THE SNP are set to win the majority of Scottish seats in the General Election on July 4, according to a huge new poll.
Commissioned by The Economist, the survey projected that the SNP are on course to win 29 seats in Scotland – a majority of the 57 on offer.
Labour were predicted to win 23 Scottish seats, with the LibDems on five and the Tories facing a complete wipeout.
In Scotland, the SNP are estimated to retain 26 seats and gain an additional three from the Conservatives. Labour are predicted to gain 19 seats from the SNP and three from the Tories, ending up on 23.
The poll, conducted by We Think, asked 18,595 voters for their views and used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain.
However, the Scottish results have turned out some rather strange predictions.
Despite the strong result predicted for the SNP, the party’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is projected to lose his Aberdeen South seat to Labour – who in 2019 won just 8.4% of the vote in the constituency. The Tories were on 35.9% while Flynn won 44.7%.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, a seat which was won by Scottish Tory David Mundell in 2019, is predicted to swing to Labour – who won just 8.5% of the vote in the last General Election.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, which is held by Tory minister John Lamont, is also predicted to be won by Labour – despite the party coming fourth with just 4.7% of the vote in 2019.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, where Labour also came fourth with just 4.6% of the vote in 2019, is also predicted to be won by Keir Starmer’s party.
Across the whole of the UK, the We Think MRP poll predicted Labour are “on course to achieve the biggest majority recorded since universal suffrage in the UK, on 465 seats compared to 76 for the Tories”.
It projected that 25% of people who voted Tory in 2019 will now back Reform UK, helping bring about an “historic low” for the Conservatives.
We Think said: “Disproportionate swings to Labour in seats with substantial Tory majorities make almost any Conservative seat vulnerable.”
We Think’s poll was conducted from May 30 until June 21.
A second MRP poll, also published on Wednesday, also contained very bad news for the Tories.
The survey, conducted by FindOutNow for the Daily Mirror and GB News, found that the Conservatives may win just 60 seats in the vote on July 4.
Labour were projected to win a massive 450, with the LibDems on 71 and Reform UK on 18.
The SNP were predicted to take 24 Scottish seats in that second poll.
FindOutNow surveyed 19,000 people between June 14 and June 24.
