The next domino in the running back vs. NFL saga is about to fall.
Following a meeting with Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay on his bus, running back Jonathan Taylor has requested a trade out of The Hoosier Capital, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Sources: #Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor has formally requested a trade after meeting with owner Jim Irsay. pic.twitter.com/BH7dhZAzUD
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 30, 2023
Taylor is on the physically unable to perform list but wants a contract extension that will align him with the league’s highest-paid running backs. Taylor, 24, is set to hit free agency next offseason.
Taylor battled injuries last season, missing six games after suffering an ankle injury early in the season. In 2021, however, Taylor was the league’s most productive, posting a league-high 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Always vocal on social media, Irsay took to Twitter to offer his thoughts on running backs wanting to get better contracts.
“NFL Running Back situation,” Irsay said. “We have negotiated a CBA,that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides..to say now that a specific Player category wants another negotiation after the fact,is inappropriate. Some Agents are selling ‘bad faith’”
While the Colts may not choose to trade Taylor, his request out of Indianapolis may open the door for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to pursue the disgruntled running back, pairing him with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Despite the eye-opening numbers that combination would bring, the question becomes whether the Vikings should send significant capital to the Colts.
Just how good is Taylor?
Jonathan Taylor isn’t a difficult evaluation, but it is challenging to look past his struggles last season.
Taylor struggled to make much of an impact in the Colts’ offense last season, averaging a career-low 4.5 yards per carry. While Taylor wasn’t the only part of the offense that struggled, it’s hard to look past Taylor’s struggles.
If he stays healthy, though, Taylor can be the league’s best running back.
In 2020, Taylor put together an insane season, rushing for over 170 yards in three games, including a 185-yard and four-touchdown performance against the Buffalo Bills in week 11. Taylor also helped hide any potential inefficiencies on the offensive line, averaging 2.6 yards after contact.
Although Taylor isn’t super effective through the air, he’s one of the best pure runners in football and is a threat to score anytime the ball touches his hands.
The biggest concern around Taylor isn’t his talent but rather his wear.
The Colts have treated Taylor like a rental car, putting significant mileage on his tires without much concern. Through three NFL seasons, he’s already carried the ball 756 times and even led the NFL in attempts in 2021. In college, he also had over 900 carries in three seasons, meaning there’s a chance his longevity in the NFL could be affected.
The package
Last season’s trade deadline brought saw one of the league’s best running backs move teams, meaning there’s no better place to start.
Looking primed to contend for the Super Bowl, the San Francisco 49ers added running back Christian McCaffrey into their already dynamic offense. The package for McCaffrey was hefty but did not include any first-round picks; instead, the 49ers traded a second, third, and fourth-round pick in 2023 and a fifth-round pick in 2024 to the Carolina Panthers.
Unlike Taylor, McCaffrey’s contract runs until 2025 after he signed a four-year extension with the Panthers in 2020. That extension likely made the 49ers more comfortable with giving up multiple Day 2 picks because they didn’t have to renegotiate a deal that would set the market.
The McCaffrey trade is really the last time a star running back has been traded in recent memory, so there’s little precedent to go off. While solid complementary running backs like Jeff Wilson, Jr., and Nyheim Hines also switched teams last season, Taylor is a significantly better running back than both, meaning their packages hardly place a precedent.
The most we can take from past packages is that Taylor would likely go for at least one Day 2 selection; however, it’s hard to expect much more.
The contract
It’s possible the Vikings could trade for Taylor and treat him as a rental, but given where the Vikings currently stand on their “competitive rebuild”, it feels more likely that trading for him would come with a hefty extension.
In theory, the Vikings would have two years of team control with a franchise tag, but doing so would risk making Taylor unhappy with the recent mood around running backs earning the tag.
Reports have said that Taylor wants to become one of the league’s highest-paid running backs, putting his average annual salary in the $13-to-$16 million range.
Christian McCaffrey is currently the top-paid back, making an average of $16.015 million per season. Taylor may look to reset the running back market, but it feels more likely that he falls somewhere between Derrick Henry ($12.5 million AAV) and Alvin Kamara ($15 million AAV). A salary in that range would make Taylor the third-highest-paid running back.
However, most of the negotiations would likely center around how much Taylor would be guaranteed in his next contract.
McCaffrey and Kamara are currently guaranteed $36 million and $34 million, while Henry and Nick Chubb fall below the $30 million mark. If Taylor wanted to become the highest-paid running back in football, that would likely mean he’d ask for the most guaranteed money too. As a result, Taylor will likely ask for anywhere between $38 million and $40 million guaranteed.
While Taylor is a similar runner to most of this list, the lack of receiving upside compared to the likes of Kamara and McCaffrey could make the Vikings weary of offering such a hefty deal.
In any case, a five-year extension worth $80 million, with $40 million guaranteed would pay Taylor similarly to McCaffrey but give him slightly more in guaranteed money, satisfying that part of discussions.
Should the Vikings trade for Taylor?
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: it feels unlikely that the current regime would pay top dollar for a running back.
Adofo-Mensah is one of the more analytically-inclined general managers in the league, and analytics currently paint a poor picture of paying running backs. Pointing towards the Cleveland Browns, Adofo-Mensah’s old team, extending Nick Chubb is a fair argument, but the Browns didn’t have to trade for Chubb, giving extra draft picks in the process. The Browns also signed Chubb to a three-year bridge extension, meaning he’ll hit the market again in 2025.
Instead, it feels more likely that the Vikings are transitioning into a committee approach in the backfield. This season’s committee is headlined by Alexander Mattison, who the Vikings signed to a two-year contract in the off-season.
The Vikings could be looking for another running back in 2024, but free agency should allow opportunities to upgrade the position. Next season’s free agency is saturated at running back, with Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Saquon Barkley scheduled to hit the open market.
Outside of the top names, players like Devin Singletary, Cam Akers, and A.J. Dillon are also free agents, and all have proven to be serviceable at one point in their NFL careers.
All of this doesn’t even begin to explain the current contracts that are set to expire within the next two seasons for the Vikings. Although the Vikings gave Danielle Hunter a reworked contract on Sunday morning, the deal doesn’t add any extra years, meaning he’ll still hit free agency next offseason. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is also a free agent next offseason and should command a hefty salary.
Wide receiver Justin Jefferson will also hit the open market in 2025, and he should receive a contract that would make him the highest-paid non-quarterback offensive player.
While the Vikings could still fit Taylor into the cap room with those extensions, it would be prudent for Adofo-Mensah to focus on extending the players in-house before transitioning to adding a running back into the fold.
