The 2023 season is underway, and Week 1 is the most exciting week of the year for three reasons:
- The true nature of injuries finally have to be disclosed.
- There will be many player surprises that sends everyone scrambling to their league waiver wire. Who was to know that Player X would blow up like that? This is “go figure” week.
- Expectations are reset based on Week 1, which is often wrong because Week 1 is different than the rest and not a great barometer of anything.
So we’ll see some exciting things, score many fantasy points, and then need a reminder not to buy into anything too much. Consider Week 1 of 2022 – here are the players that scored two touchdowns to reward fantasy owners – Kareem Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dontrell Hilliard, O.J. Howard, Michael Thomas, Devin Duvernay, and Robbie Chosen Anderson. The third-best quarterback was Carson Wentz, with four touchdowns and 313 yards.
Still, we get to see rookies, veterans who changed teams, new offensive schemes, and a ton of big and small changes that will uniquely mark this season.
This weekly article will look at six players/situations worth tracking because fantasy opportunities happen weekly. For the opener, I am very interested in several backfields.
- J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – Adding new OC Todd Monken should prove a great move, and it will change the offense. The backfield has long been a committee, and that may change. The Ravens ranked No. 29 in passes thrown to running backs, and that is going to change. Throw in one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and this offense will change and benefit Dobbins in the process. Only Kenyan Drake carried more than 17 times in any game last year. The backfield breakdown should be noted since it will spell just what changes to expect from the new offense.
- Tony Pollard (DAL) – No arguing that Pollard was more effective than Ezekiel Elliott (and at a much lower price). Now that he steps into the primary role, what happens? Pollard has never rushed more than 193 times in a season in the NFL and never more than 78 times in college. Dallas wants a more conservative offense and ran an NFL-high 506 times last year. Who else runs the ball? Rico Dowdle, a 25-year-old with seven career carries? The Diminutive Deuce Vaughn? Ronald Jones is on suspension for two games and made the team but he hasn’t been a factor anywhere for a couple of years. How heavy of a load will Pollard be given? There are a lot of fantasy points in this backfield, somewhere, and it’ll be worth tracking in case Pollard cannot handle more than 200 carries for the first time ever. He was a receiver in high school and a “WR/RB” in college.
- Rachaad White (TB) – Leonard Fournette is gone, apparently from everyone’s whiteboard, and White takes the RB1 job. This new offense wants to run more and better. The Bucs ranked No. 2 in completions to running backs (133), but that is likely to drop with OC Dave Canales coming from Seattle, where they only ranked No. 25 (69). Sean Tucker is getting hype, yet the team has thrown their confidence behind White. The O-line is no advantage, but they want to run more often. Chase Edmonds will likely take most of the passes, so any sharing between White and Tucker diminishes what either could do alone. If White gets a primary load like Fournette’s 262 touches last year, he’ll surprise. But will he last?
- Khalil Herbert (CHI) – David Montgomery left, and the Bears added D’Onta Foreman who was fresh from his only season of note. The Bears also drafted Roschon Johnson with their fourth-round pick. This offense threw the least passes to their backfield (61), so the rushing will contribute most of their fantasy value. The Bears have a better O-line, but three players may be involved. We want to see Herbert succeed and earn a big chunk of carries, or this may be a marginal producer for fantasy points.
- Alexander Mattison (MIN) – Yet another fifth-year back that never ran more than 134 times in a season and yet is promoted to RB1 with the departure of Dalvin Cook. Curious too that he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the last two seasons. The fourth-round pick Ty Chandler has to be involved, but he hasn’t impressed. If this unit doesn’t run well – and nothing says that it will – they may be turning to a free agent or even a trade at some point.
- Raheem Mostert (MIA) – The Dolphins didn’t bite on Jonathan Taylor, but they looked, and that door may not be completely closed. The fantasy world wants to see Devon Achane become a factor, and the 5-9, 188-pounder is a blazer with 4.32 40-time speed. So many questions are here – can Mostert possibly stay healthy for two straight seasons? Can Achane earn enough playing time that the Fins don’t start knocking on free-agent doors? It is an offense with some firepower and plenty of fantasy points.
And about last night…
Lions 21, Chiefs 20
Well, this included about half of the scoring we wanted to see. The Lions didn’t do anything special other than lose one fumble that ended a scoring drive. The take away is that David Montgomery (21-74, TD) is the new Jamaal Williams while Jahmyr Gibbs was a disappointment with just six runs for 42 yards (6.0 YPC) and two catches for 18 yards. Seems like a lot of untapped potential with just eight touches. Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-71, TD) and Josh Reynolds (4-80) led the team but Sam LaPorta (5-39) was surprisingly involved (and effective) for a rookie tight end debut. Jared Goff only threw for one score and 253 yards.
Life without Travis Kelce does not look pretty. At least for this week. Patrick Mahomes threw for 226 yards and two scores, including a pick-six that made a huge difference in the game. He threw to 12 receivers and the rookie Rashee Rice (3-29, TD) was impressive in his debut. But Sky Moore failed to catch any of his three passes and Kadarius Toney (1-1) had three drops, one of which could have produced a first down and final field goal attempt.
But, this was the first surprise with far less offense than expected. More happen on Sunday and in the end – it may not matter. Week 1 is a different beast than the rest.
