SCOTTISH independence support has surged to 56% in the latest polling from Ipsos Mori just two weeks after the UK Supreme Court ruled Scotland could not legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster’s consent.
This marks a change from the last 18 months, where Yes and No have generally been neck and neck.
Below are seven things we learned from the latest result.
Indy support continues to rise
This is the second poll since the Supreme Court ruling. In a poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton, 52% of Scots said they would vote Yes when people who answered “don’t know” were removed.
With the “don’t knows” included, support for Yes was at 49% which was an increase of five points compared to September 2021.
The Ipsos Mori poll released on Wednesday meanwhile put Yes support up six points since its last poll was carried out in May.
In The National’s exclusive analysis from Mark McGeoghegan, he said it was hard to pinpoint a single issue which has led to the rise in support but that Liz Truss’s time as PM was likely a factor.
He added that pro-independence campaigners would point to the Supreme Court ruling as a major turning point as well as the cost of living crisis.
What do people make of a de facto referendum?
As well as the surge in support for independence, Ipsos also found that the SNP would win a record 58 seats in the next General Election.
The previous poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton contained bad news for the de facto referendum plan.
At the time, just 41% of Scots said they would vote SNP and 2% said they would vote Green, which would put votes for pro-indy parties at 43%.
However, the latest polling marks a major change in that regard with 53% saying they would vote SNP and a further 2% voting Green, pushing the pro-independence vote share to 55%.
Split on timing of independence
In spite of the increased support for leaving the UK, Scots still remain divided on the timing of indyref2.
Nicola Sturgeon had aimed to hold a vote in 2023, although these plans have been made unlikely by the Supreme Court’s recent judgment.
Polling showed 35% want to see indyref2 before the end of 2023, while 34% have backed holding it between 2024 and 2026.
Around 17% believed it should take place further in the future.
Support surges among over-65s
Support for independence by age was as follows:
- 16-24: 73% Yes
- 25-34: 68% Yes
- 35-44: 61% Yes
- 45-54: 53% Yes
- 55-64: 47% Yes
- 65+: 45% Yes
According to Olaf Stando, who works in digital for the SNP, this marks “the highest independence support among over-65s in any poll for years”.
🏴 Support for Scottish independence by age, from the latest Ipsos poll: 16-24: 73% YES 25-34: 68% YES 35-44: 61% YES 45-54: 53% YES 55-64: 47% YES 65+: 45% YES 🔎 The highest independence support among over-65s in any poll for years - that's particularly encouraging.
— Olaf Stando 🌻 (@olafdoesstuff) December 7, 2022
However, he did add that work still needed to be done to change the views of those over the age of 55.
What has happened to Labour?
Both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer’s ratings have fallen amongst Scots. Results showed just 40% were satisfied with the Scottish Labour leader’s performance, while 37% were dissatisfied.
Although that may seem on balance positive, Sarwar’s net satisfaction has fallen from +19 in May to +3 now.
Just 37% of Scots were satisfied with Starmer as leader of the UK Labour Party, while 50% are dissatisfied. His net satisfaction has fallen from -2 in May to -13 now.
Support for Yes in every region
This is the first time where every region in Scotland has backed independence. The full results were as follows:
- Glasgow: 60%
- South: 58%
- Mid Scotland & Fife: 57%
- West: 56%
- Central: 54%
- North East: 54%
- Lothian: 53%
- Highlands & Islands: 52%
Nicola Sturgeon remain the most popular leader
The poll also asked the public’s thoughts on party leaders and more than half of Scots hold a positive view of the First Minister.
Scottish Greens co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater also hold positive net favourability ratings at +1 and +2 respectively.
The poll also had bad news for Alex Cole-Hamilton, the LibDem chief who on campaign leaflets has claimed to be "the most popular party leader in Scotland".
The latest Ipsos poll found that Cole-Hamilton has a net rating of negative 16. 36% of respondents said they did not know how he was doing in his role, the largest for any Scottish party leader.
When it came to standing up for Scotland’s interests, 60% of people said they had a “great deal/quite a lot” of trust in the SNP.
Scots were asked about a range of issues and whether or not they had trust in the respective parties to deal with them.
These ranged from education to economy to managing the NHS. On every issue less than 25% of people said they had trust in the Conservatives.
Although Labour’s trust figures were slightly higher, they did not have the support of more than 50% of people on any issue.
