It’s both an unfortunate possibility and an exciting prospect that we’ve gotten to the point where Shohei Ohtani may not finish the season as a Los Angeles Angel. It’s unfortunate because every baseball fan would love to see Ohtani and Mike Trout in the playoffs after six years of two of the sport’s generational talents playing together has yet to produce even a winning season for the Angels. It’s also fun to consider what the Halos could fetch for a two-way star who has pushed the boundaries of what’s possible in the major leagues.
The Angels will hold onto their metronome if there’s even a slim chance they can break MLB’s longest playoff drought. But a practical evaluation of their outlook would indicate that’s extremely unlikely (Fangraphs rates their playoff odds as 11.3%, even after all five teams above them in the wild-card race lost Tuesday night, while they won). Not only have the Angels once again been mediocre this season—many of the players who have helped them match that low bar are now on the injured list, including Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon and Gio Urshela, who have all gone down since mid-June. On a related note, Los Angeles is 7–15 since June 20 and trails Houston by 4.5 games for the American League’s final wild-card spot. The Angels may not have been a playoff team even with their whole lineup healthy, and they certainly aren’t in their current form.
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It seems obvious to everyone except team owner Arte Moreno that the Halos’ best option is to recoup whatever value they can for Ohtani before his expected offseason departure leaves them with just a single compensation pick in his wake. While it’s unclear if Moreno has yet to come to terms with the uncomfortable scenario confronting his team, his front office appears to be in listening mode on potential deals ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported Saturday that the Angels’ interest could be piqued by deals involving multiple top-100 prospects. That would figure to be the bare minimum. Given Ohtani’s status as both a top-tier pitcher and hitter, and knowing that even a short-term rental of a single All-Star hitter or pitcher routinely attracts a package headlined by a top prospect, it stands to reason any deal for him must contain at least two premier prospects—preferably regarded among the top 50 in the game—along with other pieces.
Every proposed deal below was constructed with MLB Trade Values, which uses a database of real-life trades and a player valuation system to bolster its trade simulator (which we highly recommend playing around with). The site assigns each player a trade value range in the form of numbers estimating the surplus of value (in millions of dollars) each player will return over the course of his current contract. We’ll be using their highest approximation of Ohtani’s trade value in this exercise, as we’ve gotten every indication the Angels would need to be blown away to send off their two-way superstar. Perhaps one of the following offers could convince them to reluctantly pull the trigger.
Before we jump in, let us just acknowledge that going through this exercise highlights just how unlikely it will be that Ohtani is moved. Just about any package that can be put together either seems too light for a player of his caliber or too heavy for what would be a half-season rental. Some teams who will pursue him in free agency will be content to sit out a bidding war for his services via trade, whether that’s due to a lack of interest in emptying the farm or a lack of young talent necessary to put together a competitive offer. The odds strongly favor Ohtani to stay in Anaheim for a reason.
With that said, let’s have some fun and consider some offers that would get the Angels’ attention.
All prospect rankings are according to MLB Pipeline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The offer: 2B/3B Michael Busch (Dodgers’ No. 2 prospect, No. 34 overall), RHP Gavin Stone (No. 4, No. 49), Ryan Pepiot (No. 7, No. 78), INF/OF Eddys Leonard (No. 16, N/A), INF Alex Freeland (No. 24, N/A)
Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Monday that the Dodgers have “never believed” Moreno would trade Ohtani to them. That notion may very well be true. And perhaps president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is confident he can lure Ohtani up the I-5 over the winter without giving up any of the Dodgers’ talented youngsters. But the possibility is worth exploring because it makes too much baseball sense—the Dodgers are the betting markets’ favorite to be Ohtani’s next team, whether he ends up there in a few weeks or months.
Friedman oversees baseball’s model minor-league system, which has let Los Angeles execute some of the sport’s most shocking midseason trades during his tenure. The Dodgers would love to win a championship in front of their fans after the lone World Series win of their ongoing dynasty took place in Texas during the pandemic (the fan base was also robbed of a long-awaited parade). They could use a jolt with the Giants and Diamondbacks breathing down their necks in the NL West and a fierce battle shaping up for the NL’s No. 2 seed and a bye to the NLDS. While they’d likely have to pay a premium to move Ohtani across L.A. in time for a title run this year, they have the depth to do so without mortgaging the future.
