The 2023 NFL draft is almost upon us, which excites both the real and fantasy fan bases across the globe. Things have changed over the years though, especially at the running back position. In times past, NFL teams would focus on drafting backfield superstars in the first round. Nowadays, however, backs are less of an asset. In fact, just 10 have been picked in Round 1 of the last seven drafts.
The question for our purposes is this: How have the shrinking number of prominently drafted running backs fared in terms of fantasy production on an historical basis?
Well, I jumped in the fantasy DeLorean, got that sucker up to 88 miles per hour and looked at exactly that. Why? Because by looking at the past, we can find trends that can help us in the future. Since this focuses on just first-year players and their stats alone, you won’t see Travis Etienne, who missed his rookie campaign.
So, without further ado, here’s what I found that can make you a better drafter.
In the last 23 years, 51 running backs have been selected in Round 1. Four (8%) have finished with more than 300 fantasy points, nine (18%) have scored over 250 points and 15 (29%) posted more than 200 points (all in terms of PPR formats).
Digging a little deeper, we find that among the top 15 first-round rookie running back seasons, 10 of them were from players selected in the top 10 in their respective drafts. That’s a very lofty 67%. The other five runners were picked between No. 24 overall (Chris Johnson in 2008 and Najee Harris in 2021) and No. 31 overall (Doug Martin in 2012).
Erich Schlegel/USA Today Sports
Now, let’s look at things on a points-per-game basis.
Saquon Barkley leads all first-year runners in our research with an average of 24.1 points per game. He’s one of two backs (Ezekiel Elliott in 2016) to average over 20 points. Martin was close at 19.5 in his rookie campaign, while three others (Adrian Peterson in 2007, Leonard Fournette in 2017 and Harris) averaged more than 17. In all, 12 of 51 first-round backs have averaged more than 14.9 PPR points per game.
Again, keep in mind that’s 12 backs in the last 23 years.
- SEE ALSO: Fantasy Success for First-Round QBs
I used 14.9 points per game as a baseline because that’s how much a runner would have had to average last season to finish in the top 12 (or be considered a No. 1 fantasy runner in a 12-team league). Five other backs were close, averaging more than 14.1 points. That would have made them a high-end RB2 in 2022.
What’s most interesting about the 17 first-round backs who have averaged 14.1 or more points as rookies is that just three have come in the last five years. What’s more, just one (Harris) has occurred in the last two. That of course jives with the decline in players at the position who have been picked in the first round.
Among the seven runners who have been chosen in the first round in the last five years, only Harris and Barkley scored more than 300 points. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020) posted 176 points and the two others (Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny, both in 2018) failed to score more than 139.1 points. Penny, who missed two games as a rookie, scored a mere 70.4 points and averaged five per game.
That leads us to yet another trend.
As I mentioned in my recent article about rookie backs, not just those who are first rounders, I found that being a Round 1 selection doesn’t guarantee success. While Barkley and Zeke, the two highest-scoring rookie backs in the last 23 years, were first-rounders, six of the next eight players in the top 10 were not. Those backs ranged from Round 2 (Clinton Portis, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew) to Round 6 (Mike Anderson). Nine of the top 10 went in the top three rounds, though.
Looking ahead to this year’s draft, the trend of the forgotten runner is likely to be the same. Most draft experts project just one back, Texas’ Bijan Robinson, to be a Day 1 selection. There’s an outside chance that Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs could also be picked, but he’s more widely considered to be a second-round pick on Day 2.
Robinson averaged 23.1 touches and caught 19 passes in his final collegiate year, during which time he rushed for 19 touchdowns. He’s one of the most NFL-ready backs to come out of college since Barkley, and he has the skills and tools to make an instant impact even if he’s not a top-10 pick. In fact, Robinson could join the likes of Barkley and Elliott, who had 300-plus points as first-round rookie backs.
