In November, Rep. Sharice Davids, a Kansas Democrat, celebrated as she coasted to a 12-percentage point victory over Republican challenger Amanda Adkins. Less than a year later, she’s one of the most vulnerable Democratic members of Congress, according to her own political party.
“People need to realize that at every point in time politics are changing, voter coalitions are changing,” said Patrick Miller, a political science professor at the University of Kansas. “Certain communities are changing while others are not.”
A Democratic analysis of the district obtained by The Star found that Davids’ margin of victory was misleading. While she outperformed President Joe Biden’s 2020 margin in the district, she underperformed in areas where the old district and new district overlapped.
Democratic concerns may be strategic messaging to maintain a sense of urgency with Davids’ base. In 2022, when New York Times polling showed Davids up by double digits, the Davids campaign and the party were quick to dismiss it as inaccurate. She went on to win by about the margin the poll had predicted.
But according to the memo, Democrats are worried that in 2024 the electorate is likely to be less Democratic, creating a challenge for Davids to hold on to her seat.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last month put Davids on their list of 29 members who are most at risk of losing their seats in 2024, a way of raising money for the members who are in the most competitive districts in the country.
Days later, the National Republican Congressional Committee listed Davids as one of their top targets in 2024.
The attacks followed. As House Republicans push through bills that touch on the cultural issues of the day but have little chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate — like a bill blocking the federal government from banning gas stoves — they began criticizing Davids as too liberal, an attempt to undercut her moderate image back home.
“Sharice Davids has always been a liberal at heart but in the last several months she has veered to the extreme: backing lower penalties for violent crime, supporting a ban on gas stoves and voting against unleashing American energy production,” said Delanie Bomar, a spokeswoman for the NRCC. “In 2024, voters will be evaluating these hard-left votes for the first time and they will hold her accountable.”
Republicans largely hold out hope for the district because of numbers. There are more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the district — though party registration does not always align with how people vote. Under the current boundaries, the district went for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and Republican Donald Trump in 2016 before flipping to Biden in 2020. And Sen. Jerry Moran, a Republican who handily won reelection last year, won the district.
No Republican candidate has filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to challenge Davids as of mid-April. Still, Davids’ campaign announced this week that she raised more than $500,000, matching a similar haul from the final stretch of the 2022 campaign, in which she raised a total of around $7.9 million.
“My job is to represent this community, and now more than ever, our district needs someone in Congress who is going to stand up for what we believe in,” Davids said. “Whether that’s bringing good-paying jobs back home to Kansas or protecting our rights, I’m proud to have the trust and support of so many in the Kansas Third District.”
This isn’t the first time Davids has been a target. There was a wave of concern among some Democrats in 2022 after the Republican-controlled Legislature redrew the congressional boundaries, turning her district from the most racially diverse in the state to the least. The new district lost Democratic-leaning voters in Wyandotte County and added Republican-leaning voters in Miami, Anderson and Franklin counties.
The changes made the politics of Johnson County the most important for determining which political party wins the congressional seat. That means it handed over power to white suburban voters.
“Really, if you want to talk about this district intelligently, we need to talk beyond is it a good year for Democrats or not,” Miller said. “We need to talk about what is the data, what is the trend of the white suburban voter.”
Across the country, white suburban voters are increasingly voting for Democrats. Many suburban voters rejected Trump in 2020, a trend that was accelerated by the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning the constitutional right to an abortion. The shift comes at a time when rural voters are increasingly voting for Republican candidates, fundamentally changing the two political party’s coalitions.
“Suburban America — really for 20 plus years, but especially since 2016 — has been getting bluer,” Miller said. “It’s a trend we’re in the middle of. And we don’t know from one election to the next whether that trend is going to continue, or how much bluer.”
Some of that trend depends on candidates. Twice, Republicans nominated Amanda Adkins, who managed Sam Brownback’s 2004 Senate campaign and chaired the state party when he was elected governor in 2010, to go up against Davids.
Both cycles, Democrats were able to easily tie Adkins, a former Cerner executive, to the widely unpopular Brownback. Last year, they tied her to conservative abortion policies in an election year when abortion rights were one of the top issues for Democratic voters. And in a relatively moderate district, Adkins campaigned with conservatives like Sen. Ted Cruz, who objected to the certification of the 2020 presidential election.
State Rep. Stephanie Clayton, a Johnson County Democrat, called Adkins “too Brownback-y” for the district.
“I wouldn’t say that it’s because of the district,” Clayton said, of Davids victory. “I would say it was probably because of the opponent and the solid campaign.”
Clayton, a former moderate Republican who switched over to the Democratic Party, said she believes Republicans have a messaging problem in the district.
The conservative wing of the Republican Party has emphasized cultural issues, like opposition to transgender rights, to spur their base voters. Clayton said the use of the word “woke” and the focus on cultural issues alienates the type of moderate voter who sways elections in Johnson County.
“If they can just act like someone that we would feel comfortable inviting to the dinner table, someone who wouldn’t put their elbows on it, or their feet, someone who would chew with their mouths closed instead of yelling,” Clayton said.
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