NSW has a win-loss record of 6-2 in State of Origin matches when Cameron Murray is in the starting side. It becomes 3-5 when he is picked on the interchange bench.
That 3-5 was about to become 2-6 until Queensland fullback Kalyn Ponga was sent off with 23 minutes to go in Origin I of this series.
The Blues were down 20-6 at the time and it was obvious they weren't going to rescue the result.
Ponga's dismissal gave them a critical opportunity and they used the one-man advantage to drag it out of the fire and win 22-20.
If you search hard enough and long enough you can find statistics to support any argument.
They can mean nothing or they can mean something and I'm going with the latter when it comes to the Murray stat because of the type of player we're dealing with here.
Murray is the definition of a competitor who plays the game at a high level every minute he's out there.
He has an undeniable enthusiasm for hard work on both sides of the ball and makes sure he immediately becomes - and remains - heavily involved.
Murray can't help but be an inspiration to his teammates and take them with him when he displays that sort of attitude.
He leads by example and leaving him on the bench for Origin II at the MCG next Wednesday is a luxury.
Is it a luxury the Blues can afford? Maybe, maybe not. We're not going to know for sure until the two teams get out there and play the game. But I see going without him at the start as a risk and I wouldn't be taking it.
The opportunity to easily slip Murray into the starting side for game two was there after Origin I, when Blues starting props Addin Fonua-Blake and Mitchell Barnett were both below par.
The availability of Payne Haas after returning from an injury that excluded him from Origin I meant his selection was automatic and Isaah Yeo could've been moved from lock to prop.
It's a position Yeo would easily handle. He plays like that a lot of the time anyway.
Either Fonua-Blake or Barnett could've gone to the bench for Daniel Saifiti, who wasn't even used in game one, with the other missing out altogether.
I would've gone without both Fonua-Blake and Barnett, with Jackson Ford coming onto the bench as a prop or second-rower, but I knew it was unlikely both would miss out.
I thought at least one of them would lose his spot in the squad though and for mine it would've been Fonua-Blake. He may actually be too big a body for Origin at the speed this version of the game is played.
But they're both still there - Barnett starting and Fonua-Blake on the bench
NSW have gone for Dylan Lucas in the second-row, with Haumole Olakau'atu being dropped from the starting side to number 20.
That's tough on Olakau'atu, who is an impact player, but the Blues obviously thought it was better to go for a player like Lucas who can be an impact player but is also guaranteed to do a lot of work.
The question is whether it would've been better to go back to either Liam Martin or Angus Crichton in the second-row, but we'll see what happens. Who knows, the selection of Lucas might turn out to be a master-stroke.
But if the Blues aren't on the ball from the start of the game it won't matter.
It's been well documented how they were poor in the first half of both games two and three in last year's series and again in game one this year. Queensland established a big lead each time.
Making Murray a starter might've helped there, but it's on with the show we go.
MARK Nawaqanitawase has now landed on the doorstep of a State of Origin debut for NSW with his selection at number 19.
It's hard to see how he's going to get a run in the game as a winger on a six-man bench unless there's a game-ending injury to an outside back, but anything can happen.
We saw that in Origin I when Casey McLean was thrust into the game as number 19 midway through the second half and had a huge impact.
I reckon Nawaqanitawase would more likely than not be a sensation in Origin. Sure, he's got a mistake or two in him, but he makes freakish tries out of nothing. He's got the ability to turn a game at this level.
Maybe, if it's not working for the Blues in the outside backs and the team desperately needs something special to happen, he might actually come on as a straight tactical substitution.
The guy is an amazing talent and if he does get on the field in Origin II or III it's going to be well worth watching.
He won't be at risk of going into his shell. I don't think he's got a shell, as such. He backs himself and is prepared to put it all out there and that seems unlikely to change under any circumstances.
What about Reece Walsh at number 18 for Queensland? It's going to be interesting to see if and when the Maroons use him.
He should've been in the squad for game one. It doesn't matter if he's not playing great for Brisbane, he's a player with massive self-belief who is capable of rising to any occasion. Particularly when you're surrounded by other elite players, as in Origin.
The situation will determine what happens with him in this game, but if Queensland are chasing points and Walsh and Kalyn Ponga end up being out there at the same time for them it will be a tantalising prospect.
