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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Business
Jonathan Prynn

‘Soft landing’ for house prices is still possible, Nationwide says

The fall in house prices gathered pace last month but there are still few signs of a full-scale crash being triggered by soaring mortgage rates.

The average cost of a home in the UK dipped 0.2% to £260,828 in July, according to latest figures from leading lender Nationwide.

That increased the annual rate of decline from 3.5% to 3.8%, the fastest rate since July 2009 when the economy was being ravaged by the fallout from the global financial crisis.

But the building society said that a “soft landing” for the property market was still possible despite a surge in the cost of mortgages over recent months.

Average two-year fixed rates are now 6.85% while five year fixes are 6.37%, according to latest Moneyfacts figures. Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner, said: ”As a result, housing affordability remains stretched for those looking to buy a home with a mortgage. For example, a prospective buyer, earning the average wage and looking to buy the typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit, would see monthly mortgage payments account for 43% of their take-home pay — assuming a 6% mortgage rate.

“This is up from 32% a year ago and well above the long-run average of 29%. Moreover, deposit requirements continue to present a high hurdle — with a 10% deposit equivalent to 55% of gross annual average income.

He added: “Nevertheless, a relatively soft landing is still achievable, providing broader economic conditions evolve in line with our — and most other forecasters’ — expectations. In particular, unemployment is expected to remain below 5% and the vast majority of existing borrowers should be able to weather the impact of higher borrowing costs.”

John Ennis, CEO of agents Chestertons, said: “In London, the property market remained stable throughout July with buyer registrations reaching the same level as in previous months. While there were fewer first-time-buyers with support from the Bank of Mum and Dad, we witnessed an increase in cash buyers and higher-valued property sales in excess of £1 million.”

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