Summary of the day
A poll published today showed Progressive Slovakia taking a very narrow lead over populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer. The new data put Progressive Slovakia at 18%, Smer at 17.7% and Hlas at 15%. But other polls from this month showed Smer with a narrow lead over the progressives.
Milan Nič, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Slovakia, said the race is still open, with some voters shifting their preferences.
Katarína Klingová, a senior research fellow at the Bratislava-based Globsec Policy Institute, said that the outcome of Saturday’s election is still “quite unpredictable” and that disinformation is affecting Slovak voters’ views.
Martin Hojsík, the vice president of Progressive Slovakia and a member of the European parliament, told the Guardian that it is “shocking from a European context” that Fico’s Smer sits with the Socialists and Democrats group.
Vladimíra Marcinková, a member of the Slovak parliament from the libertarian Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, told the Guardian that the country’s election campaign was missing “constructive dialogue.”
Catch up on the Guardian’s Slovakia coverage
Populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s ‘toxic’ campaign has exposed deep divisions and a victory could move Slovakia closer to Russia. Read Jason Burke’s report from Bratislava.
And check out this useful Q&A by Jon Henley on why Saturday’s election is unlikely to end political turbulence that has dogged the country since the murder of a journalist in 2018 but could have serious ramifications for Ukraine.
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Fico likely to moderate if in power, columnist says
Peter Tkačenko, a Slovak columnist, told the Guardian today that he believes a government led by Robert Fico would not dramatically alter the country’s foreign policy orientation.
Fico’s critics have raised concerns that, if elected, he would move Slovakia away from the EU and NATO mainstream and adopt more Russia-friendly foreign policy positions, especially when it comes to Ukraine.
“I know that there’s a lot of fear,” Tkačenko said. But, the columnist added, the populist politician’s rhetoric should be seen as “pre-election talk”.
Slovaks have already seen Fico in office before, he noted.
This time around, if he ends up forming a government, Fico will “keep his strong vocabulary” but also “will try to moderate his positions and to get something out of the negotiation, he will be able to find a compromise.”
Tkačenko also pointed out that Fico is unlikely to be able to form a government without Hlas, a party whose leadership holds more pro-European and pro-Western views.
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More reactions from readers in Slovakia
Andrej writes that “there was little to no mention of climate” in the campaign and that he wants to see the environment getting more attention.
Vlado says that if Robert Fico becomes prime minister “he will in a very short time run onto Orbán’s style of politics and will shout that the Russians are brothers … Despite the fact that the pensioners are labelled as Fico voters, I will certainly vote for a liberal-progressive party.”
Tomas, a Slovak living abroad, writes that “a lot of Slovaks are experiencing disillusionment following a very chaotic leadership” by the last two prime ministers and that “unfortunately” for the country “the fight against corruption and consolidation of the public [spending] have been reduced to a secondary topic.”
A British reader who has lived in Slovakia for the past decade writes that “opinion polls are completely meaningless.”
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Campaign lacking constructive discussion, MP says
Vladimíra Marcinková, a member of the Slovak parliament from the libertarian Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, told the Guardian that the country’s election campaign was missing “constructive dialogue.”
The campaign has been “vulgar” and “not a really serious conversation about the future of the country,” she said in a phone interview.
On issues such as migration and LGBTQ+ rights, some parties are “trying to scare people,” Marcinková said, adding that when it comes to migrant arrivals “we are talking about small numbers it’s still overshadowing anything else”.
The parliamentarian said the SaS party is “trying” to talk about economic growth – and Slovakia’s large debt – but said that it is unclear whether they would make it past the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.
A Smer-led government would “definitely mean that Ukraine will lose the strong ally that we are now,” and that Slovakia would be “getting farther from the western world,” she added.
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‘Feeling motivated’
The Progressive Slovakia leader, Michal Šimečka, reacted to the latest polling showing his party with a narrow lead over Robert Fico’s Smer.
Šimečka, a member of the European parliament, is calling on supporters to convince as many people as possible to come vote on Saturday, emphasising that every vote counts.
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Election 'unpredictable', analyst says, amid disinformation fears
Katarína Klingová, a senior research fellow at the Bratislava-based Globsec Policy Institute, told the Guardian today that the outcome of Saturday’s election is still “quite unpredictable” and that disinformation is affecting Slovak voters’ views.
