Each year throughout the last decade, an average of 5.8 new teams have made the playoffs. Last year, we had six, the most surprising among them (though not in hindsight) was the Seahawks, who were coming off a fourth-place, 7–10 season and had traded franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to enter training camp with a competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock under center. They serve as a reminder that almost anything is possible in the NFL. Parity is high, and, minus the small handful of teams whose quarterbacks are far above the capabilities of modern athletic performance and mental processing, most clubs have some semblance of a chance so long as they can find some period of cohesion and buy-in.
So, who are those 5.8 teams this year? Let’s round it up to six (the 2022 Colts are the only team I’ve seen in recent memory that I’d describe as 0.8 of a football team, but we can also round up to account for the numbers possibly changing over time in a league now with 14 playoff teams) and take a crack. It’s high time we get a chance to avenge last year’s absolutely embarrassing showing in this exercise, in which we projected *shivers* the Saints, Ravens, Broncos, Colts, Lions and Chargers as new playoff entrants.
Let’s put aside the Lions for now, given that they finished last season above .500, in second place, and are viewed as an ascending team most pundits will have in the playoffs this year. This list will stick to teams that finished in the bottom half of their divisions in 2022, with one AFC South–related exception.
