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Barchart
Rich Asplund

Shrinking Global Cocoa Surplus Boosts Prices

Ice United States NY ICCO European Union London the International Cocoa Organization the Ivory Coast

March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Thursday closed up +67 (+1.08%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed up +5 (+0.11%).

Cocoa prices extended their sharp two-week-long rally on Thursday to 5-week highs.  Cocoa prices have rallied sharply over the past two weeks amid a tightening global supply outlook.  On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT.  It also lowered its global cocoa production estimate for 2024/25 to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT previously.  In addition, Rabobank on Tuesday cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.

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