Good morning, I’m Kyle Wood, subbing in for Dan Gartland. Today concludes Fantasy Draft Week at Sports Illustrated, but you can stick with us throughout the NFL season and beyond. Get the best of our fantasy advice and betting analysis by subscribing to the Winners Club newsletter.
In today’s SI:AM—Fantasy Football Edition:
💯 In pursuit of a perfect draft
🏈 Predictions for every NFL game
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Drafting for perfection
Pulling off a perfect fantasy draft sounds like quite the tall task. There are plenty of ways things can go wrong, such as a leaguemate who snipes your sleeper or you accidentally draft the wrong player. There are only a few avenues to an ideal draft, one in which “you barely need to make any roster moves all season, outside of dealing with injuries and bye weeks.”
But Michael Fabiano says this version of “fantasy nirvana” is within reach. He devised separate strategies for members of 10- and 12-team leagues to follow for 16-round drafts. Both are based on a draft position from the middle to end of the first round using current average draft position data for PPR leagues.
In the 10-teamer, Fabiano begins with three straight wide receivers: CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and Calvin Ridley. After stacking those three high-end wideouts, Fabiano added QB Joe Burrow in the fourth round before filling his starting running back slots with Alexander Mattison and Dameon Pierce in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively.
This is a different strategy than some managers might be accustomed to, but wide receivers are all the rage in fantasy football, which pushes more running backs to the middle rounds. And selecting Burrow in the fourth is another sign of the times as top-end quarterbacks have seen their average draft position skyrocket.
Fabiano begins the 12-team draft with running back Nick Chubb, but waits until the sixth round before selecting his next RB, Javonte Williams. He opted to employ the “hero RB” draft strategy in this larger league. After Chubb, Fabiano once again selects three wide receivers in a row: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper. Next up is a player who nearly broke the quarterback rushing record last season: Justin Fields. Fabiano says he’s focusing on mobile quarterbacks earlier than he ever has before.
A few players you’ll notice in both mock drafts are quarterback Kenny Pickett and running back Kenneth Gainwell. Pickett is Fabiano’s favorite sleeper this year, and he’s banking on a big bump in production for the second-year pro. As for Gainwell, he’s the returner in a crowded Philadelphia backfield with D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny and he’s the cheapest of the three.
The best of SI
- Connor Orr predicted the result of every game of the 2023 NFL season. That’s right, all 272 of them. And fair warning, Jets fans: You might not love how the AFC East standings shake out.
- Tom Verducci reported that Angels star Shohei Ohtani intends to continue hitting after he was diagnosed with a UCL tear in his pitching elbow. Ohtani leads MLB with 44 home runs on the year.
- Spanish soccer president Luis Rubiales says he won’t resign after backlash following a nonconsensual kiss following Spain’s Women’s World Cup win over England.
- 49ers general manager John Lynch said “the most likely option” is that 2021 No. 3 pick Trey Lance, who is now QB3, remains with the team.
- Richard Johnson revealed that Tulane is requiring coaches and staff to sign an NDA to prevent the sharing of confidential information that could be relevant to sports betting.
- After a win over the Sky on Thursday, the Aces improved to 30–4 and now hold the record for most victories in a season in WNBA history.
- Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley are tied with Viktor Hovland for the lead at the Tour Championship at East Lake.
The top five…
… fantasy sleepers:
5. Packers WR Romeo Doubs (WR61, 171 OVR)
4. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (QB21, 165 OVR)
3. Rams TE Tyler Higbee (TE14, 137 OVR)
2. Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (WR49, 132 OVR)
1. Broncos RB Samaje Perine (RB37, 109 OVR)
Fabiano’s Fun Fact
Aaron Rodgers to the Jets has been one of the biggest story lines in the NFL and fantasy football. And while he should help the value of the players in his offense, history shows that Rodgers isn’t likely to put up huge numbers.
In the history of Jets quarterbacks, only one has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in a single season. That was Joe Namath, way back in 1967. What’s more, they’ve had just one other signal-caller (Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2015) throw for more than 3,900 yards. That list includes Brett Favre, who threw for just 3,472 yards with 22 touchdowns and 22 picks in his one season in New York.