The majority of Slovaks have “complete distrust” in political parties and government, Klingová said, pointing to the impact of the COVID pandemic, double-digit inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
There are over 280 websites and portals spreading disinformation in Slovakia, along more than 1700 Facebook pages and groups, according to Klingová.
And while many disinformation outlets are domestic in nature, some direct and indirect links to Russia are “visible,” she said.
A 2022 poll by GLOBSEC found that 51% of Slovaks agreed Russia was primarily responsible for invading Ukraine. A year later, that number was at merely 41%.
Why does this matter for Europe? “The reason why Europeans should pay attention is because we have several political leaders who are saying that if they would win the elections - if their party would be in the government – they will stop sending any kind of military help or weapons to Ukraine,” Klingová said, adding that “some of the representatives have openly declared that they’re against the NATO membership of Ukraine.”
A future Slovak government “could definitely undermine or hinder adoption of effective joint policies and measures at the EU and NATO level,” she warned.
And, Klingová added, when it comes to democratic norms Slovakia “might become a new Hungary.”
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Slovak progressives take narrow lead over populist Smer, new poll shows
A poll published today shows Progressive Slovakia taking a very narrow lead over Robert Fico’s Smer.
The new data puts Progressive Slovakia at 18%, Smer 17.7% and Hlas at 15%.
The polling was conducted by the AKO agency for between 20 September and 26 September for TV JOJ 24.
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More readers weigh in
Peter writes in from Bratislava: “It is going to be a great showdown in Slovakia on Saturday. It is hard to understand where the pro-Russian and pro-Orbán feelings among the population stem from, but it is very concerning and disappointing.”
“Especially older people and pensioners vote for the populist parties … So if these parties win, it is going to be very shameful for the country and its geopolitical position and could lead to isolation,” he wrote.
“That’s why it is now important to mobilise voters,” he added.
Send your thoughts: lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
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US to Fico: peace without demanding Russian withdrawal is appeasement
The American ambassador in Bratislava, Gautam Rana, said this week that he has “been very clear” with Robert Fico about the importance of continuing support for Ukraine.
In an interview with Peter Dlhopolec, the editor-in-chief of the Slovak Spectator, the American diplomat said: “Fico as prime minister took his role as a NATO ally seriously, and maintained a relationship with the EU.”
“Fico and I have had multiple engagements, and I’ve been very clear to him from the US perspective that, one, Ukraine is a national security issue for Slovakia as well as NATO, frankly, for Europe, which means it’s a national security interest for the United States.”
“I don’t think Slovaks want Russian soldiers on their border. I don’t think Slovaks want re-imposition of the Iron Curtain. I don’t think Slovaks want to fall under Russian tyranny again.”
“And so I’ve been very clear to Fico about this, that it’s important and imperative for Slovakia to continue supporting Ukraine.”
“And secondly, to call for peace without also demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine is appeasement. This is what happened in 1938 when Adolf Hitler was appeased and the Czechs and Slovaks suffered. I’ve said this to Fico directly.”
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'Shocking' that Smer sits with European socialists, progressive politician says
Martin Hojsík, the vice president of Progressive Slovakia and a member of the European parliament, told the Guardian that the failure of past governments to deliver on promises, combined with mishandling of the Covid crisis and massive misinformation on social media, have led to Robert Fico’s rise in the polls.
Progressive Slovakia is a member of the centrist Renew Europe group in the European parliament, while Fico’s Smer sits with the Socialists and Democrats group.
Hojsík said that what is “shocking from a European context” is that there is a “Slovak member party of the Socialists and Democrats group, openly lining themselves up with Putin, rejecting military support for Ukraine, attacking [the] LGBTI community, so essentially going against the core values of their own political family in Europe”.
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Slovakia’s Saturday election is unlikely to end the political turbulence that has dogged the country since the murder of a journalist in 2018, but it could have serious ramifications for Ukraine.
Check out this explainer on the upcoming vote.
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Readers weigh in
Juraj writes from Bratislava: “This feels like the most important election for us in more than 20 years. I’ve cancelled a vacation to stay at home and vote.”
“I don’t remember the country being as polarised before as it is right now. I live in Bratislava and will be voting for Progressive Slovakia. To make it short mostly because I don’t want Slovakia to become like Hungary under Orbán,” he said.
