In the lead up to New Zealand’s 2017 election, Jacinda Ardern, the then soon-to-be prime minister, called the climate emergency her generation’s “nuclear-free moment” – a reference to the bold stance the country took against nuclear power.
Her comments signalled renewed urgency in shaping New Zealand’s response to combatting one of the globe’s greatest existential threats. But six years on, with the country’s general election just days away, the climate emergency has been sidelined against discussions of crime, “co-governance” and the cost of living.
“There is a real disappointing lack of leadership across the political spectrum in response to [climate change],” said Nicola Toki, the chief executive of Forest & Bird – one of the country’s leading conservation organisations.
While each party has released environmental policies, questions and meaningful debate about the climate emergency have either been conspicuously absent or reduced to a few comments in many of the major televised leadership debates.
“We had a leadership debate a few weeks ago where there was not one reference to climate, yet Southland was being flooded and there were two significant wildfires through the eastern South Island,” Toki said. “It’s a bit terrifying we are not connecting the dots.”
On Wednesday, the ministry for the environment and Stats NZ released its latest report on New Zealand’s atmosphere and climate, which paints a bleak picture for the country’s biodiversity, glaciers, weather patterns, oceans and economy.
The three-yearly update provides further evidence that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are putting pressure on the country’s climate.
“We are experiencing variations in rainfall patterns, more frequent medium-term droughts, ocean warming to record levels, and glacial ice retreat,” the report said.
“Sea levels around parts of Aotearoa have risen twice as fast in the past 60 years as they did in the first half of the 20th century. Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity, causing loss and damage to nature and people.”
In February, the country experienced how devastating extreme weather can be, after Cyclone Gabrielle wreaked havoc across parts of the North Island. Despite being considered New Zealand’s worst storm this century – killing 11 people - it has garnered few mentions on the campaign trail.
Recovery from recent extreme events such as Cyclone Gabrielle will take years and if these events become frequent, environmental degradation will be compounded, says Cate Macinnis-Ng, an associate professor in the University of Auckland’s school of biological sciences.
“We can no longer dismiss climate change,” Macinnis-Ng said, adding that she was “alarmed to see so little mention of climate change in the election coverage.”
While there has been a “shocking silence on climate change”, Toki said there has also been a total lack of conversation about the threats to New Zealand’s unique biodiversity.
“For parties to not be talking about the very thing that defines us as a country is probably the most disappointing.”
‘A lot at stake’
The latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor, which tracks the issues the country cares about, found climate change to be the public’s sixth biggest concern behind the cost of living, crime, housing, healthcare and the economy. It polled higher than education, transport, taxation and inequality.
“For voters, climate change is a key issue”, says Bronwyn Hayward, a political science professor at the University of Canterbury, who was a lead author on the UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
“[But] major policy and big visionary conversations are not being had by the key members of the two major parties, and that’s partly a function of it being a very close race.”
Hayward suspects New Zealand’s major parties will be watching the opening up of culture wars and the breakdown of climate consensus in places like the UK and be taking a cautionary approach as a result.
“Both the [major party] leaders are playing an extremely conservative, risk-averse strategy of offering tiny policies matching each other’s policy to try and catch a centre voter,” Hayward says, adding that ultimately, this pushes voters towards smaller parties focusing on climate change, such as the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori.
On current polling, the Greens are poised to win a record 15 seats in parliament.
While there is broad consensus between the major parties over reducing emissions and supporting the Paris Climate Agreement, what action will look like in practice has become very uncertain, Hayward said. Polling suggests the centre-right National party will need the support of the minor libertarian Act party and the populist New Zealand First party to form a government under New Zealand’s coalition system.
“[National’s] biggest problem will be the smaller parties who have both got very reactionary policies on climate”, Hayward said adding that Act, among other environmental policy rollbacks, has committed to disestablishing the Climate Commission, an independent body to help New Zealand transition to a low-emissions future.
Hayward said it was “remarkable” that in the last round of the IPCC reports all governments agreed that political will was the key ingredient to combatting climate change, yet in this election there was a lack of visionary and aspirational policy.
“There’s a lot at stake this election and [climate change] is not being given the airtime it deserves,” she said.
