For shares of Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ: AEHR), it's hard to imagine a hotter start to 2026. As of the Jan. 20 close, the stock is already up 44% on the year.
The most recent earnings release on Jan. 8 provided mixed signals, but ultimately helped the stock shoot up 16% the next day. With revenues falling, but millions in new artificial intelligence (AI) orders coming in, what does the future hold for the semiconductor stock?
AEHR’s Earnings: Revenues Plummet, But Booking Projections Come in Strong
On Jan. 8, Aehr reported its Q2 fiscal 2026 (FY2026) earnings. (Note that Aehr's fiscal reporting period is ahead of the calendar period.) The results painted a mixed picture. The firm recorded revenue of $9.9 million, down 27% year-over-year (YOY) and significantly below the $11.5 million analysts had forecast.
However, Aehr’s adjusted loss per share (EPS) was significantly better than expected, coming in at a loss of 4 cents versus an estimated loss of 8 cents.
The company’s adjusted net loss was $1.3 million, compared with a net income of about $700,000 last year. Notably, the company’s effective backlog increased from $17.5 million in the prior quarter to $18.3 million.
Despite negative earnings news, Aehr's management provided guidance that was a bright spot in the report.
Over the next two quarters combined, Aehr expects revenue of $25 million to $30 million. This compares to the $32.3 million in revenue Aehr generated in the back half of its fiscal 2025. Aehr also projects bookings of $60 million to $80 million during this period. These bookings can then translate into significant revenue during fiscal 2027.
Bookings coming through and translating into revenue in FY2027 would put Aehr solidly back in growth mode. Based on the company’s guidance, total revenue in FY2026 will be between $46 million and $51 million. The expectation that Aehr’s business will begin to recover stems from its growing presence in the artificial intelligence (AI) market.
AI-Optimism Fuels AEHR as SiC Takes a Backseat
Aehr also said on Jan. 8 that it received over $5.5 million in additional orders for its Sonoma systems. Aehr notes that these orders came from multiple “leading-edge AI companies." Sonoma demand is accelerating—less than halfway through its fiscal Q3, the company has already received more orders than in all of fiscal Q2.
While Sonoma and AI-driven demand are key growth drivers for Aehr, it is important to understand why the company’s revenue is still declining steeply despite these drivers.
Previously, Aehr saw significant demand from the electric vehicle market. Customers used its FOX-P family of products to stress-test power chips based on silicon carbide (SiC), resulting in strong revenue growth from 2021 to 2023.
SiC-based devices provide substantial benefits over EV power chip technologies that currently dominate the market. This includes the ability to extend EV range by 5% to 10% and cut charging time in half. Aehr believes that most, if not all, EV companies will move toward SiC-based technology in the future.
However, slowing growth in the EV market has hurt SiC demand more recently. As SiC demand was previously the company’s largest revenue driver, and AI-driven revenue is still small in comparison, Aehr’s overall sales are dropping.
Pursuant to this, Aehr says that the bulk of its expected bookings are AI-driven, while attributing “not very much at all” of them to SiC. Furthermore, Aehr believes that initial AI customers will expand their orders meaningfully during 2027 and 2028. The company estimates that the AI test-and-burn-in market is between $8 billion and $10 billion today and could reach $15 billion. Clearly, Aehr’s revenues and potential bookings are very small in comparison, providing a large growth opportunity.
AEHR: AI-Upside Is Real for This Unproven Player
Aehr’s outlook shifted in a significantly positive direction after its latest financial updates. Still, based on FY2027 estimates, the stock trades at more than 12 times its forward sales. That is not a cheap figure.
However, further momentum in the company’s AI business over the next several quarters could lead to a significant increase in sales estimates. But there is no guarantee that this will materialize, or that Aehr will meet expectations that are already set. Aehr continues to be a stock with strong upside potential, but also prevalent risks.
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The article "Small Cap Spike: Semi Stock AEHR Up +40% in 2026 Post-Earnings" first appeared on MarketBeat.
