In the 2019 general election, Sinn Féin won seven seats in Westminster, one fewer than its main unionist rivals, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). However, such is the disarray in unionist politics at the moment that Sinn Féin may only need to hold these seven seats to emerge as the largest Northern Irish party in Westminster.
A result of this kind would amount to an electoral hat-trick. Sinn Féin would be the largest party in the UK Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland’s local government. This will be portrayed as a symbolic and psychological boost for Irish Republicanism, providing further momentum for a border poll some time in the 2030s.
Westminster’s first-past-the-post voting system means that general elections regularly become ethnic headcounts between nationalism and unionism in Northern Ireland. This can lead parties to stand down in some constituencies to aid candidates who have a better chance of defeating their main ethnic and political rivals.
