The race for the College Football Playoff is straightforward at this point. There are five undefeated teams left standing: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and Washington. Because the Buckeyes and Wolverines play each other next weekend, there can be a maximum of only four unbeatens when the CFP committee makes its selections Dec. 3. If four of those five teams remain undefeated, it will make the committee’s job really simple to pick the four playoff teams.

But what if another team goes down?

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t in any danger in games against inferior Big Ten opponents tomorrow (Maryland and Minnesota, respectively) ahead of next weekend’s showdown in Ann Arbor. Georgia is playing No. 18 Tennessee but is a 10-point favorite on the road in Knoxville. Florida State is playing a North Alabama team that is 3–7 against its FCS schedule.

And then there’s Washington, which faces a stiff challenge on the road against No. 11 Oregon State. The Beavers are the betting favorite in this one (with the spread anywhere from -1 to -2.5 at various sportsbooks), although computer programs like ESPN’s FPI and the Massey composite give a narrow edge to the Huskies.

Led by the resurgence of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, a transfer from Clemson, Oregon State has picked up noteworthy wins over Utah, UCLA and Colorado. Its two losses (to Washington State and Arizona) have come by a combined six points. It has one of the best offenses in the country (ranked 19th in total yards per game and 14th in points per game) and a respectable defense that ranks 32nd in points allowed per game.

Washington has passed significant tests already this season, beating Oregon, Utah and USC in hard-fought games, but tomorrow night’s game (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC) will be the toughest test this season. Win or lose, the result won’t determine Washington’s playoff fate, but a loss would make the committee’s job a lot harder when it has to pick its top four in two weeks.

The remaining schedules of the other unbeatens mean that we’re all but assured to have at least three undefeated teams left heading into conference championship weekend, and those three should head into the postseason with their playoff hopes intact. The winner of Ohio State–Michigan will be a heavy favorite in the Big Ten title game against Iowa, and Florida State should have little trouble with its ACC championship opponent (likely Louisivlle). While Georgia will face a difficult SEC championship game against Alabama, you have to believe that the Bulldogs’ résumé is strong enough that they’d earn a spot in the four-team field even with a loss to the Tide.

That puts a lot of pressure on Washington to remain undefeated if it hopes to earn a spot in the playoff. The committee has made a statement by placing the Huskies last among the group of unbeatens so far this season, so how would it treat a one-loss Washington?

A Washington loss—either tomorrow night or in the Pac-12 title game in two weeks—would open the door for any number of one-loss teams to make the playoff. Texas, Alabama and Oregon would all have compelling cases if they win their conference championship games. You could even make an argument on behalf of the loser of the Ohio State–Michigan game.

I realize there are a lot of “ifs” here and a lot can change between now and Dec. 3, but the point is this: If you’re rooting for chaos over the last three weekends of the college football regular season, keep a close eye on Corvallis tomorrow night.

The best of Sports Illustrated

The Bengals’ season took an unfortunate turn when Joe Burrow injured his wrist.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports

Here are Pat Forde’s and Richard Johnson’s picks for all the biggest games in college football this weekend.
After Joe Burrow’s wrist injury last night against the Ravens, Conor Orr believes we’re about to learn a whole lot about how good the Bengals really are. Burrow’s injury was Matt Verderame’s top takeaway from last night’s game, along with Lamar Jackson’s performance and another rough night for NFL officials.
The UConn women dominated Maryland last night, 80–48, behind an excellent performance from Paige Bueckers. After missing all of last season with a torn ACL, Bueckers is back and better than ever, Emma Baccellieri writes.
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is expected to miss the rest of the season after injuring his ankle last night against the Bengals. John Harbaugh took issue with the controversial style of tackle that led to the injury.
F1’s Las Vegas Grand Prix got off to an inauspicious start when the first round of practice was canceled after 10 minutes after a car was damaged by a loose drain cover.
Kansas State upset No. 2 Iowa as Caitlin Clark went an uncharacteristic 2-for-16 from three.
The NHL is reportedly considering holding the Winter Classic at Ohio State’s football stadium.

The top five...

… things I saw last night:

5. A Braves minor league affiliate’s penguin-themed rebrand.

4. Shohei Ohtani celebrating with his dog after being named AL MVP.

3. Nelson Agholor’s flip into the end zone after catching a tipped pass for a touchdown.

2. Tim Stützle’s baseball-style goal to win it for the Senators with two seconds left in overtime. Red Wings goalie James Reimer inexplicably ducked as the puck flew toward him.

1. Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia’s ridiculous throw in a Venezuelan winter league game.

SIQ

In an otherwise excellent game on this day in 2000, which player tied John Drew’s NBA record for turnovers in a game with 14?

Stephon Marbury
Jason Kidd
Baron Davis
Gary Payton

Yesterday’s SIQ: On Nov. 16, 1996, Washington running back Corey Dillon set an NCAA record for rushing yards in a quarter. How many yards did he rack up in the opening quarter of the Huskies’ win over San Jose State?

Answer: 222. He also took a screen pass 83 yards for a touchdown, giving him a preposterous 305 yards from scrimmage—all in the first quarter. He had three touchdowns on the ground (78, 48 and four yards) as Washington built a 25–0 lead at the end of the opening frame. His 83-yard touchdown catch was the second-longest pass play in Washington history.

Washington led the game 44–3 at halftime and went on to win 53–10 as it tore up the San Jose State defense to the tune of 734 total yards (559 on the ground).

The previous record for rushing yards in a quarter was 214, by Southern Illinois’s Andre Herrera in 1976.

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