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John Gibson

Small change that can make a big difference for Newcastle United's Champions League hopes

As we descend upon Elland Road as much in need as Leeds for vastly differing reasons, Eddie Howe will have spent the week contemplating what is required to guarantee Newcastle a victory parade.

When still a top three team so late in the season Howe's search for little improvements to complete the job is understandable. And that brings us to the crux of the matter. It may initially sound harsh, certainly eyebrow-raising when United boast the best defensive stats in the Premier League, but they have something of a recurring problem at the back right now.

True, United have let in only 29 goals in 34 PL fixtures but whereas they once led the way as the meanest of the mean by some distance that has changed as goals have been leaked and habitual champions Manchester City have closed the gap to just two with 31 in their against column.

READ MORE: Gary Neville sends transfer warning to Newcastle in hope Howe doesn't suffer Lampard fate

The significant stat is that Newcastle have managed just one clean sheet in their last 14 league games - 16 matches on the bounce if you include the League Cup semi-final and final.

Immediately before that the Mags had produced six successive PL shut-outs which was the basis of their points gathering. Give nothing away and there is a guaranteed reward of some sort.

Put simply United are consistently giving up goals which means they must score at least twice to win matches which as a constant demand is not an insignificant one. Incredibly they have managed to do just that in seven of the last 10 matches - the eighth victory was the one clean sheet against Man U (2-0) - but to continue down such a path with regular success is a big ask.

I must stress that this is not a matter of being overly critical of a magnificent team that has done every Geordie proud over a long and largely successful season. I like all of us am grateful to be where we are after the misery of the last decade and a half and I remain convinced United will qualify for the Champions League.

However there is no getting away from the fact that as a perfectionist Howe will have been addressing United's defensive stats with the club's analysts this week as he looks to return United to the winner's enclosure. He is a man for great detail.

Two other topics of conversation which will no doubt have preoccupied him and his coaching staff: how do they get the best out of Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak, United's two most potent attackers who are both at their goalscoring best marauding from a central position. And how can United compensate for the loss of Sean Longstaff's energy in the crucial midfield battleground.

Longstaff's absence has quietly affected many. First the back four have missed his selfless protection but then so too has Bruno Guimaraes.

Bruno has been playing with a persistent ankle injury and by his sky high standards has seemed under cooked of late. Demanding the highest standards of himself, he has become frustrated and consequently always likely to give up niggly free-kicks.

It is not without note that Longstaff failed to start against both Aston Villa and Arsenal when United were overrun in midfield and lost. The basis of the Gunners victory was rooted in the central areas where Martin Ostegaard and Jorginho took a stranglehold. This time Newcastle will want to be the bosses in the middle third providing a platform which will eventually yield victory.

In its own way Leeds is as big a match as Arsenal was. There is as much at stake for both teams with time running out. We might be searching for answers to return United to the high standards they have achieved all season but the Mags are the class act here. One team is in the top three, the other in the bottom three.

If those deserving are to be rewarded then Newcastle win the battle of the Uniteds. Liverpool do not warrant a Champions League place, not at United's expense anyway, after the rare indifferent season they have endured staggering from flop to crisis until, pressure off, they have freewheeled to a few successive victories.

If it is to the exclusion of their old arch enemy Man U then that is another matter. We care not who wins that little local skirmish.

Brighton, the other club making a late run and lauded by the neutrals for their ambition as though others possess none, blew up spectacularly at home to Everton losing 5-1 and still have to play the top three sides whereas Liverpool have a relatively easy run in.

So it is looking like Newcastle, Man U and Liverpool for the final two Champions League positions and as I have done for so long I am betting on those who matter to make it.

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