I have been involved, full-time, in the commodity and financial markets for over 40 years. I’ve seen a lot of remarkable and highly unexpected price action in that time. The most remarkable and unexpected market price action has to be Nymex crude oil futures dropping to minus $40.32 a barrel in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Another shocker was lumber futures prices spiking to a record high in May 2021 — also due to high demand during the pandemic. Cocoa futures come to mind, too. For 40 years the cocoa market traded in a range of $700 to $3,800 a ton — until its stratospheric spike to $12,931 in December 2024. Pork belly futures (now de-listed), orange juice futures, and natural gas futures also had monstrous rallies to record high prices that beforehand seemed unfathomable.
Silver’s (SIH26) recent price explosion to the upside falls into my top five most remarkable and unexpected market developments in my long career in commodities. In August 2025, silver futures were trading at $36 an ounce. By November, the $50 handle was achieved, and prices reached a record high. Last fall I wrote that silver being able to hold above $50 for a couple weeks would be key for the metal’s longer-term price trajectory. I had my doubts that such could occur, and in fact, silver futures prices fell to a low of $45.51 in late October (after hitting a record high of $53.765 in mid-October). Indeed, in late October it looked like the silver bulls had run out of gas after what was even then an extraordinary bull run.
