The New England Patriots have been teetering towards mediocrity ever since Tom Brady left in 2020. But the scales may have finally flipped to the Patriots being one of the worst teams in the entire NFL.
The Patriots haven’t scored an offensive touchdown since Pharoah Brown’s solo touchdown performance against the New York Jets in Week 3.
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I can go on and on about how it is time for Bill Belichick to be out as the Patriots coach and general manager, but I will keep it simple. Quite frankly, the game has passed him by. The team is lacking talent, and they’re making continuous mistakes that coaching should have fixed by now.
It’s not just this year, either. These issues can be traced back to 2019, which was the final year with Tom Brady.
Teams that start 1-4 make the playoffs just 2.9 percent of the time.
In light of the Patriots’ terrible start and likely another failed year of making the playoffs, it’s time to actually answer the “how” in the Patriots’ succession plan. Today, we’re delving into what that could look like, while also detailing a step-by-step plan leading up to the 2024 season.
Step 1: Fire Bill Belichick
Many fans might want to “fire the GM, not the coach,” but we are past that. Belichick has not proven anything these last few years as a coach or a general manager, and it is time to move on for the better of the franchise.
I do not think there will be a situation where Belichick is outright fired, but it could turn into a mutually parting of ways between the two sides.
In this scenario, to fix the team, Belichick is fired before the Week 6 matchup with the Raiders and replaced with an interim head coach.
Interim head coach: Joe Judge
Step 2: Move on from valued players on expiring contracts
As much as we want extensions galore and players to remain in New England, the reality is, when the Patriots name a new coach, they’ll likely want that person to be an offensive mind.
They’ll want someone to develop the next quarterback as well as working inline with a new general manager to rework the roster to fit into the new scheme.
So the Patriots will want as many assets as possible and less roster spots taken up by veterans with clear salary cap books to maneuver and reshape things how they see fit.
Here are the moves that would be made in this scenario:
EDGE Josh Uche traded to the Denver Broncos for a 2025 fourth-round pick
G Mike Onwenu traded to the Arizona Cardinals for a 2024 third-round pick
TE Hunter Henry traded to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2024 fifth-round pick
WR Kendrick Bourne traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2025 sixth-round pick
Step 3: Extend key free agents
The Patriots would ship off talent that might not fit in the new scheme, and that’s okay because there are two players on this roster who are pending free agents that should be scheme-versatile: safety Kyle Dugger and offensive tackle Trent Brown.
Both of those players, should be retained as they can be big parts of this team moving forward with any scheme.
Contracts:
Kyle Dugger: 4 years, $46 million
Trent Brown: 2 Years, $27 million
Step 4: Finish the year, hire new head coach and name GM
After adjusting the roster and moving on from Belichick, the team will likely be worse than they already are and put themselves in a prime spot to select a new quarterback at the top-half of the draft.
With all things considered, the Patriots should allow their young guys to get the majority of the reps and snaps. Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Jack Jones, Ameer Speed, Marte Mapu and Keion White should get those reps.
With that kind of approach, the Patriots would realistically finish with around a 3-14 record, which would keep the dream for drafting USC quarterback Caleb Williams alive.
The team’s next head coach would be current Lions offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson. Jerod Mayo would return as defensive coordinator with Bill O’Brien going out the door.
Johnson would get to create his own staff, and the same would be said for Mayo. Johnson would also be tasked with finding a new special teams coordinator, as Joe Judge, Cam Achord and Joe Houston would be let go.
The Patriots general manager would become Matt Groh, who has already seen his role increase each year. He would finally get a say in the personnel decisions.
It would give the Patriots separate duties for their head coach and general manager, but it wouldn’t lack collaboration between the two. Groh would also be a good bridge from the old regime to the new for the Krafts.
Step 5: Trade Mac Jones
If the Patriots fire Bill Belichick and fall to 3-14, Mac Jones would have played his last season in New England. However, he has enough promise still left in the tank where there could be interest from teams looking to acquire their next quarterback.
In this scenario, we found a suitor for Jones, and this team will get him in his fourth year, along with the opportunity to pick up his fifth year option, if they so choose.
Minnesota Vikings trade 2024 fourth-round pick and 2025 second-round pick for Mac Jones and a 2024 fifth-round pick.
With Kirk Cousins as a free agent, the Vikings could turn to the Ryan Tannehill method and try and revitalize Jones’ career. They’ll have a relatively cheap quarterback that can give them similar production.
They have the best receiver in the world in Justin Jefferson and a budding superstar in Jordan Addison. They’ll also have a solid run game, two premier offensive tackles and a top-five tight end in T.J. Hockenson.
This could end up being the ideal scenario for both teams.
Step 6: Free agency and key trades
The Patriots solidified their chances at No. 1 overall. Statistically, they would be one of the worst offenses the NFL has seen in almost 20 years.
Even with a good defense, they lack the firepower due to major injuries to linebacker Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez’s season-ending injuries, along with early injuries to corners Jack Jones and Marcus Jones.
Let’s take a look at the moves Groh and company would make to get the team into playoff contention.
Broncos trade WR Jerry Jeudy to the Patriots for a 2025 third-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick, and DeVante Parker
Patriots release WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
Patriots sign WR Josh Reynolds to a two-year, $20 million contract
Patriots re-sign TE Mike Gesicki to a two-year, $14.5 million contract
Patriots sign OT Yosh Nijman to a two-year, $10 million contract
Patriots sign DT Raekwon Davis to a four-year, $32 million contract
Patriots sign RB D’Andre Swift to a three-year, $27 million contract
Patriots acquire OT Luke Goedeke from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a 2026 third-round pick and 2024 fourth-round pick.
Remaining draft picks:
2024: 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 7
2025: 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7
2026: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
Step 7: NFL draft
With the Patriots revamping their roster, it is not likely that they will be a playoff contender in Year 1. So the majority of these moves are to set the team up for long-term success.
Let’s look at the Patriots’ 2024 NFL draft for the first three rounds.
Round 1: QB Caleb Williams
Round 2: WR Xavier Worthy
Round 3: C Sedrick Van Pran
Round 3 (FROM ARI): TE Cade Stover
Patriots 2024 projected roster and depth chart
Here’s a look at the projected depth chart. I kept players on the roster that are currently on the team, but the team will make decisions based on scheme for depth pieces. For the sake of this article, I kept this to notable players only.
Offense:
QB Caleb Williams, Will Grier, Malik Cunningham
HB: D’Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Josh Reynolds, Demario Douglas, Tyquan Thornton, Kayshon Boutte
TE: Mike Gesicki, Cade Stover
LT: Trent Brown
LG: Cole Strange
C: Sedrick Van Pran, Jake Andrews
RG: Atonio Mafi, Sidy Sow
RT: Luke Goedeke, Yosh Nijman
Defense:
EDGE: Matthew Judon, Anfernee Jennings, Keion White
DL: Christian Barmore, Raekwon Davis, Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise
LB: Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Marte Mapu, Mack Wilson
CB: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones
S: Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills, Adrian Phillips
ST: Brenden Schooler, Ameer Speed, Bryce Baringer, Chad Ryland, Joe Cardona
