The euphoria stemming from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the United States in June is yet to subside. All of India continues to savour the images that marked this highly publicised visit. Those with long memories of U.S.-India relations in the past are, hence, left to wonder whether this is the same U.S. that had let India down in the past at crucial moments.
Two U.S. Presidents in particular, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1963 and Richard Nixon in 1971, are still remembered for their infamous roles in this respect. Johnson for denying aid to India in the wake of China’s perfidious attack on India in 1962, and Nixon during the India-Pakistan conflict in 1971 for sending the U.S. Seventh Fleet steaming up the Bay of Bengal in a show of force intended to deter India from supporting the ‘liberation struggle’ in East Bengal, which ultimately led to the birth of a new nation, Bangladesh.
Editorial | Strategic high: On India-U.S. ties and strategic cooperation
This time, there was no room, whatsoever, to doubt in which corner the U.S. stands in relation to India. The promise of the transfer of technology in several areas, most conspicuously in terms of producing fighter jet engines for the Indian Air Force, and holding out the promise of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) marks a remarkable turn in the American attitude. All this, and with the many more agreements on critical technologies on the anvil, could lead to a quantum jump in India’s military and aerospace capabilities.
Many are bound to view this as an attempt by the U.S. to persuade India to accept an alliance status, vis-à-vis, the U.S. The fine print on the recent negotiations does not, however, indicate this as a possibility at this time. Strategic ties are certain to attain a new dimension, and the U.S. side certainly hopes it could lead to “a deeper, more effective, and more diverse defence partnership”. Yet, and despite India’s attractiveness to the U.S. as a huge market for goods, and increasingly as a destination for state-of-the-art military items, there are ‘miles to go’ before India is viewed as an alliance partner.
Perceptions on what constitutes a successful visit often vary, but all things considered, the Prime Minister’s visit to the U.S. this time should be deemed a major success, and as enhancing India’s position as a prime defence technological partner of the U.S. It is certain to not only favourably impact India-U.S. relations but also India’s standing in the world.
Indian visits then and now
Every Indian Prime Minister is, of course, entitled to his or her place in the sun. A good visit to the U.S. by an Indian Prime Minister is generally viewed as one clear index of India’s standing in the comity of nations. It is, hence, tempting to compare Mr. Modi’s latest visit with that of other Indian Prime Ministers since Independence. There were visits by Jawaharlal Nehru (he met with Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy), and Lal Bahadur Shastri’s visit never happened in the end), while Indira Gandhi’s visit to Washington as Prime Minister was a disaster of sorts, with both India and the U.S. having their own versions of what transpired. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit was by all accounts deemed a success, breaking many previous shibboleths. Admittedly, none of them matched the euphoria created by the visit of two latter day Prime Ministers, Manmohan Singh and Mr. Modi.
Only the most foolhardy would possibly attempt a comparison between the visits of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his tenure, specially the one in 2005, and Mr. Modi’s latest endeavour. The question uppermost in everyone’s minds would be whether ‘ending nuclear apartheid’ (imposed on India after the 1974 nuclear tests ‘Buddha is smiling’), or the defence technological breakthroughs achieved during the recent visit are more significant for India’s future.
The civil nuclear deal marked a shift
Admittedly, the opening up of civil nuclear cooperation between India and the U.S. marked the beginning of a tectonic shift in global affairs at the start of the 21st century, unmatched before or since. Securing a waiver under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and obtaining the approval of the U.S. Congress for the iconic 123 Agreement that paved the way for an India-specific Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) subsequently, were not merely unprecedented, but one time achievements, the like of which have few equals in the annals of world history. As a result, India today has the freedom to maintain a select number of reactors outside IAEA Safeguards, enabling it to utilise them for military purposes. The freedom India currently enjoys for reprocessing and enrichment are other critical outcomes that stemmed from the visit.
What is also interesting to note is that all this was achieved despite the entire U.S. Establishment (with the sole exception of President George Bush) being opposed to these concessions — a testimony to the nature of the personal relationship that existed between then U.S. President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Seldom has such a shift been witnessed in the global arena, due solely to the personal chemistry between leaders of two countries — a testimony to the civilisational attributes of the two leaders at the time.
During Dr. Manmohan Singh’s state visit to the U.S. in 2009, the pièce de résistance was the exchanges between two of the world’s most cerebral leaders at the time, viz., U.S. President Barack Obama and Dr. Manmohan Singh. Mr. Obama’s remarks at the start of his private meeting with Dr. Singh, ‘You are My Guru’, says it all. What followed was an avalanche of results, and there was no obvious quid pro quo expected or sought for. Both in 2005 and in 2009, it was evident that it was India’s reputation as a civilisational entity that seemed to weigh with U.S. leaders at the time.
Be cautious, look at history
The United States of the 21st century is certainly different in many respects from the U.S. in the late 20th century. In the euphoria that exists following Mr. Modi’s visit, it is, however, desirable for India to be cautious and heed the lessons of history. India certainly is not, at least at this stage, the kind of ally that the U.S. seeks or demands. Moreover, U.S. politics is currently in a state of flux — more so than at most times in the past. The individual preferences of the U.S. President in office and the ‘swing factor’ in U.S. foreign policy are other aspects that foreign countries, India included, can seldom comprehend adequately. India again is not unfamiliar with the way the U.S. changes its priorities, and friends.
Consequently, and despite the warmth of the reception accorded to Mr. Modi in Washington, India should realise that it cannot at any time, be the kind of ally that the U.S. seeks. Sober leaders on both sides must also understand that the current euphoria in relations notwithstanding, the situation has been dictated due to circumstance rather than conviction. This must not be lost sight of by India in particular. For instance, India cannot possibly be part of an arrangement such as the AUKUS Pact that binds the U.S. with the United Kingdom and Australia. The fundamentals underlying the Quad (India, Japan, Australia and the U.S.) and AUKUS are very different.
India must, instead, use the outcome of the Prime Minister’s visit to skilfully function as a ‘bridge power’. It is eminently suited to play such a role, and should not be inveigled — through blandishments such as defence ties — to play the role of a subordinate to the U.S. in the politics of the Asia-Pacific.
India’s potential should be marshalled to act as a bridge between conflicting parties in the Indo-Pacific, in West Asia and in Europe. This could be the enduring legacy of the Prime Minister’s latest visit to the U.S., which has occasioned so much of interest not only in the U.S. and India, but across the world. It is for India to seize the moment and play its rightful role.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
