Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks

While there are many definitions of “sleeper”, this analysis considers a sleeper as someone drafted as a backup that becomes a fantasy starter. The first 12 quarterbacks taken are already starters, so the green shaded players are picks that offer the best value in that spot and could be considered earlier. Those in red are being drafted too high for their expected outlook.

See also:
Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Picks: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends

Below is ordered in their average draft position from recent drafts. This won’t be exactly like your draft, but it tends to be close enough to rely on.

Average Draft order – Value Picks

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Starter Values
1	BUF	Josh Allen	The first three QBs are a matter of preference and all are about equally as likely to end up as the No. 1 fantasy QB this year.
2	KC	Patrick Mahomes	Will throw more and run less than the other two.
3	PHI	Jalen Hurts	Best runner and still improving as a passer.
4	CIN	Joe Burrow	Burrow was the No. 4 fantasy QB last year and could repeat, but injured his calf and may miss the preseason. He’s dropped a little, could be just as good, but why take any unnecessary risks with solid options on either side?
5	BAL	Lamar Jackson	Hasn’t been better than the No. 10 fantasy QB in the last three years, but always delivers thanks to his rushing and new OC Todd Monken is a solid reason for optimism in the passing game.
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	He ends up between the No. 3 and No. 8 fantasy QB every year. Solid pick but lack of rushing keeps him outside of the Top-4.
7	CHI	Justin Fields	Ended an otherwise miserable 2022 Chicago season as the No. 10 fantasy QB thanks to all that rushing. Has better receivers now and a very accommodating passing schedule. Worth this slot.
8	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	The 1.01 of 2020 was already No. 7 fantasy QB last year. Has as much upside as   any other QB and maybe more talent. Usually a 6th or 7th round pick that could end up in the Top-5. Calvin Ridley completes his ensemble.
9	CLE	Deshaun Watson	Was a very relaxed Top-5 QB through 2020 but still looking to return to previous   success. Upgrade at WR and his first full season should help and this “low end” fantasy starter price makes the risk worthwhile.
10	DAL	Dak Prescott	Top-10 every other year but just No. 18 in 2022 due to injury. Lost his OC Kellen Moore but gained Brandin Cooks. Lack of rushing since the 2020 ankle injury hurts fantasy stock and old-school play calling by HC Mike McCarthy likely more conservative.
11	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	When healthy and on the field, always worth at least this. But has never missed fewer than four games in his three seasons and I have enough headaches to   deal with during the season.
12	NYG	Daniel Jones	Three years of being no better than the No. 20 fantasy QB, then last year sudden ran for 708 yards and 7 TDs to end as the No. 12 fantasy QB. Still only averaged 200 passing yards per game with only 15 pass TDs. Expect opponents to watch the run and hopes he passes this year.

 

Sleepers and Overvalued Players

ADP	Tm	Quarterback	Depth Considerations
13	MIN	Kirk Cousins	In the last 8 years, Cousins only once failed to be at least the No. 11 fantasy QB and was Top-6 last year. They added 1.23 pick Jordan Addison and get a full year of T.J. Hockenson. Yeah, he’s worth scooping up as a starting QB.
14	DET	Jared Goff	Should be at least this good and likely better. Was No. 9 last year and adds Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams to a light schedule behind a great O-line. Hendon Hooker may be a factor in 2024, but not this   year.
15	SEA	Geno Smith	The earth’s rotation was thrown off a little last year from everyone running to their waiver wire to grab Geno Smith, the journeyman turned No. 5 fantasy QB.  The only reason he’s this low after also adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba-Smith is because we’re still trying to wrap our heads around what happened last year.
16	NYJ	Aaron Rodgers	He’s always been a lock for Top-12 and was Top-3 eight times in his long career. Changes teams but not receivers, adds Garrett Wilson. But loses that great GB O-line and he doesn’t run much in his old age. Still a solid QB2 with a  chance for QB1 stats at least some of the time.
17	IND	Anthony Richardson	Rookie QBs don’t normally end this high, but this spot is a play for rushing yards more than receiving yards. He only started one year at Florida, only threw for 2,549 yards and 17 TDs but ran for 654 and 9 TDs. He’s very raw and the IND O-line ain’t what it used to be.
18	DEN	Russell Wilson	Was injured in 2021 and had his first flop. Went to DEN and had minor injury issues as well but flopped beyond all expectations and besmirched what had been a great reputation. New coaches, same receivers, and a lighter schedule should prompt a bounce back.
19	NO	Derek Carr	Spent the last nine years between the No. 12 and No. 20 fantasy QB. Mr. fantasy backup will likely remain there, but he’s a 4,000-yard passer on a team with potential. He’s still a backup, but should be one of the first ones taken. Great schedule this year.
20	LAR	Matthew Stafford	Nothing like pairing his worst and best NFL seasons back-to-back while throwing in a scary neck problem. Stafford drove in a weekly demolition derby without a helmet last year, so 2023 has to be better. Expect that O-line isn’t and Cooper Kupp is a lock to be the main read on every play.
21	GB	Jordan Love	Flip a coin. The only thing we know for sure about Jordan Love is that he is not Aaron Rodgers. He enters his third year with just 50 completions and 13 runs for 26 yards. This deeply, why not?
22	ARI	Kyler Murray	Any player can get hurt on any play. I never take anyone who is already hurt to start (or not) the season. ARI looks like a rebuilding train wreck this season.
23	PIT	Kenny Pickett	Don’t forget that Pickett was the top-drafted QB in 2022 and he has some weapons in Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson. Deserves a spot on a fantasy roster.
24	CAR	Bryce Young	The top-drafted QB in 2023 inherits a rebuilding CAR squad with new coaches and players all over the roster. He’s very likely to struggle in Year 1 but needs to be on a roster just in case he realizes that opponents are made of players that he beat in college.

Best of the Rest

Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The second quarterback drafted in 2022  only played in four games as a rookie, but gets the start this year behind a solid O-line and with enough weapons that he can take advantage of the easiest passing schedule in the NFL. Falcons will look to run, but Ridder is one to watch.

Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) – Sure – he’s going to eventually going to get injured because he is Jimmy Garoppolo. But pairing with Davante Adams in a familiar Josh McDaniels offense and facing the No. 2 easiest passing schedule should yield nice results while he is healthy.