Want to know who is going to win Super Bowl LVIII?
Just look at the coach and quarterback of every team.
Historically speaking, it’s almost impossible to win the Super Bowl without an elite coach, an elite quarterback and in many cases, both. In the 57 years of the Super Bowl era, 41 championships have been won with signal-callers either already enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, or men not yet eligible but certain to get there. Of those same 57 titles, a coach of said quality has stood on the sideline for 37 of them.
Most importantly, only nine teams have ever won the Super Bowl without either (counting the 1985 Bears since Mike Ditka is in as a player and not as a coach).
That list of nine includes the 2007 and ’11 Giants, who had Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. There’s a good chance one or both get gold jackets, but it can’t be called a certainty. Then there’s the Rams’ Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, and the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll and Broncos’ Russell Wilson, who will be candidates but aren’t sure things.
Bottom line: Unless you’re trotting out at least one Hall of Famer at those spots, good luck.
Going into the season, we ranked each quarterback and coach to see which teams had the best pairings. Here’s what we found.
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports (Hurts); Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports (Allen); Kelley L Cox/USA TODAY Sports (Purdy); Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports (Mahomes)
Scoring system: Like golf, lower scores are better. Next to the team name is the total score in parentheses, while underneath is the quarterback and coach ranking in the same format.
If two teams had a tie score, the tie was broken by who has the highest-ranked quarterback.
32. Arizona Cardinals (64)
- QB: Colt McCoy (32)
- HC: Jonathan Gannon (32)
Sorry, Cardinals fans. Without Kyler Murray for what could be a majority of the season, there’s no way to rank Arizona as better than last. As for Gannon, he’s a rookie coach who struggled against better quarterbacks throughout his tenure as the Eagles’ defensive coordinator. And in Philadelphia, Gannon had incredible talent. Not the case in Arizona.
31. Houston Texans (60)
- QB: C.J. Stroud (29)
- HC: DeMeco Ryans (31)
Some Texans fans may feel this is unfair, but how do you judge a first-time coach and a rookie quarterback? Houston could surprise or be irrelevant by Halloween as Stroud and Ryans attempt to carve out a bright future. Ryans will have to do the work early, though, as Stroud is without any legitimate weapons on the outside.
30. Indianapolis Colts (57)
- QB: Anthony Richardson (27)
- HC: Shane Steichen (30)
This tandem could be really fun, even if it doesn’t lead to immediate success in the win column. Steichen coordinated a fantastic offense in Philadelphia, helping mold quarterback Jalen Hurts into an All-Pro. He’ll attempt to do the same with Richardson, who is an incredible talent at 244 pounds with a huge arm. The question is accuracy, with the first-round pick never cracking 56%in high school or college.
29. Atlanta Falcons (54)
- QB: Desmond Ridder (31)
- HC: Arthur Smith (23)
Few teams are getting more hype than the Falcons as a perennial also-ran with playoff aspirations. Smith is much of that reason, a smart offensive coach who has playmakers on offense in receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The question is whether Ridder can do much with them. Based on four starts last season, that’s a concern.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (53)
- QB: Baker Mayfield (26)
- HC: Todd Bowles (27)
The good news? The NFC South stinks. The bad news? So does this combination. Mayfield is now on his fourth team in three years, while Bowles is almost certainly coaching for his job. The Buccaneers are hoping new coordinator Dave Canales can revive the offense, but Mayfield and backup Kyle Trask have low ceilings.
27. Washington Commanders (52)
- QB: Sam Howell (30)
- HC: Ron Rivera (22)
Rivera went to a Super Bowl with the Panthers in 2015, but his tenure in Washington has yet to produce a playoff victory. Now he’s turning to his third quarterback in as many years with Howell taking over. Howell, a ’22 fifth-round pick from North Carolina, has exactly one start to his name.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (47)
- QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (19)
- HC: Josh McDaniels (28)
It’s tough to believe in the Raiders heading into 2023. Las Vegas’s defense is bad enough that the offense will need to score plenty, and asking Garoppolo to carry a team usually means bad outcomes. Additionally, McDaniels has been an utter disaster as a coach, sporting a 17–28 record between stops with Denver and Vegas. What changes this year?
25. Carolina Panthers (43)
- QB: Bryce Young (28)
- HC: Frank Reich (15)
Reich might be the perfect coach for Young as he enters the league. A former NFL quarterback with experience as a coordinator and coach, Reich should be able to guide Young through the inevitable learning curve he’s going to encounter. The big question is whether Carolina can keep Young upright, already a big problem in the preseason.
24. Chicago Bears (43)
- QB: Justin Fields (17)
- HC: Matt Eberflus (26)
The Bears are a great unknown. Expectations are growing rapidly around Fields, who enters his third year as a popular MVP bet. However, Fields has yet to throw for 3,000 yards in a season, and, although DJ Moore is a fine addition, Chicago remains limited offensively. Eberflus kept a poor roster in many games last season, but can he elevate an improved team to playoff contention?
