The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells paints, coating, and related products. Valued at $89.5 billion by market cap, the company’s Sherwin-Williams branded products are sold exclusively through a chain of more than 5,000 company operated stores and facilities, while additional brands are sold through leading mass merchandisers, home centers, and more.
Shares of this coating giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. SHW has gained 14.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.5%. However, in 2025, SHW stock is up 4.6%,surpassing SPX’s 2.9% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, SHW’s outperformance is apparent compared to Vanguard Materials Index Fund ETF (VAW). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 6.3% over the past year. However, the ETF’s 5% gains on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s returns over the same time frame.
SHW’s underperformance is driven by economic challenges, including fluctuating market demand, increasing raw material costs, and higher interest rates. Additionally, its consumer brands and performance coatings segments have declined, impacted by weaker demand, internal cost control, and foreign currency losses.
On Jan. 30, SHW shares closed up more than 1% after reporting its Q4 results. Its adjusted EPS of $2.09 surpassed Wall Street expectations of $2.07. The company’s revenue was $5.3 billion, falling short of Wall Street forecasts of $5.31 billion. For fiscal 2025, SHW expects its adjusted EPS to be between $11.65 and $12.05.
For fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect SHW’s EPS to grow 5.9% to $12 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the 25 analysts covering SHW stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 15 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” seven “Holds,” and one “Moderate Sell.”
This configuration is more bullish than a month ago, with 13 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Feb. 3, RBC Capital kept an “Outperform” rating on SHW and lowered the price target to $415, implying a potential upside of 16.7% from current levels.
The mean price target of $397.32 represents an 11.8% premium to SHW’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $444 suggests an upside potential of 24.9%.
