By this time next week, it will all be over. We’ll know which teams acquired starting pitchers Luis Castillo, José Quintana and Noah Syndergaard. We’ll see where the Cubs sent All-Star catcher Willson Contreras and closer David Robertson, and if they dealt All-Star outfielder Ian Happ. We’ll learn whether the Red Sox, Giants and other fringe contenders punted on this season or decided to make a final charge for a wild-card berth.
And we’ll also find out the fates of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, the two players who cannot possibly be traded for equal value—except maybe in exchange for each other—but for the sake of our game shouldn’t have to play for irrelevant, losing clubs during the most exciting stretch of the baseball calendar.
If Soto and Ohtani remain with the Nationals and Angels, respectively, for the rest of the season, they almost certainly also will stay with them until they reach free agency. Their value on the trade market will never be higher than it is now, because whichever teams acquire the two stars will get them for at least two pennant races. Ohtani becomes a free agent after next season; Soto, after 2024.
If the Nationals and Angels don’t trade Soto and Ohtani now, they better be damned sure they can build a playoff-bound team while they still have the two players on their rosters. Anything else would be two giant middle fingers to the fans of their teams and an injustice to the game.
Unless you’re a Nats fan, the good news is Soto is probably going to be traded, as Tom Verducci wrote for us at the beginning this week. There are as many as 15 teams who could be in the mix for him, and general manager Mike Rizzo knows what he is doing. There’s a lot of uncertainty right now because the Lerner family is looking to sell the team. Many times, new ownership can be exciting (see: the Mets), but this time it’s not. The Lerners and Rizzo assembled one of the most successful organizations over the last decade; from 2012 to ‘19, the Nats made the playoffs five times, finished first in the NL East four times and won the first World Series in franchise history. Just before the All-Star break, I wrote that the smart move for the Nationals would be to spend the money they were going to use on a Soto extension to build a contender around him in his final two years, because I didn’t see how they could get a return package that would come close to Soto’s value in a trade. That’s still true, but at least if they move him now, they’ll get far more than they would if they wait.
Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated
The Angels, on the other hand, probably won’t trade Ohtani. And, unfortunately, they probably won’t make the playoffs next year, either. For a long time, I was optimistic that this would change. I was fooled by the incremental improvements they made to their rotation and bullpen over the offseason and blinded by their strong start to the year. To paraphrase the great Jackson Browne, I was a hold out. But it took me all this time to figure out something I already should have known: Arte Moreno doesn’t care about winning. He cares about the optics of winning. He cares about stars because fans will pay to watch them play, even if the team is bad. He opens up the wallet for Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton before them, because he knows they will be worth far more to him in marketing, merchandising and gate revenue than the millions and hundreds of millions of dollars he’s paying them. Doling out these mega-deals provides the cover he needs to avoid accusations that he’s tanking, even if the end result—missing the postseason—is the same.
So, the Angels are floating the possibility that they’ll trade Ohtani and get the massive haul of prospects back to make it seem like they are committed to trying to win sometime before Trout retires. Their front office is probably earnest in their attempts to find a suitable trade partner. But in the end, it’ll be fruitless. Moreno loves his stars, and he’s not going to get rid of the brightest of them all until he absolutely needs to do so. That will come after the 2023 season, when Ohtani departs in free agency for a winner. Moreno will have milked as much money as possible from Ohtani’s superstardom while paying him far, far less than what the two-way sensation is worth.
That sounds depressing as hell. And this newsletter, as I wrote last week, is meant to make baseball fans smile. That’s especially true in the days leading into the trade deadline. So before we get on to the five tools, here’s a few things to get you all jazzed for the frenzy to come in the days ahead.
The Orioles!
I am so ready for them to do a buy/sell hybrid, similar to what the Mariners did last year, as they hope to make a surprising push for a wild-card spot. Like the 2021 Mariners, I think the O’s are still a year away from playing postseason baseball. But the fact that there’s even a chance for Baltimore to make the playoffs is worth celebrating.
The Mariners!
I am also so ready to watch Julio Rodríguez in the playoffs. You know Jerry Dipoto is cooking up some spicy trades as we speak, possibly even for Soto. That would be so, so fun!
The Padres!
The Dads are also hungry for the playoffs. Even if they don’t run down the Dodgers in the NL West, they are pushing hard for that first wild-card spot, which would secure them home-field advantage for every game in the first round’s best-of-three series. Soto is also a fit for the Padres, who have a great rotation but need to add some depth to their top-heavy lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also begun taking on-field batting practice and is getting closer to returning from wrist surgery. A lineup with Tatis, Soto and Manny Machado batting back-to-back-to-back? Yes, please!
Have any questions for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.
1. THE OPENER
Adam Hunger/Getty Images
“In what could be their ace’s final season in Queens, the Mets will have to answer a question: [Jacob] deGrom bullies friend and foe alike. Can he bully his own body?”
