After a small slate of Week Zero games, the 2022 FBS college football season kicks off in full this week. It’s been more than seven months since Kirby Smart’s Georgia team unseated Nick Saban and Alabama to win the Bulldogs’ first title since 1980, but both programs are back in the spotlight this fall.
Alabama leads Sports Illustrated’s preseason top 25, but are the Tide a lock to have the confetti fall on them in January? And after an offseason of high-profile change in the coaching ranks, can a team like Lincoln Riley’s USC crash the exclusive club that is the College Football Playoff?
The SI college football staff’s predictions are in for the Playoff, national champion, Heisman winner, biggest disappointment and more.
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Playoff and title predictions:
Pat Forde
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Michigan
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
Title game: Alabama vs. Ohio State
National champ: Alabama
Ross Dellenger
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 USC
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
Title game: Alabama vs. Ohio State
National champ: Alabama
Richard Johnson
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Utah
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
Title game: Alabama vs. Ohio State
National champ: Ohio State
John Garcia Jr.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 USC
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
Title game: Alabama vs. Ohio State
National champ: Alabama
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Who will win the national championship, and why?
Forde: Alabama will win yet another natty because it could have the nation’s best defense and the nation’s best quarterback. In addition to having the nation’s best coach. Ohio State has the firepower to challenge the Crimson Tide, but ultimately the best of the SEC will beat the best of the Big Ten again.
Dellenger: Bryce Young, Will Anderson Jr. and Henry To'oTo'o, all led by the greatest coach in the game—what’s not to like? The Tide seem more hungry than ever after coming up short in Nick Saban’s incredible 10th appearance in a national championship game last year. The Revenge Year is on.
Johnson: In a rematch of the 2020 national title game, Ohio State’s defense will look less outmatched facing a Tide offense that isn’t that much of a juggernaut. And that’s really all this Ohio State team needs to get the job done this year, considering on offense it’ll be able to basically score at will on anyone.
Garcia: To feature a returning head coach/GOAT, offensive and defensive coordinators, the Heisman Trophy winner, the sport’s best defensive player and a sprinkle of top transfers would profile as too good to be true with most programs. Alabama gets the benefit of the reverse-jinx doubt, as it rarely brings back proven personnel on and off the field around Nick Saban. Sign us up for at least one more matchup between Alabama and Georgia, either way.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Forde: I’m rolling with Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr. for the Heisman. It would be unprecedented for a linebacker to win the award, but it’s time to break precedent. You could argue that Anderson should have won it last year instead of teammate Bryce Young—his 331⁄2 tackles for loss were 111⁄2 more than the second-highest total in the nation in 2021. That’s ridiculous. If Anderson can add some other splash plays to his résumé this season—forced fumbles, a defensive score, a blocked kick, maybe even a cameo on offense—that would help his candidacy.
Dellenger: Bryce Young. Again. Young would be only the second repeat Heisman winner, joining Ohio State running back Archie Griffin, who won the award in both 1974 and ’75.
Johnson: The QBs are too trendy—for the love of God let’s break this glass ceiling and give this award to a defensive player. Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. was in my opinion better than Aidan Hutchinson last season, but the latter got the invite to New York. This year, if Anderson can threaten the NCAA sack record of 24 (he had 171⁄2 last season, which only one player in the last decade has eclipsed) he’ll have the notoriety to win the award as the big quarterbacks split votes with their teammates.
Garcia: Caleb Williams. If USC storms into the College Football Playoff discussion, the former No. 1 recruit will have to shoulder the load. A soft first half of the season should allow for all of the new faces in L.A. to settle before that trip to Utah in mid-October. A dynamic dual-threat quarterback with one of the nation’s top wide receiver units at his disposal, Williams also has the combination of commanding the spotlight and grit to win over voters looking at what is likely to be a heavy-QB field invited to New York.
Which Power 5 team will be the biggest disappointment?
Forde: I think Texas A&M is a year away from contention and set up to disappoint. I’m not convinced the Aggies have a difference-maker at quarterback, the defensive line is talented but young, and their kicker is unproven. Playing in the SEC West is a meat grinder that should lead to multiple losses, and the Sept. 17 home game against Miami looms as another major challenge.
Dellenger: There’s a lot of hype surrounding Notre Dame. The Irish begin the year No. 5 in the AP poll. They’ve got a brand-new quarterback, a brand-new coach and a schedule that includes a road game at Ohio State (Week 1!), trips to UNC and USC, and a home game against Clemson. Woof!
