LAS VEGAS – To illustrate just how quickly Shavkat Rakhmonov has ascended the welterweight ladder, we need look no further than his betting line history.
When Rakhmonov made his promotional debut at UFC 254 a little more than three years ago as a 12-0 champ from M-1 Global, he was just a -140 favorite against Alex Oliveira. He won with a first-round submission. Against Michel Prazeres, who was 26-3 at the time, he moved to a 3-1 favorite. And he was about the same against Carlston Harris, whom he made victim of his first post-fight bonus with a sensational spinning hook kick.
Then at 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Oliveira, Prazeres and Harris, Rakhmonov was matched up with longtime welterweight contender Neil Magny. And while those three are solid, no doubt, Magny’s name and consistent top 15 ranking carried with it a little more cache.
The odds should have been closer than those Rakhmonov had against Harris, right? But instead, he was a roughly 5-1 favorite. The level of competition went up – but so, too, had the betting public’s understanding of the level of talent the prospect possessed. He took Magny out with a second-round submission. And in March, against Geoff Neal at UFC 285, he was an even bigger favorite – and again came through with his third straight bonus-winning stoppage.
So to see Rakhmonov (17-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) open around a 6-1 favorite against two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson (17-6-1 MMA, 12-6-1 UFC) at UFC 296 on Saturday is a staggering acknowledgement of the expectations for the 29-year-old, who has been itching to return since a fight with Kelvin Gastelum had to be scrapped in September.
“It felt very good (to find out whom I was fighting),” Rakhmonov told MMA Junkie at Wednesday’s UFC 296 media day at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. “Thompson is a great fighter. If you don’t look at his age, he’s shown his level. He’s a top fighter, and that’s why I’m excited. I was upset (Gastelum) got injured, but it’s a sport and I understand. I was just trying to focus on my training (during the layoff).
“Stephen Thompson has a tricky style and I have to adapt to his karate-like style. Some of my training partners were imitating it, so I think I’m ready for the fight. I had to make minor adjustments because of his footwork and his kick-heavy style. I worked on it to adapt to his style.”
All 17 of Rakhmonov’s wins have been finishes with nine submissions and eight knockouts, making him dangerous everywhere, at least on paper. The placement of his fight with “Wonderboy,” the featured bout on the pay-per-view main card ahead of the flyweight and welterweight title fights, suggests it’s being closely watched by the UFC matchmaking brass.
And not surprisingly, Rakhmonov thinks if he beats Thompson, he’s right there for the winner between champion Leon Edwards and former interim champ Colby Covington, who headline the card.
“I believe I’m very close to a title shot. I just need to win,” he said. “Thompson is a great fighter … but I feel like I’m ready for anyone.”
UFC 296 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 296.
