A thing is happening this NFL offseason that might’ve seemed impossible at this time last year. There’s a small, but astonishingly loud Sam Darnold hype train that made an unscheduled departure from the offseason take station. We’re not here to derail it, but slowing it down substantially is a must.
Let’s first figure out first why this take has bubbled to the surface. It isn’t a particularly complicated puzzle. Darnold is a former No. 3 overall pick who just turned 26-years old. He is immensely talented and now joining head coach Kyle Shanahan who is known for elevating the play of previously bad-to-mediocre quarterbacks. The idea carried on the hype train is that Darnold under Shanahan’s watch will become the player the Jets were hoping they’d get when they selected Darnold out of USC in the 2018 draft.
Okay, that all tracks and makes logical sense. The 49ers will undoubtedly be the best team Darnold has ever played on with an infrastructure that will provide more stability than he’s ever had. It stands to reason by default that he should be the best version of himself in 2023. San Francisco followed this logic to offer Darnold a one-year deal worth up to $4.5 million with playing time and performance incentives.
This is all normal and fine analysis of the player. And then there’s stuff like this from NFL Media’s Adam Schein, who has Darnold as a dark horse MVP candidate:
I know we’re hearing a lot of good news around Brock Purdy’s rehab process, and that’s great. But the guy underwent elbow surgery on his throwing arm a few months ago, so until I see it, I have trouble just accepting that everything is hunky-dory and the former seventh-round selection will pick up right where he left off last January.
With Darnold in the starting lineup, I firmly believe Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers can win 11-to-13 games and be bona fide Super Bowl contenders. I touched on this a couple weeks ago, and I’m not kidding. So let’s ride!
Schein is the same person who picked the 49ers to win the Super Bowl because of Darnold. He’s not the only one either. Former NFL head coach and 49ers offensive coordinator Mike Martz said the same thing.
What are we doing here?
This is not to say that the 49ers couldn’t have any success with Darnold, but this is an insane expectation for the leap he’d make as a player in San Francisco.
Darnold has 55 starts in 56 NFL games. He’s completing 59.7 percent of his throws, has a 3.5 percent touchdown rate, a 3.1 percent interception rate, and he averages fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt. He’s sporting a 78.2 passer rating for his career. Also this.
Again, situation has a lot to do with some of his struggles, and his numbers would surely tick up from his career marks if he winds up starting games for the 49ers.
Even last year with Carolina he played the best football of his career which amounted to a 58.6 percent completion rate, 5.0 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 8.2 yards per attempt and a 92.6 rating. That’s a nice improvement, but to put him in the MVP conversation, or even the Super Bowl winning QB conversation without seeing him take a snap in San Francisco is premature.
Consider Jimmy Garoppolo’s best season with San Francisco. In 2019 he completed 69.1 percent of his throws with a 5.7 percent TD rate, 2.7 percent INT rate, 8.4 yards per attempt and racked up a 102.0 passer rating. Even if Darnold does have his best year as a pro and matches those marks, he’s not going to get into the MVP conversation.
All of this is underscored by the fact Brock Purdy is on track to return for the season opener and is going to have to have a lot go wrong to lose his starting spot. Darnold even getting on the field will require him to beat out Trey Lance, and then for Purdy to suffer some kind of setback or injury.
There’s obviously some internal belief in 49ers headquarters that Darnold can win games for them. They’ve used three-plus quarterbacks in four of Shanahan’s six seasons with the club. Having three players capable of winning, especially with the NFL’s new rule regarding emergency QBs, makes a lot of sense for San Francisco. Belief in Darnold isn’t crazy or even misguided.
The notion that he’s going to transform into an elite QB in the conversation with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and other MVP favorites is nuts. And before we decide he’s going to step in and win an NFC championship game or Super Bowl against one of those QBs, he needs to overcome hurdles on his own roster.
There are reasons for the Darnold hype train to function, but it needs to slow down significantly and ensure it won’t fall off the tracks before it picks up any real steam.