Johnson: Michigan starts the season in the top 10 with new coordinators, a quarterback battle that has yet to be decided and a defense that will have to change the way it plays after losing two dominant edge rushers. The Wolverines struck while the iron was hot in 2021; expect regression in ’22.
Garcia: Auburn. Perhaps a product of the toughest division in the sport, there are a lot of coin-flip feels when looking at the Tigers schedule. Auburn doesn’t have to leave home until the second week of October, just before the start of conference play, so anything less than a strong start will signal calls for change on the Plains. Uncertainty in the quarterback room, a lack of playmakers outside and a less-than-typical Auburn front-seven depth spells for more losses after the weather turns.
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Which under-the-radar team will emerge as a Playoff contender?
Forde: I’m projecting Tennessee at 7–1 when the first College Football Playoff rankings are revealed Nov. 1. Reality may arrive the following Saturday when the Volunteers play Georgia, but the Tennessee could be the second-best team in the SEC East and finish 10–2.
Dellenger: Lincoln Riley’s Trojans. USC spent the offseason plundering the transfer portal, which included nabbing the nation’s best receiver in Jordan Addison and three starters from Oklahoma. QB Caleb Williams has a ton of talent around him to return USC to the spotlight.
Johnson: NC State has a Clemson-sized boulder in front of it, but if it can make it two in a row against the Tigers, the Wolfpack could have serious Playoff steam behind them this season.
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Garcia: Texas. The Big 12 has a more wide-open feel to it than previous seasons, thanks to Lincoln Riley bolting for USC. So not only does Texas’s star power look like a safe bet to compete—but the personnel loss at Oklahoma has that program somewhat vulnerable (and Texas nearly knocked ’em off last year anyway). The early lump Texas should take to Alabama will allow for adjustments as Quinn Ewers settles with the standout personnel he will be working with the rest of the way.
Which coach will be on the hottest seat by October?
Forde: Geoff Collins could well be 1–4 at Georgia Tech after Oct. 1. He’s 9–5 at the school and barely survived last season; now he catches Clemson, Mississippi, UCF and Pittsburgh (the latter two on the road) in the first five games. Not sure the Yellow Jackets will score on Clemson on Labor Day night.
Dellenger: Georgia Tech’s Geoff Collins, and it might not take until October. The Yellowjackets open with a five-game stretch of Clemson, Western Carolina, Ole Miss, UCF and Pitt.
Johnson: What about before September? Nebraska’s loss in Ireland to Northwestern to open the season did not inject optimism that he’ll get it turned around, and his buyout drops to $7.5 million on Oct. 1.
Garcia: Herm Edwards. Sure, this pick can be viewed as low-hanging fruit, but ASU has a tough first half of the season on deck, including a trip to Stillwater two weeks before Utah and USC kick off the Sun Devils’ Pac-12 slate. Edwards and his staff had as much transfer portal turnover as any Power 5 program, another element that may prove tough to overcome early in the season.
Who will be the fall’s biggest breakout player?
Forde: Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, all of 5'10" and 160 pounds, had a huge season for Houston in 2021 with 90 catches for 1,322 yards and 12 touchdowns. That included a 10-catch, 150-yard game against Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl and nine grabs for 152 yards against Cincinnati’s NFL-laden secondary. Dell is once again the primary target for Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune. Expect big things.
Dellenger: UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee. Sure, this athletic freak of a quarterback plays at the Group of 5 level, but that won’t stop him from gaining the spotlight. The Ole Miss transfer is a perfect fit for coach Gus Malzahn’s offense.
Johnson: You will know the name Marvin Harrison Jr. if you don’t know it now. While everyone is focused on Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Ohio State’s group of pass catchers, the son of the NFL Hall of Famer gives QB C.J. Stroud perhaps the best No. 2 receiver in the country.
Garcia: John Rhys Plumlee. If you led the SEC in rushing yards per game three years ago, do you qualify to be a breakout candidate? If so, the former Ole Miss QB and wide receiver is now at UCF, where he won the starting quarterback job under Gus Malzahn. When the longtime coach’s offenses ran best at Auburn, he had a dynamic dual-threat who kept defenses honest. The fit, combined with one of college football’s best running back rooms, should make for a UCF run in the American.
