So how do the Green Bay Packers go about slowing down star Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, or at least limiting the number of big plays during Saturday’s showdown at Lambeau Field? Well, it begins with the defensive front getting after Kirk Cousins.
“I do know this, if he’s (Kirk Cousins) got a clean pocket, you’re in trouble,” said coach Matt LaFleur on Wednesday. “Even when there has been stuff in his face or guys coming free, he’s still done an unbelievable job at hanging in there, delivering the football, and taking the shots. I think he’s playing outstanding.”
When throwing from a clean pocket, Cousins is completing 72% of his passes at 6.7 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions, but more importantly, that’s more time that the Packers secondary is going to have to defend Jefferson, along with the other Minnesota playmakers. Steady pressure, on the other hand, can limit that time in coverage, stifle long-developing plays, and create turnover chances.
The Vikings’ offensive line has been susceptible in pass protection this season, ranking 21st in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric, with Cousins being under duress on 36% of his dropbacks, the seventh highest rate among quarterbacks, according to PFF. This is something the Packers’ defensive front needs to take advantage of during Sunday’s matchup.
However, as LaFleur pointed out, just getting to Cousins is only half of the battle; bringing him down is crucial as well, with his willingness to hang in the pocket and take a hit if needed. Cousins’ nine touchdown passes when under pressure is the third most in football this season, and he’s also averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which again, is the third most and also nearly a full yard more than when throwing from a clean pocket. The Packers saw this first hand in Week 1 when they were able to get to Cousins on a hefty 42% of his dropbacks, but he was still able to average 10.5 yards per attempt while throwing for 136 yards. There were several big plays in that game where it felt like the Packers were a split second away from bringing Cousins down, but they were ultimately just a bit late.
On the flip side, Green Bay has, unfortunately, been very inconsistent when it comes to getting after opposing quarterbacks, ranking 16th in pass rush win rate, and naturally, it’s been even more challenging without Rashan Gary. Then when they do generate pressure, they haven’t been great at converting those opportunities to sacks, which, as referenced already, can very much hurt them against Cousins.
In Green Bay’s second-half shutout against Miami last Sunday, LaFleur referenced their ability to pressure Tua Tagovailoa in those final quarters as one of the key elements to their defensive success. Some good news is that Preston Smith, Jarran Reed, and Kenny Clark have been playing some of their best football over the last few weeks, Kingsley Enagbare has continued to pile up splash plays, and Devonte Wyatt has proven to be a disruptive presence as well.
Through 16 weeks, Jefferson has amassed 123 receptions and 1,756 receiving yards this season, so it’s not as if there is a perfect formula out there for slowing him down. Really no team has been able to. But limiting the number of explosive plays will be a must for the Packers. I wouldn’t be surprised if this means another heavy dose of Cover-2 to keep everything in front of them, but all 11 defenders being on the same page with no miscommunications and swarming to the ball carrier will be of the utmost importance as well.
Along with Green Bay’s ability to pressure Tagovailoa in that second half, there weren’t any coverage breakdowns like there were in the first half, and the Packers’ tackling was sound for most of the game. I’m sure, as you all recall, broken coverages and poor tackling were prevalent during the Packers’ first matchup with Minnesota, and both have continued to rear their ugly heads at various points throughout the season. Also, just as they did against the Dolphins, Green Bay is also going to have to capitalize on turnover opportunities as well against Cousins, who has thrown 11 interceptions this season.
Against the Rams, specifically, we saw Joe Barry create some pressures by dialing up a few blitzes for Baker Mayfield. However, that then leads to one less defender in coverage, so I don’t see that being the case this week, given the number of playmakers this Vikings’ offense possesses and their big play ability. Ultimately, it’s going to be up to the Packers’ front five to get after Cousins and win their one-on-one matchups.
As he should, Jefferson will garner the most attention, but this is a Vikings offense that’s averaging 25.2 points per game this season and isn’t short on players that can hurt opposing defenses. Dalvin Cook is sixth in total rushing yards in 2022, while TJ Hockenson is second among tight ends in receiving yards.
“The offense is definitely loaded with weapons,” said LaFleur. “Obviously, Jefferson is the best in the game. You got Dalvin Cook, who you could argue is the best in the game. I think Kirk is playing outstanding football.” LaFleur would later add, “(Adam) Thielen has been so consistent throughout the course of his career. (KJ) Osborn. I mean, they got a lot of guys on that offense that can really make you pay.”
Again, there is no magic solution for the Packers that will slow Jefferson and the Vikings’ offense, even pressuring Cousins doesn’t guarantee that. But the alternative is that if he has consistent time in the pocket and the Green Bay defenders have to stick with Jefferson and the other Minnesota playmakers for three-plus seconds, well, as LaFleur said, “you’re in trouble.”
