Week 16 means most fantasy team owners are out of the playoffs. But the NFL is still on and there are notable changes coming down the road worth thinking about because players changing teams is where a significant amount of fantasy value lies – there’s no way to know just how a player will produce on a new team and the inclination is to undervalue them.
The 2023 draft class proved to be a disappointment. Bijan Robinson has not been the next generational running back, he hasn’t even been the primary back for his own team in some weeks. Jahmyr Gibbs is the No. 9 fantasy back so far, and has been marginally better than Robinson. De’Von Achane had a few monster games but has been mostly injured. Otherwise, not a lot so far from the class of 2023.
Let’s take a quick look at the pending free agents running backs when the NFL’s 2024 season starts on Wednesday, March 13 at 4 p.m. ET. Some will be signed by their own teams, but most likely head on to new teams. Here are my Top-6 running back free agents. A number of these players were top free agents last year. Many teams are not wanting to commit to any back for more than a year.
1.) Saquon Barkley (NYG, Age 27) – The Giants only signed him for last year, so the process starts all over. Barkley is the face of the franchise and the only reliably productive part of the offense, They’ll do what they can to re-sign him though it probably won’t be more than a two-year deal. Barkley had a great 2023 showing but is only the No. 17 running back this year having missed three games. The fantasy world would love to see him elsewhere, but he’s at least a 50/50 to resign. He’ll never win the Super Bowl there, but he does get to play in an offense designed around him.
2.) Josh Jacobs (LV, Age 26) – The NFL’s best running back in 2022 re-signed with the soon-to-implode Raiders and is only the current No. 14 running back. The Raiders will be going through a purge in the offseason when they hire a new head coach and start the rebuild. Jacobs is no lock to stay around for that. His production is up since Josh McDaniels was fired and he’ll attract attention. He can probably help a new team more than any other free agent running back, if they are willing to sign him to at least a two-year contract.
3.) Derrick Henry (TEN, Age 30) – The Titan’s star becomes a free agent right after what will be his worst season. He’s only averaging 3.8 yards per carry and if he breaks 1,000 rushing yards for the fifth time, it will be thanks to playing a 17-game season. Henry has defied limitations that faced other backs who had a similar workhorse role but he finally broke down in 2021, bounced back nicely, but now has a down year. He’ll end up elsewhere and could fit in nicely for another team looking for the Thunder to match with a Lightning. He’ll drop in fantasy drafts no matter what happens this year, but can still offer a valuable role.
4.) Tony Pollard (DAL, Age 27) – Maybe there is a difference between being the No. 2 guy behind a back that attracts all the attention (Ezekiel Elliott), and being the only running back that a defense focuses on. Pollard dropped to only 4.1 yards per carry and the Cowboys’ backfield has taken a big step backward. Pollard signed a $10 million contract for this year and is the current No. 12 fantasy running back. He hasn’t had the look of a No. 1 running back and the Cowboys won’t be willing to pay as much for him now that his impact fell once he became the primary back. At best, Pollard remains in Dallas and they bring in another back to beef up the backfield.
5.) Austin Ekeler (LAC, Age 29) – Yet another back from 2023 who held out for a contract extension and was a big part of the Great RB Revolt of last summer that didn’t change anything. His problem is that he was a nightmare for defenses in 2021 and 2022, but his performance and usage has dropped off significantly in 2023. His current 3.6 yard average is a career-lowest by far, but in fairness the team around him has also been a disappointment. He still has value and can fit into any backfield, but his age and 2023 performance will work against him.
6.) Devin Singletary (BUF, Age 26) – He left the Bills to become the backup for Dameon Pierce in Houston. Singletary only signed a one-year contract worth $2.75 million and has taken over as the primary back since mid-season. He’s rushed for over 100 yards three times. He may end up re-signing with the Texans but he could go elsewhere by ending on a high note. He still has plenty in the tank and was never over-used in Buffalo in their pass-happy offense.
Other 2023 free agent running backs: Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Gus Edwards, Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, D’Onta Foreman.
About Last Night…
New Orleans 22, Los Angeles Rams 30
The Saints scored two touchdowns in the final six minutes to make this look closer than it was. The Rams already led 27-7 entering the fourth quarter and their offense gashed the Saints with both the pass and run. David Carr threw 40 passes out of need, and the Saints run game was nearly non-existent.
Derek Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns between Rashid Shaheed (5-70, TD), Juwan Johnson (4-48, TD), and A.T. Perry (1-35, TD). Chris Olave (9-123) was the star though he failed to score. Alvin Kamara rushed for only 19 yards on nine carries but added five catches for 16 yards.
Matt Stafford threw for 328 yards and two scores between Puka Nacua (9-164, TD) and Demarcus Robinson (6-82, TD). Cooper Kupp led the offense with 12 targets but ended with only six receptions for 52 yards. Kyren Williams rumbled for 104 yards and a score on his 22 runs, Almost anything the Rams tried worked, though they have to settled for three field goals or the score would have been very lopsided.
