The season is just about two-thirds done on the fantasy calendar, and playoffs are starting to come into view in the distance. Some large contests start in Week 14, and most leagues happen in Weeks 16 and 17, so there is still time to move up the standings. But the waiver in your league is likely bare outside of some bonehead dropping a fantasy starter.
Defenses and kickers still offer worthwhile finds, but only injury will uncover a new starter. The rest of the way is more about making optimal starting decisions and starting to look toward matchups your players will have in your playoffs.
Injuries continue to degrade all positions, and quarterbacks seem to have an unusual number of injuries. Ten have missed at least one game, and that is eleven if Joe Burrow misses time with the wrist injury he suffered last night. That’s one in three quarterbacks that have been injured, and there are eight more games in the season.
The topic for this week is NFL backfields and how they continue to change. After ten games, some teams have soured on their Week 1 starter and others just see more from the No. 2 guy. Here are my Top-6 backfields that are – or may be – in transition for the next few weeks and could heighten the fantasy prospects for one back while decreasing the other.
- Tony Pollard / Rico Dowdle (DAL) – The Cowboys rushing offense apparently left with Ezekiel Elliott. What was once a strength is now a weakness. Tony Pollard turned in 1,007 yards on 193 carries (5.2 YPC) last year under a different coach and as the No. 2 back. He’s gaining 3.9 yards per carry, looking like a No. 2 miscast as a No. 1 back. Last week, the Cowboys clobbered the Giants 49-17, and Pollard only had 15 runs for 55 yards. Rico Dowdle had a career-best 79 yards and a score on 12 rushes. Chances are high that neither back is going to shine, but at least Dowdle looks likely to get more work at the expense of Pollard. It was very telling when Pollard couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on a fourth down. Dowdle later scored from the 1-yard line on a first down.
- D’Onta Foreman / Khalil Herbert (CHI) – Herbert has been on injured reserve since Oct. 13 with an ankle injury, but he’s entered the 21-day window to be activated and just had a full practice last week. Herbert averaged 5.7 YPC last year and 5.3 YPC through Week 5. But D’Onta Foreman has been very effective and handled 20 carries the last two weeks. At this point, it is most likely to see Foreman remain the primary but cede touches to Herbert and Roschon Johnson. The backfield cannot be truly evaluated until Herbert proves 100% healthy and is no longer being eased back in. The next two weeks should set the stage for expectations for after the Week 13 bye.
- De’Von Achane / Raheem Mostert (MIA) – All eyes are on the Miami backfield. Achane is expected to return and add to his ridiculous 12.1 YPC. But Raheem Mostert is there and still healthy, amazingly enough. After his breakout in Week 3, Achane and Mostert split carries 11:10 and 8:7. They faced the visiting Broncos and Giants and did much less at the Bills. More soft matchups await for the next month and we’ll see how long Achane needs to be active and at full strength endurance. Miami will split their workload and doesn’t like a workhorse. Facing the Raiders this week is another soft matchup, so it should be productive. But the key will be the total amount of carries in this pass-first offense.
- Dameon Pierce / Devin Singletary (HOU) – It appears that Pierce is no lock to return this week from his ankle injury. And in his absence, Singletary ran for 150 yards and a score on 30 rushes (5.0 YPC). The Texans host the Cardinals and their No. 32 defense versus running backs, so Singletary should really shine again. But the Houston O-line is one of the worst, and Singletary only totaled 62 runs for 209 yards through Week 9 (3.4 YPC). In Week 9, he was alone versus the Bucs and only gained 26 yards on 13 rushes. The passing game is improved in Houston as well. The most that will happen is that these backs start to split 50:50 and negate what minimal fantasy value there was.
- Kyren Williams / Darrell Henderson (LAR) – Williams is expected to return in Week 12 when he is eligible to come off injured reserve where he landed with a high-ankle sprain. Henderson and Royce Freeman have filled in, and Henderson logged 18 rushes for 61 yards and a score versus the Steelers, while Freeman totaled 66 yards on 12 runs. Freeman scored in Dallas but that game went sideways early. Williams should return to his same role, and both Henderson and Freeman should take a step back to just relief work. HC Sean McVay is already talking about his excitement in getting Williams back. The backfield should look good this week versus the visiting Seahawks, who are weak versus the run, but whatever happens won’t dampen the switch back to Williams when he is active again.
- Jaylen Warren / Najee Harris (PIT) – Last year, the Steelers’ run game took off in the second half of the season, and it appears that it may be repeating. The offensive line is playing better and Jaylen Warren is tearing off as many longer runs as anyone lately. The duo started the year with Harris as the 3:1 lead, but they have morphed into a true committee now with their best game of the year in Week 10 when they split 31 carries for 183 yards and two touchdowns versus the Packers. The last few games were at home and the next two are at the Browns and Bengals. The remaining schedule is better than most, though, and for now, these two swap out regularly. That helps Warren and dings Harris.
About last night…
Bengals 20, Ravens 34
There were more points than most Thursday games, but it is the aftermath of that game that will be more important. Joe Burrow injured his throwing wrist and he’ll be examined on Friday. The outward signs suggested it was a serious enough injury that he could miss a game or more. Mark Andrews had his ankle rolled up on a tackle and left the game after two catches. He’s expected to be out for the rest of the season with a high-ankle sprain “plus more.” Losing Anderson puts a ding in the Ravens’ offense, but one that the rest of the receivers can try to compensate for. Losing Burrow for any time sinks the fantasy value of the entire Bengals’ offense and signals that the 5-5 Bengals likely face the reality that the postseason is out of reach.
The Bengals had enough trouble moving the ball with Burrow, and after he left, Jake Browning took over with minimal success. Tight end Tanner Hudson led the Bengals’ receivers with four catches for 49 yards – the second-best performance of his four-year career. But Tyler Boyd (3-22) and Ja’Marr Chase (2-12, TD) were little used, and Chase’s score was with one minute left in the already-decided game. Joe Mixon was the only Bengal that met expectations when he ran for 69 yards on 16 rushes and caught a team-high five passes for 31 yards and a touchdown. The 5-5 Bengals host the Steelers in Week 12.
Lamar Jackson turned in a standard performance. He ran for 54 yards and threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Nelson Agholor (1-37, TD) and Rashod Bateman (1-10, TD) caught those, while Odell Beckham (4-116) led all receivers before leaving with a shoulder injury. Zay Flowers (3-43) was quieter than expected. The win boost the Ravens to 8-3 still atop the AFC North and they head to Los Angeles to face the Chargers.