Juraj also describes deep divisions around him. “Pretty much all the people around me will be voting the same, but some of my friends have told me the elections are creating issues in their families. A lot of people in Slovakia, mostly older ones, have been consuming Russian propaganda for years and will be voting for Fico’s Smer or the far right.”
“I’m trying to be optimistic but I’m a bit sceptical about the result. We’ll find out on Saturday,” he writes.
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Slovak election race still ‘open’, analyst says
While populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer is narrowly leading in the polls, various outcomes are still possible for Slovakia’s next government.
Milan Nič, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on Slovakia, told the Guardian this morning that while nationalist and isolationist voters are decided, others – including even some conservative Catholics – are shifting their preferences.
Some centre-right urban voters – faced with small parties that risk failing to garner sufficient votes to enter parliament – are flocking to the Progressive Slovakia party, the expert said.
The landscape has shifted compared to last week, according to Nič, who said that Fico appears nervous.
“Now I think a more likely scenario is a hung parliament, where you cannot form a government,” Nič said, underscoring that smaller parties will likely determine the ultimate shape of a future coalition. “It will be difficult negotiations,” he said, adding that at this stage he can imagine a scenario where Progressive Slovakia comes ahead of Smer.
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‘A huge storm’: polarised Slovakia on a knife edge ahead of elections
When Valeria Schulczová launched the new programme of Bratislava’s Hviezdoslav theatre she did not anticipate any great controversy. As director, she had chosen a series of provocative, but not outrageous, productions for the coming season. But Schulczová had reckoned without the febrile politics and deep polarisation of her country before parliamentary elections on 30 September.
The main image advertising the new season suggested a stained glass window, a reference to the Stalinist-era decorations of the theatre, with young people marching below Ukrainian, anti-fascist and rainbow flags.
Within days, the inboxes of Schulczová and her staff were flooded with threats of rape and decapitation. An online petition demanding her dismissal was signed by thousands. An MP called her a “barbarian”. Outside the theatre, police intervened as rightwing protesters organised by a biker gang linked to extremist pro-Russian groups scuffled with opponents.
“The main message of our image was just to show very liberal young people today in Bratislava, happy and content under these flags but also somehow forgetful of the lessons of the past about authoritarianism and dictatorship,” Schulczová, 48, said. “If there had been no elections, no one would have noticed. But they did and made a huge storm.”
Read the full story here.
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More polling shows Smer with narrow lead
A poll published this morning puts Robert Fico’s Smer at 20.6% followed closely by Progressive Slovakia at 19.8%.
The poll, conducted by the Ipsos agency for Denník N, put Hlas at 11.9%.
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Candidates in Slovakia’s election appeared in a televised debate yesterday – and had very different assessments of how it went.
Smer’s Robert Fico – a former prime minister whose party is narrowly leading in the polls – referred to Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka as mere continuation of chaos and instability.
Šimečka, a 39-year-old vice-president of the European parliament, tried to underline his relatively newcomer status in Slovak politics.
In a Facebook post, Šimečka argued that the debate showed his party’s rivals were nervous because Progressive Slovakia wants to change Slovakia’s politics and has a real chance of winning.
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Populist party leading in Slovakia, poll shows
Former Slovak prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer party has a narrow lead ahead of an election on Saturday, according to a poll published late on Tuesday.
The populist Smer party stands at 18%, with the liberal Progressive Slovakia coming second at 16.6%.
Hlas, a possible kingmaker formed by politicians who had left Fico’s Smer, is at 13.7%.
A host of other parties are polling at below 10%. The far-right Republika is at 7.7%.
Polling was conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza.
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Opening summary
Good morning and welcome back to the Europe live blog.
Slovaks go to the polls on Saturday, and today we will be delving into the country’s election campaign – and why it has garnered so much international attention.
All eyes are on Robert Fico, a controversial populist former prime minister whose Smer party is leading in the polls.
Fico has criticised western sanctions against Russia and said Slovakia should not provide Ukraine with more weapons. Plus, rights advocates have raised concerns that the former leader is inciting hate against the LGBTQ+ community.
Fico’s critics say they fear that if he returns to power, he would undermine democratic institutions and shift Slovakia’s foreign policy. Smer, however, has rejected these concerns as unfounded.
Are you voting in Saturday’s election in Slovakia? We want to hear from you. Send comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
