PHOENIX — Before Monday night’s series opener here with the Diamondbacks, Giants manager Gabe Kapler was asked if there was any added significance to these games, coming on the heels of a four-game sweep in Los Angeles and with so little time before the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
“Wherever you are in the baseball calendar, the goal is to win,” Kapler said. “Leading up to (Aug. 2), April 1 to April 10, September 1 to September 30, it’s always win as many games as possible. Should we put more emphasis on the Diamondbacks series than the Dodgers series? Or the Brewers series before that? Or the Cubs series after it? They all have an elevated level of significance, for any number of reasons and at any given time.”
Nevertheless, the Giants’ next seven games against losing opponents (three at 42-53 Arizona; four vs. 38-57 Chicago) will likely dictate the decisions of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi leading up to the deadline.
One of the biggest questions he will face: to deal, or not to deal, Carlos Rodón? The menacing left-hander is scheduled to make his second-to-last start before the deadline on Tuesday against Arizona. Before that, allow us to do a little of Zaidi’s work for him and present both sides of the argument.
Why the Giants should trade Rodón
Rodón has established himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers this season, accruing more wins above replacement than every starter in the majors besides Miami’s Cy Young front runner Sandy Alcantara.
He would have immense value on the trade market if he were to be made available.
While arms such as Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo and Oakland’s Frankie Montas come with the benefit of team control — unlike Rodón, who has already secured his ability to opt out after the season — Rodón could make the biggest impact for a contender this season.
The Giants could likely command at least one Top 100 prospect in a package for Rodón, which would help them restock a farm system that doesn’t have much depth behind shortstop Marco Luciano, left-handed starter Kyle Harrison and outfielder Luis Matos.
Trading established players for prospects, though, is always a risky bet.
Cleveland’s trade of Bartolo Colon in 2002 might be the biggest success story, bringing back three prospects who turned into impact major leaguers (Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips). A few years later, Cleveland received a young Michael Brantley in exchange for C.C. Sabathia. However, look at the Tigers’ haul for Justin Verlander: Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers, total WAR: 0.1 (versus Verlander’s 19.1 since the trade).
About that opt out: for all the reasons Rodón would be such a prized target at the trade deadline, he will almost certainly require a long-term investment on the open market this offseason (something Zaidi wasn’t willing to commit to Rodón’s predecessor, Kevin Gausman). Although Rodón said in a recent interview with this news organization that he has come to love life in the Bay Area, don’t expect him to take a dollar or a year less than his true value to stay with the Giants.
Why they shouldn’t trade Rodón
As one of the league’s most electric pitchers, Rodón’s starts have been must-watch entertainment in a stretch of baseball that hasn’t given fans many other reasons to tune in. Trading him would only further the trend of decreasing attendance and would signal that the team is waving the white flag on this season.
Even if the Giants hold on to Rodón and let him walk in the offseason, they could recoup some value with a compensatory pick in next June’s draft. That was the tactic Zaidi took in 2019, when he opted to hold on to Madison Bumgarner and closer Will Smith. They turned in to the No. 67 and No. 68 picks of the 2020 draft, netting a pitcher (Nick Swiney) and a shortstop (Jimmy Glowenke).
Before playoff expansion, the talk of selling while within two games of the wild card spot would be preposterous. And that’s exactly where they are in the fight for the last spot in a newly expanded field. If the Padres and Mets/Braves have a firm grasp on the top two wild card spots, then it’s really down to the Giants (48-47), Cardinals (51-46) and Phillies (49-46) for the third and final spot.
Those aren’t bad odds, and should the Giants crack the postseason field, the one-two punch of Rodón and Logan Webb could carry them a long way — at least out of the three-game wild card round.
There’s value — both in raw monetary terms and general fan interest — in making the postseason. It would carry extra meaning for this organization, which hasn’t made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 2002-03.