That’s Stephanie Apstein, writing in her revealing Daily Cover story about baseball’s best pitcher. She spoke with current and former Mets players and coaches, opposing hitters and others in deGrom’s orbit to profile an immensely talented and well compensated bully. His only weakness is that for over a year now he hasn’t been healthy. Injury after injury has been the consequence of his dominance.
He’s scheduled to make his season debut next week against the Nationals in D.C. We’ll see if his body can hold up.
You can read Stephanie’s entire story below:
Will Mets Ace Jacob deGrom Get the Last Laugh? by Stephanie Apstein
2. ICYMI
Let’s run through some of our other great SI baseball stories from this week.
The Biggest MLB Trade Deadline Needs for Every Playoff Contender by Emma Baccellieri
Here are the areas where the Yankees, Dodgers and other teams in the postseason picture should look to upgrade.
The Andrew Benintendi Trade Likely Spells the End for Joey Gallo With the Yankees by Matt Martell
Manager Aaron Boone all but admitted Gallo’s time with the team was nearly over—hours before New York made the deal with the Royals.
Five ‘Angel and Devil’ Trade Deadline Debates by Will Laws
Buy or Sell? Let’s weigh the options for these teams in playoff contention.
The Nationals Have No Choice but to Trade Juan Soto by Tom Verducci
Never before has a player this young, this historically great and this far from free agency been dealt. That should change within the next week.
3. WORTH NOTING from Matt Martell
In non-trade-deadline news, Rob Manfred is probably going to have to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee about MLB’s antitrust exemption and its impact on Minor League Baseball.
This morning, Manfred sent the Committee a 17-page letter in response to the Committee’s inquiry for “information about the impact of this unique exemption on a range of issues affecting Minor League players, including contract rights, team contraction, lockouts and work stoppages, and treatment of international prospects.” In Manfred’s letter, which was obtained by Sports Illustrated, the commissioner made the baffling argument that revoking the antitrust exemption would not improve working conditions for minor leaguers. Instead, he wrote, “the baseball antitrust exemption has meaningfully improved the lives of Minor League players, including their terms and conditions of employment, and has enabled the operators of Minor League affiliates to offer professional baseball in certain communities that otherwise could not economically support a professional baseball team.” This is false, and Manfred knows it.
In actuality, because of the antitrust exemption, MLB does not have to pay minor leaguers minimum wage. Minor league players are not covered by the MLB Players’ Association or any other union, and therefore do not have the protections of a Collective Bargaining Agreement and labor law. Many minor leaguers have to seek outside employment during the season, and sometimes during it.
“It is reasonable to question the premise that MLB is treating the Minor Leaguers fairly,” Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the Majority Whip and Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee said in a statement. “Commissioner Manfred’s response to our bipartisan request for information raises more questions than it answers, and the discrepancies between today’s letter and the reality that minor league players are experiencing reinforce the importance of the Committee’s bipartisan review of the century-old baseball antitrust exemption. We need to make sure MLB is stepping up to the plate when it comes to fair treatment of players and communities, which is why the Judiciary Committee is planning an upcoming hearing on the issue.”
It’s going to be a lot harder for Manfred to claim the same things he did in the letter today when he has to testify under oath in front of the Committee. Hopefully, these hearings will be televised.
If you want to know more about the hardships of many minor league players, you should read Emma Baccellieri’s excellent column from last week.
Rob Manfred’s Latest Gaffe Is About More Than Just the Sound Bite by Emma Baccellieri
Minor league players don’t make a living wage, no matter what premise the commissioner rejects. Pressure is mounting for him to change that.
4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe
Friday night’s marquee pitching matchup is in Houston, where Cy Young Award contender (maybe the favorite) Justin Verlander will face reigning Cy winner Robbie Ray. Ray got knocked around hard in his last time out against the Astros, allowing six runs on 10 hits in three innings. Prior to that, he had a 1.36 ERA with 58 strikeouts over his previous seven starts. Verlander, meanwhile, leads the majors in wins (13) and is third in ERA (1.86), and has given up one earned run or fewer in 13 of his 18 outings this season.
Finally—is this the last time Juan Soto will play at Nationals Park as a home player? Let the entire baseball world be on #HugWatch—in Washington and elsewhere around the league—from now through Tuesday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline.
5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri
A good inside-the-park home run will have an element of slapstick to it: To happen in the first place, after all, it requires some kind of misplay or misunderstanding. A great inside-the-park home run is an entire comedic narrative unto itself. And Trey Mancini’s on Thursday fit the bill. Poor Rays outfielder Josh Lowe lost the ball in the sun, only to find it again when it struck him in the face, knocking him down. In what could be Mancini’s last plate appearance as an Oriole at Camden Yards, no less! Poetry.