23. New Orleans Saints (43)
- QB: Derek Carr (14)
- HC: Dennis Allen (29)
As a rookie, Carr had Allen as his coach with the Raiders. Now, they reunite with New Orleans being the favorites in the NFC South. Carr spent nine seasons with the Silver and Black, earning four Pro Bowl berths. Yet, he’s still without a playoff victory, appearing in only one postseason game. As for Allen, he’s a miserable 15–38 as a head coach. It’s time to win or face the possibility of being a lifetime assistant moving forward.
22. Green Bay Packers (35)
- QB: Jordan Love (25)
- HC: Matt LaFleur (10)
David E. Klutho/Sports Illustrated
LaFleur is about to have the biggest test of his young career. The Packers have moved on from Rodgers, his only starting quarterback in his four years in Green Bay. Enter Love, who has sat for three seasons and takes over with a year, maybe two, to prove himself. LaFleur will make Love’s acclimation easier with smart play-calling, but don’t expect a perfect transition.
21. New York Giants (34)
- QB: Daniel Jones (18)
- HC: Brian Daboll (16)
The Giants were one of the toughest rankings in both categories. Daboll is clearly a good coach, but he’s shown his wares for only one season. Jones has struggled through much of his pro career, but he just signed for $160 million over four years. Does New York believe there’s better play ahead, or was the deal out of panic? We’ll find out.
20. Cleveland Browns (34)
- QB: Deshaun Watson (16)
- HC: Kevin Stefanski (18)
The Browns are at a crossroads. Stefanski won Coach of the Year in 2020, but injuries and suspensions to the quarterback position have sunk Cleveland each of the past two seasons. Now, Watson tries to bounce back from a hideous performance over the past six games of ’22. If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance Stefanski is gone.
19. Tennessee Titans (32)
- QB: Ryan Tannehill (21)
- HC: Mike Vrabel (11)
This is likely the last year for Tannehill in Nashville, and it’s a season with many potential outcomes. The Titans have a quality front seven defensively and an offense that, should things break right, could be intriguing with receivers Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins, and running back Derrick Henry. With Vrabel, Tennessee will always be well coached, but will he be enough to keep the Titans afloat in the brutal AFC?
18. Detroit Lions (32)
- QB: Jared Goff (12)
- HC: Dan Campbell (20)
Finding the right spot for Campbell was tough. It’s impossible to dislike the job he’s done despite his lopsided record through two years, but now the tough part comes. The Lions have been a lovable loser for years, but suddenly are expected to win the NFC North in many corners. They’ll need Campbell to be great at all the details for them to realize their potential.
17. Dallas Cowboys (31)
- QB: Dak Prescott (10)
- HC: Mike McCarthy (21)
Is any duo under more pressure this season? McCarthy has a Super Bowl ring and yet most believe he’s a subpar coach who consistently makes bad in-game decisions. Meanwhile, Prescott led the league in interceptions last season despite missing a month. Now, with the Cowboys loaded with talent, it’s on the coach and quarterback to take Dallas to the Super Bowl, somewhere it hasn’t been since 1995.
16. New York Jets (31)
- QB: Aaron Rodgers (7)
- HC: Robert Saleh (24)
Rodgers won consecutive MVPs in 2020 and ’21 but struggled mightily last year. He didn’t have a single 300-yard game with the Packers and, in a must-win Week 18 at home against the Lions, went 17-of-27 for 205 yards with a touchdown and a pick. With Saleh, it’s impossible to know. He’s never had a good quarterback, so the question of whether he can lead a quality group remains an open question.
15. Miami Dolphins (30)
- QB: Tua Tagovailoa (13)
- HC: Mike McDaniel (17)
Tagovailoa might be the most debated quarterback in terms of his talent level. Overall, he belongs in the top half even with the injury cloud looming over his 2023 season. With McDaniel, he’s shown chops on the offensive side and now has defensive coordinator Vic Fangio paired with him. Part of coaching is surrounding yourself with a top staff, and McDaniel has done that.
14. Minnesota Vikings (30)
- QB: Kirk Cousins (11)
- HC: Kevin O’Connell (19)
For all the criticism that Cousins gets, he’s a borderline top-10 quarterback. Over the past eight seasons, he’s thrown for 4,000 yards seven times while tossing at least 25 touchdowns in each of them. As for O’Connell, it’s hard not to be bullish on his abilities. Nobody believes Minnesota is a legitimate 13-win team as it was last year, but O’Connell knows offense, and he’ll keep the Vikings in playoff contention.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (30)
- QB: Justin Herbert (5)
- HC: Brandon Staley (25)
Only the Patriots have a bigger disparity between rankings (Steelers are tied). Los Angeles is blessed with the talents of Herbert, but the Chargers are yet to win a playoff game under his command. The reasons are many—and Herbert shoulders some blame—but none are bigger than Staley. He has failed to field a good defense while making consistent blunders such as playing Mike Williams in a meaningless Week 18 game in 2022, getting him hurt.
