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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Paul Hutcheon

SNP options on independence are limited and Humza Yousaf must urge patience

Overlooking Independence minister Jamie Hepburn’s Scottish Parliament office is the New Calton cemetery.

Any spare plots could be used to bury Nicola Sturgeon’s failed referendum strategies.

Plan A - a deal with the Tory Government - was rejected by successive Conservative Prime Ministers.

The second option of Holyrood organising a vote without Westminster’s approval was killed off by judges.

Her last throw of the dice - turning the general election into a ‘de facto referendum - was undermined by internal dissent.

The SNP’s independence ‘convention’ on June 24th has been called to agree a new approach.

Hepburn, alongside new First Minister Humza Yousaf, will play a key role on the day, but he has limited room to manoeuvre.

All roads to a referendum appear blocked by the Tories and the alternatives reek of desperation.

Some people want to enlist the support of foreign countries behind calls for indyref2, but a motion passed by the parliament in Luxembourg is unlikely to prove decisive.

Hepburn’s positive response to a multi-option referendum, including devo max, is fascinating as he is clearly looking to life under a Labour Government.

If Starmer fails to win a majority, so the theory goes, he will have to make concessions on a referendum to the SNP to pass legislation.

But there are flaws with argument that the SNP will struggle to counter.

Starmer is adamant he will not budge on indyref2 and a minority government led by him will look to the Lib Dems, not the SNP.

Showing any weakness on the SNP would be weaponised by the Tories and lead to a loss of votes in the Red Wall.

Some on the Labour Left, such as former MSP Neil Findlay, support a multi-option referendum, but their influence has waned.

A real alternative could be to hold Labour’s feet to the fire on delivering more powers to Holyrood without a referendum.

Hepburn and Yousaf could at the same time try to build up support for a modernised case for independence.

Arguing for a referendum would be easier if independence was the settled will of the Scottish people.

This month’s convention should be grounded in realism and an acceptance the SNP have a weak hand to play at this moment in time.

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