An American baseball player once commented that it was tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Presumably he went on to have a stab at making a few about the past.
Or something like that.
Anyway, Shane Williams evidently has no such concerns about the forecasting business.
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Writing in his column in The Rugby Paper, he expects Warren Gatland to name a raft of players the legendary wing sees as the old guard, among them Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tipuric up front, along with George North, Liam Williams and Leigh Halfpenny.
To go with those, Wales’ top try scorer of all time also lists what he styles as nailed-on selections, led by Adam Beard and including the 6ft 8in’s lock Ospreys team-mate Gareth Thomas.
“In the short term, Gatland is going to want to hit the ground running and that means leaning on the established players in the current side,” says Williams.
“Adam Beard is one of his proteges and looks a dead cert to start in the second row.
“Ospreys prop Gareth Thomas has been one of the finds of the last 18 months and is fast building a big reputation at scrum time and around the field.
“He looks like another player who will go straight into the starting XV.”
Beard is on course to complete 50 Wales caps before the year is out and that would be some achievement for a player who found himself out in the cold in the early part of Wayne Pivac’s reign as head coach. Beard returned to favour on the back of hard work, making such progress in his game that he was named national vice-captain for last term’s Six Nations, 15 months after falling out of favour. He is a player who takes responsibility and he has developed into a high-class lineout forward.
Thomas, too, has been on a sharp upward trajectory, confirming his worth in the recent pre-Christmas Tests as he recovered from a challenging outing against the All Blacks to bang in strong displays against Argentina, Georgia and Australia, with the loose-head one of the few Welsh players to emerge from the November games with his reputation enhanced. You can read more here about the game-changing Wales international who trained by lifting his giant mountain dog.
Others Williams sees as bolted-on selections include Tomos Williams — “at the moment he would be the next best scrum-half in the northern hemisphere to Antoine Dupont” — and tight-head prop Tomas Francis.
Many of the 30-somethings will be first choices, the former Ospreys man suggests.
All will be revealed next Tuesday, when Gatland names his line-up.
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