Peace and security in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is still a distant prospect despite a ceasefire that took effect Sunday between M23 rebels and government forces.
Two and a half years of fierce fighting between factions has displaced an estimated 5.7 million people across the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri.
Brokered by Angola, the 4 August ceasefire came as a two-week humanitarian truce between M23 and Congolese forces in North Kivu expired the night before.
It was not specified which parties had agreed to the deal, nor how long it would last.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said he hoped the move would help to bring about a “de-escalation of tensions between the DRC and Rwanda”, and to enable the safe return of internally displaced people.
France, Belgium, the European Union and the United States also welcomed the news.
But given previous truces have never lasted more than a few weeks, observers say clashes are likely to continue.
Locals fear that negotiated pauses in fighting are offering armed factions the chance to regroup.
“Agreements are often violated by the parties to the conflict because ... the M23 and Rwandan army are continuing to strengthen their positions,” Georges Katsongo, president of a civil society group in North Kivu’s Lubero region, told French news agency AFP.
Historical rivalries
The violence in North Kivu is being driven by complex rivalries along ethnic, religious and political lines – with neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda accused of backing rebel groups to expand their influence and gain access to valuable resources in the region.
Historical animosities dating back to the Rwandan genocide and earlier regional disputes continues to fuel mutual distrust.
About six million people have been killed by fighting in the region since 1996, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in global history.
A report commissioned by the UN Security Council found that between 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers were fighting alongside the M23 rebels in North Kivu, with Kigali exercising “de facto” control over the group's operations.
Until the end of 2023, Rwandan authorities had denied their troops were supporting the mainly Tutsi M23, but since then Kigali has stopped commenting directly on such accusations.
Another prominent rebel group, the ADF or Allied Democratic Forces, is affiliated with the Islamic State. More than a hundred other rebel factions, vying for competing interests, operate in the region.
Conflagration fears
Analysts warn that failure to adequately address the conflict may cause massive instability in central and East Africa that could pave the way for Chinese or Russian involvement and further expansion of Islamist terrorists.
The UN has warned of alarming levels of violence against civilians, and particularly against women and girls.
"We are witnessing in the DRC one of the most severe, complex and neglected humanitarian crises of our times," Bintou Keita, head of the UN Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the DRC (Monusco), told the Security Council last month.
“The rapidly escalating M23 crisis carries the very real risk of provoking a wider regional conflict.”
(with newswires)
