Leaving Formula 1’s 2024 Belgian Grand Prix, Mercedes was dealing with the joy of what turned out to be a win after all for long-time race leader Lewis Hamilton, but the hurt (and embarrassment) of losing George Russell’s on-the-road triumph after his one-stop gamble had seemingly paid off.
The main theory as to why Russell’s W15 ended up underweight is included in our regular post-race run down of all the big talking points from each F1 weekend. At Spa, this included all the latest 2025 driver market intrigue, Bruno Famin soon to be departing his position running the Alpine squad and the early expectations of Mattia Binotto’s signing at Sauber.
From the race, we learned just how much harder things are for Red Bull at this litmus test track of just how good its RB20 challenger is now relative to the competition and must ask whether Lando Norris has a problem to address regarding race starts.
Here then, is our pick of the storylines from Spa.
1. Another painful mistake costs Mercedes a valuable result
Mercedes was always set for some angst to follow its stunning Belgian GP 1-2, as long-time leader Hamilton was suddenly beaten by Russell’s strategy gamble. But, instead, he leaves with 105th GP win and Russell had the “heartbreak” of a post-race disqualification.
The main theory on why Russell’s car came in 1.5kg down on the minimum weight rule centred on the likelihood his surprise one-stopper meant his tyres wore down and lost so much mass – “around 1kg” per tyre, per Pirelli motorsport boss Mario Isola – that it tripped Mercedes up on its pre-race weight calculations.
Toto Wolff said afterwards his team "clearly made a mistake". This all calls to mind Hamilton losing his GP second place at Austin last year (along with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc) for Mercedes’ plank weak expectations on that bumpy track being off due to the sprint race weekend meaning it lacked practice data.
The rain at Spa and then the team opting to switch away from its new floor after Friday’s running suggests something similar may have happened again here.
2. Verstappen can’t always recover to Spa victory
For the third year in a row, Verstappen started down the order at Spa having topped qualifying. But unlike in 2022 and 2023, he couldn’t get back to take another win in front of his adoring local fans.
In fact, given how much the competition has caught up and with the apparently ever-increasing dirty air factor this generation of F1 cars were supposed to have solved, plus the shorter DRS zone on the Kemmel straight this year, Red Bull was forecasting that fifth was only possible this time.
Verstappen at least achieved that and moved up to fourth with Russell’s DQ. The expectation Perez would at least finish on the podium in the other RB20 and failing to do so is a big factor in what Red Bull now does with his F1 future.
Verstappen was at least pleased to have extended his points lead over Norris by two to 78, while his team is 42 points ahead of McLaren after another big swing to the orange team.
“It was better to gain points than lose points,” Verstappen said afterwards. “And today could have been either way, because he was very fast behind me. But at the same time, I was also hunting in front of me.”
3. Norris might have a start problem
Norris topped FP2, but then alarmingly said “I’ve not felt super comfortable” with his MCL38 around this long lap. McLaren’s rivals reckoned it was turned up on engine power at that point, but with Saturday wet the ultimate pace picture at Spa was masked.
Norris started fourth and was seemingly set to progress well in the dry race with his skinnier rear wing compared to the Ferraris and Red Bull (less so compared to Mercedes).
But that didn’t work out. Mainly because “overtaking was more difficult”, per McLaren team boss Andrea Stella. But Norris was trapped in the pack – and eventually came home sixth on the road, fifth in the final classification – because he “misjudged it” exiting Turn 1. He clipped the gravel, losing momentum and three spots, and later said he was doing “just some stupid things” there.
“Turn 1, trying to stay out of trouble, trying to make sure there's a gap and not get hit, and then I put myself off the track,” he added.
Stella later explained “it looks like there are statistically some opportunities that tend to happen [to Norris] in the early stages of the race, so we need to check whether this is early stages of the race for a reason or it's just random”. And after Norris’s Spain and Hungary defeats followed less than stellar starts, this will be a key area for him to address if he really is able to mount a title challenge over the rest of 2024.
