Rachel Reeves has made some difficult decisions in her first year or so as chancellor of the Exchequer, and not all of them, in all candour, are necessarily ones she might opt for now. It has left her and the public finances in a difficult position – one that might be even more serious than has hitherto been supposed.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), one of the more established and well respected organisms in the economic research ecosystem, has suggested that the current “day to day” deficit in the Treasury’s current account could stretch to £41.2bn at the end of the forecast period in 2029 – a figure that would break the Reeves rulebook, as well as the patience of the markets, in fairly violent fashion.
