000km² of water catchment areas must be cleared of invasive plants. Water reclamation and reuse schemes should be expanded.
To protect communities, 100 emergency shelters that are climate-resilient must be built. These don’t exist yet and South Africa’s community halls are not designed or equipped for climate-related extreme events.
About 2,000 additional social workers need to be trained and 700 clinics equipped to deal with an increase in water- and vector-borne diseases.
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About 7,000km of rivers, roads and culverts need urgent maintenance. If 50km of coastal dunes are restored and 500km of new flood defences are built, this will help protect high-risk communities against floods. About 1% of roads and rail will need an overhaul to be flood resilient. A further 1,000 public transport assets such as bus depots, taxi ranks and rail infrastructure will need to be relocated out of high-risk zones.
Farmers need support to develop and use drought-resistant crops and heat-tolerant livestock and fish. Ten informal markets should get solar-powered refrigeration.
A 40% subsidy for drip irrigation and support for shade netting can help farmers. Government should roll out 100 training courses for farmers and fishers. It should also work with insurers to extend climate insurance to those not yet covered.
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We recommend that 50 community leader training courses be held on how to interpret climate information and promote suitable response measures. A national climate impact inventory should be developed with 2,000 ground responders trained and equipped to collect and log data in the inventory.
To adapt ecosystems to climate change, 2,000 agricultural extension officers must be trained and hired by the government. Biodiversity protection must be made stronger.
Finally, government capacity must be built through sector adaptation plans. A system needs to be set up to gather data and assess how the adaptation measures are working. This should be funded at R10 million (US$600,000) a year for ten years.
How should this be funded?
All of this will cost an estimated R25 billion (US$1.5 billion) per annum over the next 10 years – a total of R250 billion (US$15 billion). Three quarters of this will be spent on adapting South Africa’s water and sanitation systems to drying conditions and drought and flood intensification.
Development finance and donor funds will be needed to adapt services provided by the government. But the private sector must increase its investment in climate change adaptation as climate disasters become worse over the next 10 years.
Climate financing platforms that can blend public and private investment in support of adaptation and climate resilient development are needed.
This research was undertaken at the request of the South African government to support the development of South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.
Anna Taylor receives funding from the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), the ClimateWorks Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the Canadian International Development Research Centre, and the French Develoment Agency.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