4.Williams is confident it will sign Sainz after all
Williams had seemingly been preparing to be disappointed in its long chase to sign Carlos Sainz for 2025 after the Spaniard had decided to wait even longer on making a call on his future in the wake of Alpine’s surprise renewed interest around Barcelona and uncertainty continuing at Red Bull and Ferrari.
But Williams team boss James Vowles said in Belgium that “out of 100” he’s now “more than 50%” confident of getting Sainz to partner Alex Albon after all, after further intense negotiations with the Spaniard.
"I think the odds are in our favour," Vowles added. "But I've been stung by this already once this year. So, let's see."
Vowles tentatively expects to finally know Williams’s full 2025 driver line-up by the end of this week, with the F1 summer shutdown looming next Monday. But he denied an exit clause would be granted to Sainz for 2026 should those plum Red Bull or Mercedes seats become available after all for that year.
5. How Audi's Binotto move has gone down with the drivers
The week between the Hungarian and Belgian weekends was shaken up considerably when Audi announced it had made a major change to the management at the top of its 2026 entry with the rebranded Sauber squad.
At Spa, it was a hot topic for many drivers. First, there was Haas’ Nico Hulkenberg, who had agreed to join Sauber next year when former team CEO Andreas Seidl and chairman of the board Oliver Hoffmann were in charge.
Their replacement with ex-Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto had left Hulkenberg in "a bit of a shock". Yet he said he was "not concerned" about any potential instability at Sauber/Audi and feels overall it is "good and positive news" that Audi's senior management are getting so involved.
Elsewhere, Valtteri Bottas said Binotto’s arrival “is going to reset” negotiations about staying at Sauber for 2025, which his team-mate Zhou Guanyu agreed with. Intriguingly, Sainz said when asked whether Binotto joining Sauber/Audi would influence his decision of where to sign for next year after all, given Audi’s long-term interest in him, that it was “not really” a factor. The Williams confidence above is significant here.
But Sainz then did not dismiss Sauber/Audi from his choice of signing for “a lot of teams” for 2025. Plus, Bottas suggested the decision over what he might do next season is “not completely relying on” Sainz’s bottle-neck situation in the driver market, as had previously been thought.
6. Famin to stand down as Alpine team principal
During the team principals’ press conference at Spa last Friday, Alpine team boss Bruno Famin revealed this would his last outing. This was after speculation had mounted that Hitech GP junior single-seater team boss Oliver Oakes is already being lined up to run Enstone.
Famin had carried on leading Alpine after taking over on an interim basis when Otmar Szafnauer was axed at this same race a year ago. He stepped up to be Alpine’s motorsport vice president in the summer or 2023 after joining to lead Renault’s Viry-Chatillon engine division at start of 2022.
He will now return to that role as Renault assesses how, as expected, it will transform Alpine into becoming a customer F1 squad.
“It will be clearer on that side if I step down from the team principal role at Alpine F1 and I will dedicate my time and I will step down from the team principal role by the end of August,” Famin said.
“And be fully dedicated to the Viry-Chatillon activities from 1 September.”
7. Ocon's Haas arrival
It had long been expected, but, after surprise suggestions that Williams might snare his services for 2025 that apparently didn’t go down too well within his soon-to-be new team, Esteban Ocon was announced as joining Haas for next year as the Spa event kicked off.
Ocon has signed what the American squad terms as a “multi-year” deal and will now partner F1 rookie Oliver Bearman in Haas’s all-new 2025 line-up. Ocon’s status as an F1 race winner was prized by team owner Gene Haas, given the squad’s tough run with two inexperienced drivers (Mick Schumacher and Nikita Mazepin) in 2021.
“When we sat down for the first time, [Haas team boss Ayao Komatsu] explained to me about his plans going forward, which were very clear,” Ocon said last Thursday.
Ben Hunt: Why Ocon will be a good fit for Haas
“They have a clear target, which is still in humble terms – not showing off – which is what I like as well. But they have very clear plans of improving from where they are and they are already starting that, as you can see this year. They've been clearly improving their performance, the car itself. And the plans are obviously quite big and quite impressive looking forward. So, it was a decision that, obviously, I took that I'm very happy with.”