Busch could be the Angels’ version of a better-contact hitting Max Muncy, as the left-handed slugger has mostly played second and third base while racking up 33 home runs and 94 walks in 169 games at Triple A over the past two years for a promising slash line of .278/.372/.507. Stone led the entire minor leagues with a 1.48 ERA last year and ranked fifth in strikeout rate (12.4 K/9). Pepiot’s changeup was once regarded as the best in his draft class, and though he appears to have lost some feel for it and needs to work out his control issues, he still has a ceiling of a top-level starter thanks to an improved fastball and slider.
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New York Yankees
The offer: OF Jasson Dominguez (Yankees’ No. 1 prospect, No. 41 overall), RHP Richard Fitts (No. 8, N/A), SS Roderick Arias (No. 11, N/A), RHP Clayton Beeter (No. 13, N/A), RHP Luis Serna (No. 17, N/A), RHP Chase Hampton (No. 24, N/A)
New York has slid down to last place in the AL East, but the team is still just 2.5 games back in the wild-card race and the pressure is on GM Brian Cashman to get the Bombers back to the World Series for the first time in 14 years. Bringing Ohtani to the Bronx would make one heck of a statement and give the Yankees the most recent two AL MVPs.
Dominguez is a worthy co-headliner in a deal for Ohtani, as the 20-year-old Dominican is a much-hyped five-tool player who seems like a fairly safe bet to succeed in the bigs. The problem with the Yankees is that Dominguez is one of their only two premium minor leaguers, with the other being catcher Austin Wells, whom the Angels may not be interested in given the presence of their own promising backstop Logan O’Hoppe. If New York doesn’t want to include one of its two young, heralded infielders in Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza—which seems exceedingly unlikely since they currently make up New York’s starting left side of the infield in the wake of Josh Donaldson’s injury—Cashman would be putting forth a quantity-over-quality offer behind Dominguez.
On the bright side, the Yankees had 18 pitchers among MLB Pipeline’s preseason rankings of their top 30 prospects, tied for the most of any team and meeting a need for Los Angeles, so the Angels could have their picks of the mid-level litter to round out the deal. But there may not be enough meat on the bones of the trade for the Angels to bite.
Baltimore Orioles
The offer: OF Colton Cowser (Orioles’ No. 2 prospect, No. 14 overall), OF Heston Kjerstad (No. 4, No. 36), LHP Cade Povich (No. 11, N/A), LHP Drew Rom (No. 18, N/A), RHP Carter Baumler (No. 21, N/A), SS Carter Young (No. 28, N/A)
Orioles also acquire OF Hunter Renfroe
The Orioles, on the other hand, have more than enough to offer Los Angeles as the owners of MLB’s top-ranked farm system. Baltimore has a whopping eight players in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospect rankings, including four in the top 36 and the No. 1-ranked player in shortstop Jackson Holliday. There’s no chance the O’s part ways with Holliday for a rental, even one of Ohtani’s stature, but there are still enough prized youngsters in Baltimore’s chest to construct a tempting proposal for the Angels.
Cowser could be the crown jewel—the former No. 5 overall pick was called up earlier this month after flirting with a 1.000 OPS in Triple A, and he has the athleticism to play all three outfield spots. It’s not a stretch to think Kjerstad could soon make his big-league debut, too, as the 24-year-old has slashed .327/.416/.564 in 29 Triple A games this season. If the Orioles want to bring in Renfroe to replace Cowser in the outfield rotation, provide some pop and get some insurance on Aaron Hicks turning back into a pumpkin, they have a wealth of mid-level prospects to do so. If the Angels are going to deal Ohtani, they may as well dump Renfroe and the rest of his one-year, $12 million contract, too.