12. San Francisco 49ers (28)
- QB: Brock Purdy (22)
- HC: Kyle Shanahan (6)
Shanahan has a bizarre track record. He has reached three conference title games in the past four years with Jimmy Garoppolo and Purdy as his quarterbacks. He also has a record of just 52–46 in San Francisco. Still, he’s clearly a top coach, and if Purdy can build on his shocking rookie year, the Niners have a quality combination.
11. Denver Broncos (28)
- QB: Russell Wilson (20)
- HC: Sean Payton (8)
No combination is more fascinating this season. Wilson and Payton have each won Super Bowls elsewhere, but both earned their rings long ago. Now, after Payton was out of football for a year and Wilson endured a brutal 2022 campaign, they unite in an attempt to rejuvenate Denver. It won’t be an easy task, but there’s also enough history to have hope.
10. New England Patriots (26)
- QB: Mac Jones (24)
- HC: Bill Belichick (2)
Although New England hasn’t won a playoff game since the departure of Tom Brady after the 2019 season, Belichick remains a phenomenal coach. Unfortunately, the quarterback play has been underwhelming. Jones had an intriguing rookie season in ’21 before a lack of structure around him made for a rough ’22. What will happen this time around?
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (26)
- QB: Kenny Pickett (23)
- HC: Mike Tomlin (3)
Tomlin has famously never suffered through a sub-.500 season, and this likely won’t be his first. While Pickett struggled as a rookie with seven touchdowns against nine interceptions, he has an excellent supporting cast highlighted by receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Will those stars elevate him, or will Pickett hold the team back?
8. Seattle Seahawks (22)
- QB: Geno Smith (15)
- HC: Pete Carroll (7)
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports
Who would have thought this a year ago? Smith went from a bust, to a backup, to one of the best stories in the NFL. After making his first Pro Bowl in his age-32 season, Smith is now leading one of the most complete rosters in football, while Carroll continues to rack up winning seasons. Since joining the Seahawks in 2010, Carroll has just three losing campaigns and 128 wins.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (17)
- QB: Jalen Hurts (4)
- HC: Nick Sirianni (13)
Of all the young tandems on the list, Philadelphia’s has the highest upside. Hurts is an All-Pro who was fantastic in the Super Bowl despite the loss, while Sirianni has shown he can handle the room and design an offense. The only question is how much the turnover of both coordinators impacts the team. Look for the Eagles to make many serious runs at a ring with these two in charge.
6. Buffalo Bills (17)
- QB: Josh Allen (3)
- HC: Sean McDermott (14)
The pressure is on in Buffalo. The Bills are three-time defending AFC East champions but have made it to the AFC championship game only once in that time. Buffalo enters 2023 as one of the favorites to raise the Lombardi Trophy, and, for it to happen, the Bills need Allen to outplay Mahomes and Burrow, while McDermott steps up in the big moments. It’s something that, so far, has eluded both.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (15)
- QB: Trevor Lawrence (6)
- HC: Doug Pederson (9)
Nobody expected much from the Jaguars last season after watching the Urban Meyer disaster unfold in 2021. However, Pederson and Lawrence made sweet music in their first campaign together, going 9–8 and winning a playoff game. Now the expectations are for an AFC South crown. Jacksonville’s schedule could also lead to fighting for the conference’s top seed.
4. Los Angeles Rams (14)
- QB: Matthew Stafford (9)
- HC: Sean McVay (5)
Stafford and McVay won it all in 2021, but struggled through a nightmarish title defense last year. While the Rams’ roster is barren in many areas, this duo should keep them in games and perhaps even make a playoff push in the middling NFC. If Los Angeles exceeds expectations, these two will be why.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (14)
- QB: Joe Burrow (2)
- HC: Zac Taylor (12)
The Bengals likely have their best quarterback in franchise history, which is a statement considering they’ve had a pair of MVPs under center. Provided Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati is a contender once more, and its coaching staff is a big reason why. Taylor is a young, rising star in the business, and his two coordinators, Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo, are excellent.
2. Baltimore Ravens (12)
- QB: Lamar Jackson (8)
- HC: John Harbaugh (4)
Both Harbaugh and Jackson are firmly in the top 10 of their lists, and it’s realistic to make the case each should be in the top five. However, while Harbaugh has a Super Bowl ring, Jackson has only a single playoff win on his résumé. At some point, the Ravens should break through, but will it be this year? The offense is in new hands as coordinator Todd Monken takes over, and his influence could be the tipping point.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (2)
- QB: Patrick Mahomes (1)
- HC: Andy Reid (1)
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA Today network
Only two current quarterback-coach combinations have won Super Bowls together, and the Mahomes-Reid duo is the only one to win twice. It’s tough to argue either isn’t at the top of his ranking, with Mahomes as a two-time NFL MVP at age 27, while Reid has been to four Super Bowls and a staggering 10 conference title games. This year, a dynasty is on the line for the Chiefs.