The biggest roadblock I see on paper is that none of Baltimore’s eight top-100 prospects are pitchers, which the Angels sorely need even with Ohtani in the fold. There’s also the reality that Baltimore GM Mike Elias isn’t about to gut the farm system he has meticulously built over the last five years for a few months of Ohtani, even with the O’s in playoff position and an elite starter or two short of an effective postseason rotation. But it sure would be fun to see a sense of urgency from this front office after it initiated a sell-off last year despite being in striking distance of a playoff spot.
Philadelphia Phillies
The offer: 2B Bryson Stott, RHP Mick Abel (Phillies No. 2 prospect, No. 42 overall), OF Gabriel Rincones Jr. (No. 7, N/A), RHP Alex McFarlane (No. 8, N/A), C Rickardo Perez (No. 15, N/A)
Manager Rob Thomson announced Sunday that Bryce Harper would debut at first base this week after being limited to designated hitter duties since undergoing Tommy John surgery in the offseason. With Harper set to no longer occupy the DH slot on a daily basis and the Phillies in the thick of the wild-card race, it seems like the perfect time for the reigning National League champions to take a big swing to try and get back to the World Series. Team owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowksi are known for such blockbuster moves, but this one might be out of their range considering what they have to work with.
Philadelphia doesn’t possess the organizational depth as many of Ohtani’s other potential suitors, as their farm system was ranked 21st by MLB Pipeline during the preseason—the worst of any team mentioned in this article (except for the Angels, naturally, who were 29th). So the Phils would have to relinquish their breakout rookie in Stott and one of their top two pitching prospects to get the Angels to consider coming to the table.
While the Phillies may refuse to part ways with MLB’s top pitching prospect in Andrew Painter, Abel was ranked as the top high school pitcher available in the 2020 draft class and also has the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter. Even so, most teams could offer a better pair than Stott and Abel as a base for an Ohtani trade, so it’d take several more of Philadelphia’s mid-level prospects—perhaps even a six-for-one-deal—to round out what would be a quantity-over-quality offer.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Rays
The offer: SS Carson Williams (Rays’ No. 2 prospect, No. 23 overall), 1B Kyle Manzardo (No. 4, No. 38), LHP Mason Montgomery (No. 5, N/A), RHP Evan Reifert (No. 27, N/A), RHP Luis Patiño
Against all odds, Tampa Bay may emerge as a viable trade destination for Ohtani. The Rays have one of the best and deepest farm systems in the sport (ranked No. 6 by MLB Pipeline ahead of the season), are in the middle of what could be their best season in franchise history, are desperate to win their first World Series title, won’t have the money to acquire Ohtani via free agency and would benefit massively from a marketing standpoint as a team that has always struggled to put butts in seats at Tropicana Field. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander also recently told MLB Network’s Jim Bowden that they have the financial resources to be active in the trade market, meaning the approximate $13 million left to be paid to Ohtani this season wouldn’t be a prohibitive price tag … especially with all the tickets and jerseys he’d sell.
The trade outlined above includes three of the Rays’ top five prospects, including two of the top 50 league wide. Williams and Manzardo could make up half of the Angels’ future infield, as Williams, a Minor League Gold Glove winner last year, is good enough defensively to push fellow first-round pick Zach Neto to second. One issue I could see arising here is that the Rays, like the Orioles, don’t have any can’t-miss pitching prospects lurking in the minors. Montgomery and Reifert have consistently racked up strikeouts in the minors as a starter and reliever, respectively, and both could be ready to debut in the majors next year—but they aren’t considered top-100 prospects. L.A. wouldn’t be able to pry loose Taj Bradley amid his promising rookie season, but perhaps taking a flier on a post-hype breakout candidate in Patiño, who is still just 23, would help in that regard.
Even if this isn’t the exact package to get a deal across the line—in fact, if any of the above proposals come to pass, the first thing we’re doing is buying a lottery ticket—Tampa Bay has just about all the ingredients of an ideal trade partner to pull off what would be one of the biggest midseason trades in MLB history.
Will it happen? Almost certainly not. This sort of move isn’t the Rays’ style, and It’s hard to imagine Ohtani and the media circus that follows him relocating to the St. Petersburg area for the next few months. But if we’ve learned anything over the last decade-plus, it’s that the Rays know how to use every last resource at their disposal to build a good baseball team.
